Must-read Andy Kroll on the effects of the Van Hollen ruling:

Crossroads GPS spokesman Jonathan Collegio declined to say if and how his group’s strategy would change. “Crossroads is aware of the key dates, and closely follows all law and regulations that govern the process,” he said in an email.

An official at Americans for Prosperity, the conservative nonprofit founded by David Koch, says AFP brass have met multiple times to discuss how to tweak the group’s ad strategy. One option that’s been discussed is ramping up the group’s online advertising, which isn’t affected by the beefed-up disclosure rule. The staffer stressed that any option forcing AFP to name its donors is off the table. The staffer added, however, that AFP would not go dark on the airwaves in the run-up to the November elections: “We’re going to continue to be on the air and continue to follow the law, and we’re gonna protect the identity of our donors.”

Nonprofits could always gamble that the slow-moving IRS and gridlocked FEC won’t target them even if they flout the law. And if they’re caught, the blowback would be relatively minimal when compared with the potential for political gain, says Rick Hasen, an election law expert at the University of California, Irvine. It’s unlikely that the IRS or FEC would crack down on lawbreakers before Election Day. And if a group got slapped with a six- or seven-figure fine after the election, or had to shut down, that’s hardly the end of the world, Hasen says. “If a nonprofit has to sacrifice its name and pay a fee,” he says, “and it helps keep the House, win back the Senate, and take back the White House, that’s a small price to pay.”

For more background, see my Slate piece from May, Is Campaign Disclosure Heading Back to the Supreme Court? Don’t expect to see Karl Rove’s Rolodex just yet.