The current position of the Senate leadership is that Garland will not even get a hearing. But some Republican senators have already indicated that they would meet with Garland, contrary to the previous “no meetings” policy. How likely would Garland’s confirmation be if the Senate did eventually vote on it?
Many factors will come into play, but one important piece of the puzzle is public opinion. As our research has shown, there is a striking connection between home-state public support for a Supreme Court nominee and how senators vote.
In particular, senators respond to the opinions of their fellow partisans back home. In other words, the votes of Democratic senators are driven by the opinion of their Democratic constituents, and the votes of Republican senators are driven by the opinion of their Republican constituents (controlling for ideology and other well-studied factors).