If the Supreme Court Agrees to Hear the Two Pending Campaign Finance Cases…

the order won’t come before Tuesday at 9:30 am.

If I had to make a prediction, I’d predict that the Court takes the McCutcheon case involving the aggregate contribution limit but not the Danielczyk case, about the constitutionality of the ban on direct corporate contributions to candidates. McCutcheon is coming up on appeal and not cert, and a decision to not hear the case counts as a ruling on the merits. Also, there’s no circuit split on the corporate contribution case, and there’s a strong anti-circumvention argument against allowing corporate contributions: an individual could easily evade the individual contribution limits through setting up an unlimited number of corporations to make additional contributions.

How confident am I in this prediction about what the Court will do? Not very.

[This post has been updated.]

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