“Trump Administration Approves Start of Formal Transition to Biden”

NYT:

President Trump’s government on Monday authorized President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. to begin a formal transition process after Michigan certified Mr. Biden as its winner, a strong sign that the president’s last-ditch bid to overturn the results of the election was coming to an end.

Mr. Trump did not concede, and vowed to persist with efforts to change the vote, which have so far proved fruitless. But the president said on Twitter on Monday night that he accepted the decision by Emily W. Murphy, the administrator of the General Services Administration, to allow a transition to proceed.

In his tweet, Mr. Trump said that he had told his officials to begin “initial protocols” involving the handoff to Mr. Biden “in the best interest of our country,” though his announcement followed weeks of trying to subvert a free and fair election with false claims of fraud.

Ms. Murphy’s designation of Mr. Biden as the apparent victor provides the incoming administration with federal funds and resources and clears the way for the president-elect’s advisers to coordinate with Trump administration officials.

The decision from Ms. Murphy came after several additional senior Republican lawmakers, as well as leading figures from business and world affairs, denounced the delay in allowing the peaceful transfer of power to begin, a holdup that Mr. Biden and his top aides said was threatening national security and the ability of the incoming administration to effectively plan for combating the coronavirus pandemic.

And it followed a key court decision in Pennsylvania, where the state’s Supreme Court on Monday ruled against the Trump campaign and the president’s Republican allies, stating that roughly 8,000 ballots with signature or date irregularities must be counted.

In Michigan, the statewide canvassing board, with two Republicans and two Democrats, voted 3 to 0 to approve the results, with one Republican abstaining. It officially delivered to Mr. Biden a key battleground that Mr. Trump had wrested away from Democrats four years ago, and rebuffed the president’s legal and political efforts to overturn the results.

By Monday evening, as Mr. Biden moved ahead with plans to fill out his cabinet, broad sectors of the nation had delivered a blunt message to a defeated president: His campaign to stay in the White House and subvert the election, unrealistic from the start, was nearing the end.

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“Mich. Supreme Court rejects appeal, but 2 justices urge looking into election fraud claims”

Detroit Free Press:

In what is likely a final blow to the effort to delay the certification of election results in Michigan, the Michigan Supreme Court on Monday rejected an appeal in a lawsuit filed against Detroit and Wayne County election officials.

With all but Justice David Viviano agreeing, the court denied the request to stop the certification of Wayne County’s election results, writing in its order  “we are not persuaded that the question presented should be reviewed by this Court.” The Wayne County Board of Canvassers certified the county’s results Nov. 17.

But in a concurring statement to the court’s order, Justice Brian Zahra, joined by Justice Stephen Markman, urged the Wayne County Circuit Court to move quickly and “meaningfully assess” the plaintiffs’ allegations of electoral fraud.

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“IA-02: Three counties use voting machines to assist hand recount, defying Secretary of State opinion”

Iowa City Press-Citizen:

Three county recount boards are defying a recent legal opinion from the Iowa Secretary of State’s Office and using a machine to aid the recount of ballots in the ultra-close 2nd District congressional race.

Recount boards in Scott, Johnson and Clinton counties — the three most populous in the district — justified the move, saying it is necessary to ensure that the recount board’s three members have time to examine ballots the machines couldn’t read for voter intent to see if any were filed for Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks or Democrat Rita Hart but were not tallied accordingly.

Assistant Scott County Attorney Robert Cusack offered a legal opinion for his board writing that using a machine to assist the hand count is consistent with the recount board’s charge from Iowa Code to “tabulate all votes” and that a hand recount of all 60,000 votes is not required in light of the confidence in voting machines and the code’s own time constraint. …

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More Election Administration Problems in NY: “Absentee ballots in limbo over lost sticky notes in Brindisi-Tenney House race”

Syracuse.com:

The fate of 39 absentee ballots in the election between Rep. Anthony Brindisi and Claudia Tenney is up in the air after election officials admitted in court today that they lost sticky notes attached to some of the ballots.

Oneida County’s election commissioners told state Supreme Court Justice Scott J. DelConte that the color-coded notes explained how the ballots were handled and whether they were counted.

The ballots could be important in deciding the winner of the 22nd Congressional District election, one of three remaining undecided House races in the nation.

Tenney, a Republican from New Hartford, leads Brindisi, D-Utica, by somewhere betwene 100 and 300 votes, according to unofficial returns from eight counties in the district.

Oneida and Oswego counties have not made their final ballot counts public, leading to confusion over how many votes separate the candidates.

DelConte asked each of the eight counties in the district to securely deliver hundreds of disputed absentee and affidavit ballots to his Oswego courtroom today, beginning a process that could ultimately determine who wins the election.

It became clear early in the hearing with Oneida County officials that DelConte and the candidates’ attorneys were confused about certain ballots and the way the county’s elections commissioners organized them.

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“How Misinformation ‘Superspreaders’ Seed False Election Theories”

NYT:

On the morning of Nov. 5, Eric Trump, one of the president’s sons, asked his Facebook followers to report cases of voter fraud with the hashtag, Stop the Steal. His post was shared over 5,000 times.

By late afternoon, the conservative media personalities Diamond and Silk had shared the hashtag along with a video claiming voter fraud in Pennsylvania. Their post was shared over 3,800 times.l

That night, the conservative activist Brandon Straka asked people to protest in Michigan under the banner #StoptheSteal. His post was shared more than 3,700 times.

Over the next week, the phrase “Stop the Steal” was used to promote dozens of rallies that spread false voter fraud claims about the U.S. presidential elections.

New research from Avaaz, a global human rights group, the Elections Integrity Partnership and The New York Times shows how a small group of people — mostly right-wing personalities with outsized influence on social media — helped spread the false voter-fraud narrative that led to those rallies.

