CJ Roberts’ Empirical Prediction About Same Sex Marriage Acceptance is Almost Certainly Wrong

In his dissent in Obergefell v. Hodges CJ Roberts writes:

Stealing this issue from the people will for many cast a cloud over same-sex marriage, making a dramatic social change that much more difficult to accept.

That seems quite unlikely. Think of Loving v. Va, striking down bans on interracial marriage, and laws barring de jure discrimination generally. This has not led to more discrimination. It has led to less. By the next generation, same sex marriage will be no big deal for almost everyone in the country. Legality brings normalization, not the other way around. The battle is over.

I find it hard to believe that Chief Justice Roberts actually believes this.  And one can buy the rest of his argument (about leaving it to the democratic process) without this empirical prediction.

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