I have an op-ed in the USA Today (thanks to the great editors there) examining the high risk/high reward nature of the Newsom recall. Expanding a little on it here:
So far, the Republicans (who, it should be noted are not all of the petitioners, but clearly the vast majority) seem to be viewing the recall as a “when you got nothing, you got nothing to lose” event. The party has been driven so low, that might as well roll on the dice on the recall.
However, there’s another, more recent Bob Dylan quote that may be applicable, namely: “when you think that you lost everything, you find out you can always lose a little more.”
One new factor of this recall is it is coming right before Newsom’s reelection run. Walker’s recall was a year and half into his term; Davis’ was in the first year (and he was term-limited); Lynn Frazier in 1921 only had a two-year term, and it was half through. So what does this mean?
Quite possibly, if Newsom racks up a big victory (and recalls have many blowouts) what happens in 2022? Newsom will have already spent an enormous amount of money burning his name into the brains of all Californians. He is getting to road test his machine. Who is looking to challenge Newsom in this reelection run if the biggest names just got stomped on the recall?