Lee Drutman and Bruce Cain have posted this draft on SSRN. Here is the abstract:
We ask whether the 2007 Honest Leadership and Open Government Act lobbying regulations had the desired impact. We also develop and test a theory of why congressional staffers leave to become lobbyists. Our basic findings are as follows: The likelihood of moving from Congressional staff to lobbyist is highest for the more experienced and better-paid staff. The 2007 lobbying reforms had a measurable effect on lobbying registration in the first year out, but a much smaller effect on the probability of lobbying eventually. The effects were stronger in the Senate, which put in place tougher rules. We find no partisan differences.