November 18, 2004
Views of the Berkeley Study of Florida's Electronic Votes
Wisconsin political scientist Ken Mayer writes:
Moreover, a more sophisticated analysis would look not at the county level, but at precincts, which give you many more independent variables and much more variation. Finally (although this introduces some ecological inference problems), the key is not the percentage of the vote, but the number of votes. And I'd be far more convinced if a similar analysis of the Senate vote failed to show the same sorts of movement (if it did, that would clearly indicate that the assumptions of the presidential analysis were off, or that the conspirators were so stupid that they'd risk cheating on two elections at the same time).
Finally, it always sets my spider sense atingling when a quantitative social science paper uses more significant digits in the results than you have in the underlying variables. You can't get 7 or 8 meaningful significant digits (table 3) when the original data only have 1 or 2 significant digits. That implies a level of precision that you just don't have.
More thoughts from Dan Tokaji and The Mystery Pollster.
Posted by Rick Hasen at November 18, 2004 09:04 PM