We know this because it is the last day of the term. It is possible there’s another 4-4 tie, but I doubt it. I’m expecting a Justice Breyer majority opinion reversing the conviction, with a dissent by Ginsburg (maybe joined by Sotomayor?). I think that’s the right result too. See my Bob McDonnell Ruling Will Not Legalize Corruption, NATIONAL LAW JOURNAL, May 12, 2016.
On Monday I’ll be giving this keynote address in Tokyo, and Dan Tokaji will be guest blogging (through July 4). But I will try to chime in on McDonnell when it comes down.