That group, like the guests of a large wedding held during the pandemic, were “superspreaders” of misinformation around voter fraud, seeding falsehoods that include the claims that dead people votedvoting machines had technical glitches, and mail-in ballots were not correctly counted.

“Because of how Facebook’s algorithm functions, these superspreaders are capable of priming a discourse,” said Fadi Quran, a director at Avaaz. “There is often this assumption that misinformation or rumors just catch on. These superspreaders show that there is an intentional effort to redefine the public narrative.”

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Michigan Certifies Presidential Vote, with One Member Abstaining

NYT:

Michigan’s statewide electoral board approved its presidential vote tally on Monday, resisting pressure from President Trump to delay the process and paving the way for President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. to receive the state’s 16 electoral votes.

The Michigan vote was one of the biggest setbacks yet for Mr. Trump, who had directly intervened in the state’s electoral process to voice support for Republican officials who had made false claims about the integrity of the vote, and invited Michigan G.O.P. legislative leaders to the White House on Friday. Those leaders said afterward that they would allow the normal certification process to play out.

After reviewing the state Bureau of Elections’ report, which showed Mr. Biden winning the state by 154,000 votes over Mr. Trump, the Michigan board, made up of two Democrats and two Republicans, voted 3 to 0 with one abstention to certify the results.

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Disturbing News, Even Though It Does Not Affect PA Certification

Philly Inquirier:

Pennsylvania counties rushed Monday to certify their results from the Nov. 3 election, even as President Donald Trump and his Republican allies continued their increasingly long-shot legal effort to disrupt the cementing of the state’s final vote tally.

But as county boards of elections convened for what is normally little more than a sleepy formality, the impact of the president’s campaign to undermine trust in the integrity of the vote repeatedly reared its head.

In at least three of the state’s most populous counties, the boards split their votes along party lines. And small groups of voters speaking at public meetings urged elections administrators to reject vote tallies in several others. Many speakers cited unsupported allegations of widespread fraud, malfunctioning voting machines and claims about mail-in ballots that Trump and his supporters have spread without evidence in recent weeks….

Board votes in Allegheny and Luzerne — which Trump carried by 14 points — also split along partisan divides. But in all three counties, the dissenters were among the minority and the certifications were ultimately approved.

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“How Trump placed a ticking time bomb at the center of our system”

Important point from Greg Sargent:

So is this really how it’s going to be? Will it now become a fact of our political life that Democrats will be required to win future presidential elections by steal-proof margins in order to prevail?

With President Trump’s attempts to overturn the election continuing in Michigan and Wisconsin, more Republicans are distancing themselves. They are “subtly urging” Trump to accept reality and are “losing patience” with his antics, we are told.

But in the very formulation that some of these Republicans have adopted — and in the sheer numbers who have refrained from going even this far — there is grounds for serious pessimism about what all this portends.

What happens if the last-ditch tactic Trump’s team has adopted — trying to get rogue GOP-controlled state legislatures to appoint pro-Trump electors to the electoral college in defiance of their state’s voters — becomes seen as a conventional tool of political warfare, akin to more typical voter suppression efforts?

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“Trump repeats unfounded election fraud claims in late-night posts flagged by Twitter”

WaPo:

As more Republicans joined a chorus urging President Trump to concede the election and his legal team splintered over far-fetched conspiracy theories, President Trump spent Sunday at his private golf course in Virginia.

Then, just before midnight, he took to Twitter to repeat more of the unfounded claims of mass voter fraud that have animated his weeks-long resistance to acknowledging defeat to President-elect Joe Biden.

Trump’s tweets, which included another false claim that he “won” the election, were quickly flagged by Twitter with disclaimers.

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“National security experts call on GOP leaders to rebuke Trump’s election claims”

WaPo:

A group of leading GOP national security experts — including former Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge — urged congressional Republicans on Monday to demand President Trump concede the election and immediately begin the transition to the incoming Biden administration.

“President Trump’s refusal to permit the presidential transition poses significant risks to our national security, at a time when the U.S. confronts a global pandemic and faces serious threats from global adversaries, terrorist groups, and other forces,” said a statement signed by more than 100 GOP luminaries.

The signers included Ridge, the former Pennsylvania governor who served as Homeland Security secretary under President George W. Bush, former CIA Director Michael Hayden and John D. Negroponte, who served as director of national intelligence.

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Senator Rob Portman Oped Calls for Treating Biden as President-Elect

Cincinnati Enquirer oped:

This process has now been going on for about three weeks. The Trump campaign has taken steps to insist that only lawful votes were counted in key states, including filing numerous lawsuits. At this point, the vast majority of these lawsuits have been resolved and most of the remaining ones are expected to be resolved in the next couple of weeks. There were instances of fraud and irregularities in this election, as there have been in every election. It is good that those have been exposed and any fraud or other wrongdoing should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law, but there is no evidence as of now of any widespread fraud or irregularities that would change the result in any state….

I voted for President Trump, was a co-chair of his campaign in Ohio, and I believe his policies would be better for Ohio and the country. But I also believe that there is no more sacred constitutional process in our great democracy than the orderly transfer of power after a presidential election. It is now time to expeditiously resolve any outstanding questions and move forward. …

On or before Dec. 8, any ongoing efforts to ensure an accurate count must be concluded and the 2020 election brought to a close. In the meantime, the General Services Administration (GSA) should go ahead and release the funds and provide the infrastructure for an official transition, and the Biden team should receive the requested intelligence briefings and briefings on the coronavirus vaccine distribution plan. This is only prudent. Donald Trump is our president until Jan. 20, 2021, but in the likely event that Joe Biden becomes our next president, it is in the national interest that the transition is seamless and that America is ready on Day One of a new administration for the challenges we face.

