Aaron Blake (Washington Post) argues that more information about the 2024 Election adds nuance to the overall picture.

“[A] more holistic look — at races not just for president and the Senate but also for the House and state legislatures — reinforces the reality that voters actually didn’t shift toward Republicans that much.”

The mitigating evidence (for now) includes:

• “We learned a while back that Republicans lost most of the swing-state Senate races — four of five.”
• Trump didn’t win a majority of the popular vote, and his popular-vote margin over Vice President Kamala Harris is slim “(currently at 1.7 points and falling).”
• “[I]f you take tiny and politically unusual Vermont out of it, Republicans gained less than a seat per state, and flipped 0.4 percent of seats nationwide — about 1 out of every 250.”