I am very pleased to welcome to ELB Book Corner three contributors to the edited volume, Our Nation at Risk: Election Integrity as a National Security Issue (Julian E. Zelizer & Karen J. Greenberg eds. NYU Press 2024). The second contribution is from Nate Persily:
The 2024 election is perhaps the third in a row to be perceived as an “existential” election, one in which the future of American democracy is considered at stake. It also promises to be a close election, not only for the presidency but also for both houses of Congress, which are governed by very narrow majorities. Although the stakes seem incredibly high and the country appears intensely polarized and equally divided, the anxiety surrounding the election is exacerbated by a loss of trust in the process and a receptivity to the most outlandish conspiracy theories. In addition, with the January 6 insurrection breaking historical norms relating to the peaceful transfer of power, the prospect of political violence seems likelier than in recent decades.
This novel, toxic mix of stresses on the system requires that the country reorient the election administration system in the direction of a safe and secure voting experience that produces trustworthy results. Even apart from the larger trends noted earlier, there are formidable challenges to doing so. First, election administrators are operating in an arena of legal uncertainty. Most states have changed their laws—and many in very significant ways in either a more liberal or more restrictive direction—since the last presidential election.
Second, many election officials who are applying these uncertain laws have never run an election before. The job of an election worker has become increasingly difficult—and in some instances, frightening and intolerable—since 2020. Election officials face death threats, burdensome dilatory public records requests, online and offline harassment, and multifaceted political pressure and scrutiny. As a result, a large number of election officials, somewhere in the range of a quarter to a third nationwide, have resigned between the 2020 and 2024 elections. A large cadre of novice election officials will be interpreting and enforcing brand-new election laws in an environment of unprecedented scrutiny wherein even a perfectly run election may end up being mischaracterized as dysfunctional.
Third, election officials and other authoritative sources of election-related information are not trusted by large shares of the population, and in any event, they will have a difficult time breaking through the cacophony of misinformation on social media. Several different phenomena are at work here. Because of the relentless attacks on election officials’ trustworthiness, large shares of the population are already predisposed not to believe what these officials have to say. In addition, even for audiences receptive to the messages of election officials and their allies, news related to the election process will be dominated by the loudest elites, not to mention professional disinformation campaigns. Because of the fracturing of the social media ecosystem and the decline of platform content moderation related to elections (for political, economic, legal, and other reasons), falsehoods related to the voting process may gain a greater audience than they did in 2020.
These challenges cannot be solved, but they can be mitigated. First, we need clear rules for administration of the election. In the remaining cases currently in litigation, courts must bring them to a close immediately. The only administrative changes to the voting process in the next two months that should be tolerated are ones that resolve new and emergent problems as voting gets underway, not changes that could have been made months ago.
Second, election officials need resources both to administer and to communicate about the election process. The federal government and the states need to provide funds to address the unique challenges election officials face. This includes funds for well-resourced communications departments and for cybersecurity and physical security.
Third, local civil society actors from the business and faith communities need to be integrated into the system in order to vouch for the security of the process. There are few, if any, national or statewide figures who are trusted by both sides. Trusted local leaders without clear political affiliations should be enlisted to signal their confidence in the local system of election administration. See https://pillarsofthecommunity.org/ .
Finally, states and election departments need to do all they can to discover and address problems at the earliest possible moment and to complete the vote counting as expeditiously as possible. Although officials cannot control the pace of wild falsehoods leveled at the process, they can try to shrink the postelection time period in which those falsehoods might catch fire.
Even with all this preparation, though, we need to be humble in our ability to predict the election administration challenge for 2024. One lesson learned from the recent history of election administration is that new, unforeseen challenges seem to emerge with each election. The best we can do now in this environment of great uncertainty is to support and get resources into the hands of the officials who will administer the election and to do what we can to shield them from the threats posed by the most irresponsible actors in the system.