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“Election Case Risks Awkward About-Face for Biden Administration”

Bloomberg Law:

President-elect Joe Biden’s top lawyer at the Supreme Court may have no choice but to change the government’s position in an election dispute out of Arizona, the sort of pivot that is awkward for lawyers and irritates the justices.

The case, Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee, takes aim at voting restrictions passed by the state to limit out-of-precinct voting and restrict who can collect and return mail-in ballots. Republicans say the law is designed to prevent voter fraud while Democrats say it disenfranchises minority voters, who disproportionately vote outside their precincts and rely on others to handle their mail-in ballots.

That case is one in which the incoming Biden administration may do an about face, said Paul Bender, who was the second in command in the solicitor general’s office during the Clinton administration.

The new solicitor general will try to do as much as possible to avoid that, Bender said. “But sometimes, you just can’t.”

If pushed to change positions it could hurt the incoming solicitor general’s reputation as an apolitical actor, making arguments based on the law rather than political considerations….

Opening briefs are due Nov. 30, meaning that a Trump administration brief in support of the laws would be filed in early December—just weeks before Biden takes office.

While not unheard of, that timing may convince the Acting Solicitor General Jeffrey Wall to stay his hand. The Justice Department didn’t respond to a request for comment.

If Wall does file a friend-of-the-court brief, however, “it would be a big problem for the Biden administration,” Bender said.

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New York: “Brindisi-Tenney House race shrouded in secrecy, confusion as campaigns battle over ballots”

Syracuse.com:

Central New Yorkers who voted in one of the most competitive House races in the nation still don’t know the results 18 days after the election, whether their vote counted, or exactly what’s happening in a courtroom where the outcome may be decided next week.

Since the polls closed Nov. 3, the 22nd Congressional District election between Rep. Anthony Brindisi and Claudia Tenney has been shrouded in secrecy as lawyers for the campaigns fight behind the scenes over hundreds of absentee ballots that could tip the election.

Some counties declined to disclose updated absentee ballot counts this past week, or how many ballots have been disputed by the two campaigns.

It’s not even clear exactly how many votes separate Brindisi, D-Utica, and Tenney, a Republican from New Hartford. The two faced each other in a hotly contested rematch of a 2018 election that Brindisi won by about 4,400 votes….

On Friday, the judge met privately for about 90 minutes in an online video conference with lawyers for the Brindisi and Tenney campaigns. Lawyers and election officials for all eight counties, as well as reporters, were in a separate “virtual” room shut out from the judge’s conference.

When the judge emerged, he offered no explanation about what happened in the private meeting. DelConte said he would order disputed absentee and affidavit ballots to be delivered to his Oswego County courtroom on Monday for two days of review.

DelConte did not reveal how many ballots are in dispute. His law secretary, Eric Van Buren, said the judge would not agree to an interview, nor is a transcript available of the hearing.

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My New New York Times Oped Argues We Should Worry Less About Whether Trump Can Steal the Election (He Can’t); Worry More About the Damage Being Done to Voting Rights and the Legitimacy of our Election System and Democracy

I have written this piece for the NY Times. It begins:

Even as the campaign lawsuits brought by President Trump over the 2020 election enter their death throes, many people continue to worry that Mr. Trump will find three Republican legislatures to magically snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. They are concerned that he will pull off an antidemocratic hat trick through maneuvers like delaying recounts in Wisconsin and blocking certification in Michigan to allow these legislatures to submit competing slates of electors to Congress. The goal is to prevent Joe Biden from securing the Electoral College votes he needs on Jan. 6 for Congress to declare him president.

The good news is that there is no real prospect that Mr. Trump can avoid a reluctant handover of power on Jan. 20. The bad news is that Mr. Trump’s wildly unsubstantiated claims of a vast voter fraud conspiracy and the litigation he has brought against voting rights have done — and will increasingly do — serious damage to our democracy. Our problems will deepen, in particular, because Mr. Trump’s litigation strategy has led to the emergence of a voter-hostile jurisprudence in the federal courts. New judicial doctrines will put more power in the hands of Republican legislatures to suppress the vote and take voters, state courts and federal courts out of key backstop roles.

Let’s start on the positive side. A federal district court opinion issued in Pennsylvania Saturday laid bare both the dangerousness and vacuousness of Mr. Trump’s litigation strategy. Rudy Giuliani, acting as one of the president’s lawyers, failed to persuade Judge Matthew Brann — an Obama-appointed Federalist Society member and former Republican official — to disenfranchise nearly seven million Pennsylvania voters and to let the state legislature name a slate of presidential electors. The court held that the Trump campaign offered a “Frankenstein’s monster” of a legal theory and that the complaint was full of nothing more than “strained legal arguments without merit and speculative accusations, unpled in the operative complaint and unsupported by evidence.”

Although the campaign has appealed the case to the Third Circuit, it is so weak it will get no better reception there or at the Supreme Court. There are no remaining legal cases that could plausibly overturn the election results in even one state where Mr. Trump has lost (much less the three he would need for a different result in the Electoral College)….

All of that is indeed good news, but I am quite concerned about what comes next. By the time President-elect Biden takes the oath of office, millions of people will wrongly believe he stole the election. At least 300 times since the election, Mr. Trump has gone straight to his followers on social media to declare the election rigged or stolen and to claim, despite all evidence to the contrary, himself as the real victor. Mr. Trump’s false claims will delegitimize a Biden presidency among his supporters. It should go without saying that a democracy requires the losers of an election to accept the results as legitimate and agree to fight another day; Republican leaders echoing Mr. Trump’s failure to support a peaceful transition of power undermine the foundation of our democracy. It’s not only the fact that we have had to say this, but that we keep having to repeat it, that shows the depths that we have reached.

