John Harwood for the NYT:

The number of white voters Mr. Trump attracts keeps shrinking as a share of the electorate, while the number of nonwhite voters he repels keeps growing, a pattern that helped President Obama retain the White House.

Yet few political trends continue in a straight line. Some Democrats have begun to cast a wary eye on Mr. Trump’s unconventional candidacy. And now a group of political demographers has calculated how Mr. Trump might pull off a narrow victory in November by slightly increasing the share of the white vote gained by Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee in 2012.

The group’s election model assumes continued growth among African-American, Latino, Asian-American and other nonwhite voters, as has occurred every four years since the Clinton era. It assumes that constituencies for both parties turn out at the same rates as in 2012.

Under those circumstances, the demographers found, an increase of four percentage points in the proportion of whites backing Mr. Trump could flip eight states that Mr. Obama carried in 2012. That would give Mr. Trump a slim edge of 49.7 percent to 48.6 percent in the popular vote and 315 electoral votes — 45 more than needed to win the White House.

“It’s a hard thing to pull off,” said Ruy Teixeira, a co-author of the analysiswho works at the left-leaning Center for American Progress. “But I certainly wouldn’t rule it out.”