Jacob Maguire has posted this draft on SSRN. Here is the abstract:

This paper argues that, based on recent electoral trends, the United States’ Hispanic and Latino community may no longer constitute a “politically cohesive” minority group under the U.S. Supreme Court’s 1986 test in Thornburg v. Gingles for evaluating vote dilution claims under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. This paper provides an overview of the U.S. Supreme Court’s jurisprudence about Section 2 of the VRA, starting with Thornburg v. Gingles (1986) and ending with Allen v. Milligan (2023). It also examines electoral trends over the past several presidential elections in several Hispanic-majority counties that comprise part of a Hispanic-majority congressional district, including Imperial County, CA and California’s 25th Congressional District; Webb County, TX and Texas’s 28th Congressional District; Cameron County, TX and Texas’s 34th Congressional District; and Osceola County, Florida and Florida’s 9th Congressional District. The paper argues that, based on these electoral trends, Hispanic and Latino voters increasingly lack the political cohesion necessary under the Supreme Court’s precedents, starting with Thornburg v. Gingles, to receive protection under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. The paper concludes with several race-neutral ways in which legislators can strengthen Hispanic and Latino voters’ participation in the political process and Democrats can shore up Hispanic and Latino voters’ support.