Mr. Trump’s litigation strategy also will make things worse when it comes to voting rights. The common thread in his campaign’s postelection litigation connecting Trump allegations of people of color illegally voting in Democratic cities in swing states and corrupted voting machines is a lack of any evidence to support the claims. Many of the lawsuits have been laughed out of court for lack of evidence, voluntarily dismissed, or involve so few votes that they could not plausibly change the outcome. These unsuccessful lawsuits will nonetheless provide a false narrative to explain how it is that Mr. Biden declared victory and serve as a predicate for new restrictive voting laws in Republican states. They already provided a basis for the now-aborted attempt of Republican canvassing board members in Wayne County, Mich., to reject votes from Democratic-leaning Detroit, and could be the basis for a similar move by Republicans when the Michigan state canvassing board meets Monday.

And even as Mr. Trump has lost most of his postelection lawsuits, he and his allies had a good bit of success before the election in cases that will stymie voting rights going forward. Following the lead of the U.S. Supreme Court, federal appeals courts now routinely say that federal courts should be deferential when states engage in balancing voting rights — even during a pandemic — against a state’s interests in election administration and avoiding fraud, even when states come forward with no evidence of fraud. Under the so-called “Purcell principle,” courts increasingly allow states to make voting harder. They can do this whenever states are able to stall judicial proceedings long enough that they can claim a voting change comes too close to the election and will confuse voters and election administrators. Courts have issued other disturbing opinions, including allowing for age discrimination in the availability of mail-in ballots only for those older than 60 or 65, essentially short-circuiting litigation under the 26th Amendment, which bars discrimination in voting on the basis of age.

The worst appears yet to come. In one of the lawsuits that remains technically alive at the Supreme Court out of Pennsylvania, Mr. Trump and his allies have advanced a muscular version of something that’s become known as the “independent state legislature” doctrine. Taken to its extreme, the doctrine says that state legislatures have complete authority to set election rules absent congressional override, and that their power to set election rules cannot be overcome even by state supreme courts applying right-to-vote provisions in state constitutions….

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Breaking: In Federal Case in Pennsylvania, Trump Campaign Seeks Very Limited Emergency Remedy in Third Circuit, and Does Not Ask for a Delay in Certification

In a new filing in the Third Circuit (that should appear on the docket tomorrow), the Trump campaign did not ask for the appeals court to issue an immediate order delaying certification, which is what I expected. They do not even ask for an immediate order reversing the trial court’s motion to dismiss and granting some kind of preliminary relief for additional discovery. Instead, the only ask, at least so far, is for an order for the district to consider on the merits the campaign’s proposed Second Amended complaint: “Appellants will request that this Court reverse denial of the Motion to Amend and direct the District Court to promptly decide it on the merits and proceed expeditiously to a hearing to enjoin certifying the results of the Presidential Election (or order decertification if already certified) if the Second Amended Complaint (ECF 172-2) is held to state valid claims.”

This is odd for a number of reasons. First, this is an emergency election case, and it seems crazy to me that if one were litigating over the presidential election one would NOT seek to get appellate review of an adverse ruling as soon as possible. Second, all that this asks for is for the district court to consider the proposed second amended complaint on the merits. Given the scathing ruling on the first amended complaint yesterday, and the similar defects with the second amended complaint (including lack of standing), there’s no reason to expect the district court would reach any different conclusion if it considered the second amended complaint. This is especially true given the deference usually applied to decisions about accepting a second amended complaint. Third, the motion does not even ask the Third Circuit to weigh in on the controlling legal case that was just decided last week by the circuit, something which is potentially the whole ball game on standing in the case.

There are other problems with this filing too, such as the odd claim that “The proposed Second Amended Complaint (ECF 172-2) asserts claims under the Civil Rights Act for violation of the Equal Protection and Due Process clause.” Those clauses are in the U.S. Constitution’s 14th Amendment, not the Civil Rights Act.

Just bizarre and weak.

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“Pres. Trump election challenges sound alarm among Black voters”

AP:

President-elect Joe Biden was in part powered to victory in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia by Black voters, many of them concentrated in cities such as Detroit, Philadelphia and Atlanta where he received a significant share of their support. Since Election Day, President Donald Trump and his allies have sought to expose voter fraud that simply does not exist in these and other overwhelmingly Black population centers.

Such a plainly racist strategy to contest the election could erode Black voters’ trust in elections. Voting-rights advocates say they stand ready to beat back any efforts to water down the Black vote. But fears persist that Trump’s allies will undermine democracy and disenfranchise Black Americans and other voters of color.

Trump renewed his attack on Motown voters Thursday, tweeting without evidence, “Voter Fraud in Detroit is rampant, and has been for many years.”

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“Attorney heading up Trump campaign’s Wisconsin recount effort is seeking to throw out his own vote”

Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel:

 The Dane County attorney overseeing the Trump campaign’s effort to recount and disqualify ballots in the state’s largest counties wants to throw out his own vote. 

Jim Troupis, a former Dane County judge and Cross Plains attorney who is representing the Trump campaign’s recount effort, voted early using the state’s in-person absentee option — one of a group of voters whose ballots the Trump campaign has asked election officials to deem illegal.

Troupis and his wife appear on exhibits he submitted to the Dane County Board of Canvassers on Sunday, during the county’s third day of retallying ballots. The exhibits include lists of voters who voted in a manner the campaign alleges is illegal, which the Board of Canvassers has rejected. The information was provided by Dane County to both campaigns. 

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“Trump calls on GOP state legislatures to overturn election results”

Politico:

President Donald Trump made explicit Saturday the strategy his legal team has been hinting at for days: He wants Republican-led legislatures to overturn election results in states that Joe Biden won.

“Why is Joe Biden so quickly forming a Cabinet when my investigators have found hundreds of thousands of fraudulent votes, enough to “flip” at least four States, which in turn is more than enough to win the Election?” Trump said, despite refusing to produce any such evidence either publicly or in court cases filed by his attorneys.

