I have written this piece for Slate. It begins:
If Hurricane Matthew is as devastating to Florida as forecasters have predicted, it could be a human tragedy costing people their lives, health, homes, and personal property. Beyond that initial tragedy, though, the storm also may have dire electoral implications, potentially affecting the outcome of the 2016 presidential election and landing emergency election litigation from Florida once again before the (now-deadlocked) United States Supreme Court.
Florida is seen as a state key to Donald Trump’s chances of victory over Hillary Clinton for the presidency, and this storm could have major impacts on voter registration and voting.
Voter registration in Florida closes in just five days. According to Professor Dan Smith of the University of Florida, in the last five days of registration in 2012, 50,000 Florida voters signed up to vote. Many who might normally sign up to vote at the last minute are now following Florida Gov. Rick Scott’s order to flee the affected areas of the state, and they are not likely to register to vote on their way out or drop ballots in closed post offices or soon-to-be-flooded post office boxes. Hillary Clinton’s campaign has already called for voter registration deadlines to be extended, but the Republican governor has already turned down that request.
Another snippet:
Litigation may begin even before the storm ends, with Democrats pushing to extend registration deadlines in Florida since Gov. Scott has said he will not extend them on his own. Even if Scott gives in and does extend those deadlines, he could be sued on the basis that such an extension is illegal because it usurps the power of the Florida legislature to set the rules for presidential elections. Florida law gives the governorthe power to delay an election, but apparently not to extend registration dates or make other election changes. Any changes in election rules by election administrators, the governor, or courts could be found to be illegal if not passed by the Florida legislature.
If that argument sounds familiar, it is one that surfaced during the disputed 2000 presidential election between Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore. In that election, a very close margin separated the candidates in Florida, and Florida’s electoral votes determined the outcome of the race.