“What’s Good for Democracy Is Also Good for Democrats”

Adam Bonica NYT oped:

Once again, the nation is on the cusp of a generational revolution. As a group, millennials favor Democrats by nearly a 2 to 1 margin. Millennials are unlikely to trend Republican as they age so long as the current hyper-polarized political environment persists. However, they will become more likely to vote. (A general rule of thumb is that turnout increases by about one percentage point with each year of age.) This makes it possible to in essence fast-forward the electorate to forecast how the generational advantage will change over the next decade.

The Republican Party, after years of ascendancy, is about to fall off an electoral cliff. By 2026, according to an analysis of data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, millennials are expected to account for 19 percent of votes cast, up from 12 percent in 2014, with Democratic-leaning Gen Xers and Gen Zers accounting for an additional 34 percent. As this happens, the Republican-leaning Silent Generation is projected to account for 8 percent of votes cast in 2026, down from 23 percent in 2014.

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