“Hopefully the Courts and/or Legislatures will have the COURAGE to do what has to be done to maintain the integrity of our Elections, and the United States of America itself,” Trump said.

Trump’s comment came after a string of legal defeats, including a rejection by a federal judge in Pennsylvania Saturday who said the Trump team presented no evidence of election fraud or misconduct, despite seeking to invalidate millions of votes. Trump’s lead lawyer in the case, Rudy Giuliani, said he intends to appeal the case to the Third Circuit and, if necessary, the Supreme Court.

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“Michigan House speaker floats possibility of ‘constitutional crisis'”

Detroit News:

Michigan House Speaker Lee Chatfield referenced the possibility of a “constitutional crisis” during an interview on Fox News Sunday morning, two days after he huddled with President Donald Trump at the White House.

The Board of State Canvassers meets Monday to consider certifying Michigan’s statewide election results, including President-elect Joe Biden’s 154,000-vote victory. But top Republican Party leaders have asked the board to delay certification in a bid to investigate “anomalies and irregularities” they claimoccurred on Nov. 3.

The board features two Republicans and two Democrats. Many legal experts believe the panel has a duty, under Michigan law, to certify the results Monday.

“If there were to be a 2-2 split on the State Board of Canvassers, it would then go to the Michigan Supreme Court to determine what their response would be, what their order would be,” Chatfield, R-Levering said on “Fox & Friends” Sunday. “If they didn’t have an order that it be certified, well now we have a constitutional crisis in the state of Michigan. It’s never occurred before.”

But as Rick Pildes explained in the NYT:

The Biden campaign and Michigan voters would likely first turn to the state or federal courts. A court would likely issue an order to the state board to certify the result — legally, this is known as issuing a writ of mandamus — because the board’s legal duty is clear and unequivocal once it has received the certified vote totals from the counties. If the resistant board members were still willing to defy the court and go to jail (presidential pardons do not apply to state crimes), a court could also issue the certification itself.

Michigan’s governor also has legal powers she could invoke, though whether she would choose to do so would involve complex political judgments. Under the state’s Constitution, she has the power — the Constitution, actually, calls it a duty — to remove or suspend from office a canvassing board member for “gross neglect of duty,” “corrupt conduct” or “for any other misfeasance or malfeasance” in carrying out their duties. Failing to certify on the facts in Michigan would easily meet this standard.

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“Brad Raffensperger: Georgia’s election results are sound”

WaPo oped:

The truth is that the people of Georgia — and across the country — should not have any remaining doubts about who was elected governor two years ago or who won the presidential election earlier this month. The presidential outcome was remarkably close, but the new paper-ballot system, the strong election security and integrity mechanisms in place, and the audit and hand recount should combine to put to rest any doubts about the final outcome.

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“In last-gasp maneuver, Trump campaign tries to invalidate thousands of votes as Wisconsin recount gets underway”

WaPo:

President Trump’s campaign is seeking to use a recount of the presidential election in Wisconsin to attempt to invalidate tens of thousands of votes in the state, making sweeping challenges to whole categories of ballots cast in the state’s two Democratic-leaning counties in his last-gasp effort to reverse President-elect Joe Biden’s win.

As a recount began on Friday in Dane and Milwaukee counties — home to the cities of Madison and Milwaukee — Trump lawyers argued that officials should not merely retabulate all the votes cast in the Nov. 3 election to reconfirm they’d been counted properly.

Instead, they argued that large batches of ballots had been improperly accepted and counted in the first place. In both Dane and Milwaukee, they sought to disqualify all absentee ballots that had been cast before Election Day in person, rather than by mail.ADADVERTISING

So far, their efforts have been rejected by the Democratic-majority boards of canvasses in both counties, which have denied attempts to set aside large categories of ballots and instead proceeded to a slow-moving process to retabulate all the votes.

The recount must conclude no later than Dec. 1, when the election is scheduled to be certified. At that point, the president’s campaign could file a lawsuit over its rejected challenges — potentially delaying certification.

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Ballot Design Issues and Overvotes in GA Special Election Senate Race

This new paper from Herron, Smith, et. al., out incredibly fast, suggests that there were 4,000 people in Gwinnett County who accidentally voted twice in the Loeffler-Collins-Warnock race, due to confusion of the double-column ballot used there. Pictures of the ballot in Gwinnett County compared to the one in Bibb County, from their paper is below. This has no effect on the presidential election and did not affect the outcome in the Senate race, but a possible example about how badly designed ballots can confuse voters:

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“Why Republican voters say there’s ‘no way in hell’ Trump lost”

In Reuters interviews with 50 Trump voters, all said they believed the election was rigged or in some way illegitimate. Of those, 20 said they would consider accepting Biden as their president, but only in light of proof that the election was conducted fairly. Most repeated debunked conspiracy theories espoused by Trump, Republican officials and conservative media claiming that millions of votes were dishonestly switched to Biden in key states by biased poll workers and hacked voting machines.

Many voters interviewed by Reuters said they formed their opinions by watching emergent right-wing media outlets such as Newsmax and One American News Network that have amplified Trump’s fraud claims. Some have boycotted Fox News out of anger that the network called Biden the election winner and that some of its news anchors – in contrast to its opinion show stars – have been skeptical of Trump’s fraud allegations. …

It may not be the last time. Many Republicans see attacks on election integrity as a winning issue for future campaigns – including the next presidential race, according to one Republican operative close to the Trump campaign. The party, the person said, is setting up a push for “far more stringent oversight on voting procedures in 2024,” when the party’s nominee will likely be Trump or his anointed successor.

Many Republican voters scoff at those results, convinced Trump was cheated. Raymond Fontaine, a hardware store owner in Oakville, Connecticut, said Biden’s vote total – the highest of any presidential candidate in history – makes no sense because the 78-year-old Democrat made relatively few campaign appearances and seemed to be in mental decline….

“You are going to tell me 77 million Americans voted for him? There is just no way,” said Fontaine, 50….

Rory Wells, 51, a New Jersey lawyer who attended a pro-Trump “stop the steal” election protest in Trenton last week, said he now watches Newsmax because Fox isn’t sufficiently conservative.

“I like that I get to hear from Rudy Giuliani and others who are not immediately discounted as being crazy,” he said of Trump’s lead election lawyer.

Newsmax CEO Chris Ruddy said the network’s viewership has exploded since the election, with nearly 3 million viewers nightly via cable television and streaming video devices.

In Sundown, Texas, Mayor Jonathan Strickland said there’s “no way in hell” Biden won fairly. The only way he’ll believe it, he said, is if Trump himself says so.

“Trump is the only one we’ve been able to trust for the last four years,” said Strickland, an oilfield production engineer. “As far as the civil war goes, I don’t think it’s off the table.”

If it comes to a fight, Caleb Fryar is ready. But the 26-year-old son of Brett Fryar, the chiropractor, said he hoped Trump’s fraud allegations would instead spark a massive mobilization of Republican voters in future elections.

Asked whether Trump might be duping his followers, he said it’s hard to fathom.

“If I’m being manipulated by Trump … then he is the greatest con man that ever lived in America,” Caleb Fryar said. “I think he’s the greatest patriot that ever lived.”

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Breaking: In Total Loss for Trump Campaign in Its Most Major Remaining Election Case, Federal Court in Pennsylvania Dismisses Case and Denies Motion to File Amended Complaint [link to opinion]

In a total loss the the Trump campaign, a federal district court in Pennsylvania has dismissed the most serious case brought by the campaign and denied the campaign a motion to file an amended complaint.

The judge just excoriates this suit, which those of us in the field have called ridiculous from the start:

In other words, Plaintiffs ask this Court to disenfranchise almost seven million voters. This Court has been unable to find any case in which a plaintiff has sought such a drastic remedy in the contest of an election, in terms of the sheer volume of votes asked to be invalidated. One might expect that when seeking such a startling outcome, a plaintiff would come formidably armed with compelling legal arguments and factual proof of rampant corruption, such that this Court would have no option but to regrettably grant the proposed injunctive relief despite the impact it would have on such a large group of citizens.

That has not happened. Instead, this Court has been presented with strained legal arguments without merit and speculative accusations, unpled in the operative complaint and unsupported by evidence. In the United States of America, this cannot justify the disenfranchisement of a single voter, let alone all the voters of its sixth most populated state. Our people, laws, and institutions demand more. At bottom, Plaintiffs have failed to meet their burden to state a claim upon which relief may be granted. Therefore, I grant Defendants’ motions and dismiss Plaintiffs’ action with prejudice.

In a 37-page opinion, the court concluded:

Defendants’ motions to dismiss the First Amended Complaint are granted with prejudice. Leave to amend is denied. “Among the grounds that could justify a denial of leave to amend are undue delay, bad faith, dilatory motive, prejudice, and futility.” Given that: (1) Plaintiffs have already amended once as of right; (2) Plaintiffs seek to amend simply in order to effectively reinstate their initial complaint and claims; and (3) the deadline for counties in Pennsylvania to certify their election results to Secretary Boockvar is November 23, 2020, amendment would unduly delay resolution of the issues. This is especially true because the Court would need to implement a new briefing schedule, conduct a second oral argument, and then decide the issues.

The court had many problems with the complaint, but this goes to the heart of the merits: “Granting Plaintiffs’ requested relief would necessarily require invalidating the ballots of every person who voted in Pennsylvania. Because this Court has no authority to take away the right to vote of even a single person, let alone millions of citizens, it cannot grant Plaintiffs’ requested relief.”

The court first held that both the individual plaintiffs and the Trump campaign lacked standing to raise the equal protection complaint in the lawsuit. Among other thing, the court remarked: “Neither of these orders would redress the injury the Individual Plaintiffs allege they have suffered. Prohibiting certification of the election results would not reinstate the Individual Plaintiffs’ right to vote. It would simply deny more than 6.8 million people their right to vote.“

Further on the merits of the equal protection claim, the court held: “Requiring that every single county administer elections in exactly the same way would impose untenable burdens on counties, whether because of population, resources, or a myriad of other reasonable considerations.” And: “Plaintiffs’ only remaining claim alleges a violation of equal protection. This claim, like Frankenstein’s Monster, has been haphazardly stitched together from two distinct theories in an attempt to avoid controlling precedent.”

This is a total loss for the Trump campaign and a dead end. The campaign can try to appeal this to the Third Circuit and even to the Supreme Court, but this is such a dog of a case I cannot see any chance of success there, even before the most sympathetic judges.

Rudy had truly participated in the worst piece of election litigation I have ever seen, both in terms of the lawyering and the antidemocratic nature of what the lawsuit attempted to do.

[This post has been updated.]

Further update:

I have tweeted more about this case, including this point in the thread:

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Arizona: “Maricopa County Board of Supervisors votes unanimously to certify election results”

AZ Central:

Maricopa County’s election results are certified and final.

The Maricopa County Board of Supervisors, the elected body that oversees elections in Arizona’s most populous county, voted unanimously on Friday to approve the results of this month’s general election.

The majority-Republican supervisors did so after spending hours on Friday afternoon asking election officials who oversaw the voting process numerous questions related to election fairness, security, technology and oversight.

Before the vote, the supervisors, four Republicans and one Democrat, said they were satisfied with the answers.

Republican chairman Clint Hickman said there was no proof of fraud or misconduct in the election and he was confident that voters were provided with a fair election. He said that he “learned a lot about the character of people in this community” on the matter, and he would not “violate the law or deviate from my own moral compass,” even though he said that’s what some had pressured him to do.

“No matter how you voted, this election was administered with integrity, transparency, and most importantly in accordance with Arizona state laws,” Hickman said.

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Nevada: “Judge rejects ‘shocking ask’ of new election over voter fraud claims brought by Sharron Angle and affiliated group”

Nevada Independent:

A Clark County District Court judge has rejected what she called a “shocking ask” to nullify Nevada’s election results and order a new election on scant evidence of voter fraud brought by a group tied to former U.S. Senate candidate and conservative activist Sharron Angle.

Judge Gloria Sturman rejected the request by Election Integrity Project and Angle after a lengthy hearing Friday afternoon, saying that the group’s claims of potential voter fraud fell far short of the required level of evidence needed for a judgment in their favor — throwing out a state law allowing mail-in ballots to be sent to all active registered voters, declaring the 2020 election null and ordering a new election to take place.

Sturman said she didn’t want to outright dismiss concerns that people may have fraudulently voted in the 2020 election, but said there were other remedies available and that ordering a new election days before the statewide certification of vote totals would create a “very serious harm to the public.”

“I’m not saying that there might not be problems, and your client might not have found really serious problems, and there is an administrative remedy for people who do this kind of thing. They should be investigated by the secretary of state, and they should be prosecuted if found to have done something illegal,” she said. “But the civil remedy of throwing out an election is just, to me, a shocking ask.”

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Trump Campaign Appears to Be Deliberately Slowing Recount in Milwaukee

Journal-Sentinel:

“The Trump campaign is continually revisiting issues that the commission has ruled on, such as observers saying that they cannot see when, again, that was addressed already,” Christenson said to explain what is slowing the process.

There appeared to be a disconnect between the attorneys arguing before the three-member Board of Canvassers and the attorneys acting on behalf of the Trump campaign in the aisles and the observers at each of the tables where the counting is taking place, he said.

Another issue, he said, is that the observers are “disruptive,” asking question after question and telling the election workers to stop what they’re doing.

“It’s not our job to train their observers on what they’re observing,” he said. “They clearly don’t know what they’re doing and so they keep asking questions. And we’ve said to the Trump campaign, you need to tell your people what you’re looking for here because they’re objecting to every ballot.”

Observers need to ask the campaigns if they have questions, not the election workers, he said.

He said he believed a total of three ballots from Bayside and Hales Corners were rejected so far.

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“Michigan, national GOP seek to delay certification of election results”

Detroit News:

The Michigan and national Republican parties have asked the Board of State Canvassers to delay certification of the state’s election results in a bid to investigate “anomalies and irregularities” alleged to have occurred in Michigan’s Nov. 3 election. 

Michigan Republican Party Chairwoman Laura Cox and Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna Romney McDaniel asked the state to conduct a “full, transparent audit” before certification, noting other states like Georgia “have taken discretionary steps” in determining their results.

The Board of State Canvassers is scheduled to meet Monday to consider certification. 

The request from Cox and McDaniel came the morning after Michigan Republican lawmakers met with President Donald Trump at the White House for an hour. 

In a statement after the meeting, Senate Majority Leader Mike Shirkey and House Speaker Lee Chatfield suggested the lawmakers used the Oval Office meeting to focus on COVID-19 relief and not the certification of Michigan’s election results.

Chatfield and Shirkey also said in their statement that they have “not yet been made aware of any information that would change the outcome of the election in Michigan,” which President-elect Joe Biden won by 154,000 votes.

But Trump responded on Twitter Saturday morning to the lawmakers’ statement by reiterating his unproven claims that there was “massive voter fraud” in Michigan’s election. 

Trump retweeted a post from Shirkey about the meeting, saying, “This is true, but much different than reported by the media. We will show massive and unprecedented fraud!” Trump wrote. 

Through a spokeswoman, Shirkey declined to comment on Trump’s tweet Saturday.

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“NAACP LDF Lawsuit: Trump Violated Voting Rights Act”

HuffPost:

The NAACP Legal Defense Fund filed a federal lawsuit on behalf of Black Michigan voters against President Donald Trump and his campaign Friday, accusing both of violating the Voting Rights Act.

The lawsuit, filed in U.S. District Court in Washington, argued that Trump is pressuring election officials not to certify votes in Michigan based on false allegations of election fraud in an attempt to suppress votes, particularly those of Black voters.

The fraud allegations have been “consistently debunked and the campaign’s litigation attempts turned away by courts in several states,” Sherrilyn Ifill, president and director-counsel of the NAACP Legal Defense and Educational Fund Inc., said in a statement.

“The president’s use of dog whistles to suggest the illegitimacy of votes cast by Black voters in Detroit, Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Atlanta are an appeal to a dangerous and corrosive racialized narrative of voter fraud,” she added.

The lawsuit argued that the president’s “tactics repeat the worst abuses in our nation’s history, as Black Americans were denied a voice in American democracy for most of the first two centuries of the Republic.”

Defendants are “openly seeking to disenfranchise Black voters, including voters in Detroit, Michigan,” the suit alleged. “Repeating false claims of voter fraud, which have been thoroughly debunked, Defendants are pressuring state and local officials in Michigan not to count votes from Wayne County, Michigan, … and thereby disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of voters.”

The Voting Rights Act of 1965 “protects against efforts to intimidate or coerce officials to disenfranchise Black voters,” Ifill said.

The lawsuit called for Trump or his campaign to halt any efforts to disenfranchise voters.

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“Duty or Party? For Republicans, a Test of Whether to Enable Trump”

NYT:

But this is also a moment of truth for the Republican Party: The country is on a knife’s edge, with G.O.P. officials from state capitols to Congress choosing between the will of voters and the will of one man. In pushing his false claims to the limits, cowing Republicans into acquiescence or silence, and driving officials like Mr. Shinkle to nervous indecision, Mr. Trump has revealed the fragility of the electoral system — and shaken it.

At this point, the president’s impact is not so much about overturning the election — both parties agree he has no real chance of doing that — but infusing the democratic process with so much mistrust and confusion that it ceases to function as it should….

Civil rights leaders are especially alarmed at Mr. Trump’s efforts, given that most of them have falsely portrayed cities with large Black populations, like Detroit and Philadelphia, as so corrupt that their votes shouldn’t count. The argument that Mr. Trump’s attempt is all for show and will not succeed has done little to allay their concern.

“How is it ‘show’ when you’re basically systematically delegitimizing Black voters by your rhetoric,” said Sherrilyn Ifill, president of the NAACP Legal Defense and Educational Fund, which filed suit against Mr. Trump in Michigan on Friday for trying to disenfranchise Black voters (it did so on behalf of the Michigan Welfare Rights Organization and three residents). “How can that be anything but incredibly dangerous,” she added.

Ms. Ifill marveled at the position of the Republican Party, which was the nation’s first true civil rights party from the time of slavery through the late 1950s, but now, under Mr. Trump’s unchallenged leadership, is effectively taking a stance against voting in entire cities and states.

“Civil rights haven’t moved — one party has moved, and that move has not been toward an embrace of democracy, it’s been away from it,’’ she said.

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“Trump bid to overturn vote crashes into wall of deadlines”

Politico:

President Donald Trump’s effort to overturn the election results is about to smash into reality: a gauntlet of battleground state deadlines that are poised to extinguish his increasingly desperate attempts to hold onto the presidency.

Michigan is due to certify its state results Monday. Arizona and Pennsylvania counties must also finalize their results the same day. On the heels of Georgia’s certification of Joe Biden’s victory on Friday, the series of administrative deadlines stands to all but formalize Biden’s win by officially affirming the results in enough contested states to put him over the 270-electoral-vote threshold.

As late as Friday, the president summoned Michigan lawmakers to the White House as part of his last-ditch lobbying effort to convince them to intervene to stop the state’s certification of the election results….

So far congressional Republicans have largely kept Trump at arm’s length, refusing to embrace his allegations of fraud but insisting he has the right to lodge fraud complaints and take legal action. Some of Trump’s closer allies in the Capitol have called for a hearing on election “irregularities,” suggesting the complaints from the Trump campaign deserve to be pursued.

In the meantime, Trump’s arguments have made inroads with Republican voters, with polls reflecting deep distrust in the election results, despite no substantiveevidence of fraud.

“It’s a crass anti-democratic effort that is bound to fail but it is helping to undermine the confidence of Trump supporters in the process,” said Rick Hasen, a law professor at the University of California Irvine. “So this is not a cost-less exercise. Just because it’s not going to work doesn’t mean that’s harmless.”

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“Trump tries to drum out GOP election officials who won’t play his games”

Politico:

President Donald Trump has driven senators into retirement and tweeted wayward Republicans into primary defeat during four years leading the GOP. Now, as a lame duck, he’s launched a new campaign against GOP election officials who won’t bend to his will.

Trump’s drive to discredit the results of an election he lost has put him at odds with the Republican elected officials and administrators who oversaw the vote in key states — and called it what it was: a free and fair election. Being at odds with Trump doesn’t go over well in today’s Republican Party, and Trump has turned their political bases against them, even unleashing threats from his most rabid supporters.

No GOP official has caught more flak than Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a fairly conventional Republican who won the job as Georgia’s top election official two years ago running as a rock-ribbed, anti-voter fraud conservative — with Trump’s endorsement. Now, after refusing strident calls from Trump and allies not to certify results that show President-elect Joe Biden carried Georgiahe’s facing down a potential primary challenge in 2022 and his family is dealing with death threats.https://e2013af35bb80840858adee9831441fd.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-37/html/container.html

“I am a Republican, and a conservative one. And I believe that I’m going to be disappointed, because I don’t believe that my candidate is going to win,” Raffensperger said in an interview this week, before Georgia certified its results. “But that said, I want 100 percent of people to have confidence in the results. I’m not gonna like it. And I’m gonna have to take that medicine, just like everyone else in my party will, but it will be an accurate count.”

Raffensperger said he will run for another term in 2022, though other Republicans “probably have notions” of beating him in a primary now, he said. “And right now, emotions are pretty high. That’ll be what it is. I’m going to do my job. And my accounting is to the Georgians that put me in office here, and really all Georgians.”

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“Justice Dept. meets Trump, Giuliani vote-fraud claims with silent skepticism”

WaPo:

The Justice Department has met President Trump’s fantastical claims of widespread voter fraud with two weeks of skeptical silence, not taking any overt moves to investigate what Trump’s lawyer, Rudolph W. Giuliani, claims is a globe-spanning conspiracy to steal the election.

Such deafening silence from one of the government’s main enforcers of election law indicates just how little evidence there is to support the wild, wide-ranging claims made by Trump and his supporters, most notably Giuliani in a Thursday news conference held inside the Republican National Committee headquarters.

Privately, Justice Department officials have said they are willing to investigate legitimate claims of vote fraud; Attorney General William P. Barr even loosened some restrictions that might otherwise have discouraged prosecutors from doing so before results are certified.

But current and former officials said they thought Giuliani’s accusations sounded “crazy,” and they have not seen or heard of any evidence suggesting large-scale fraud, let alone the kind of intercontinental conspiracy described by the president’s lawyer. Like others, they spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a politically sensitive matter.

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Trump Campaign Reply Brief in PA Federal Case Ignores Binding Supreme Court Authority on Standard for Preliminary Relief, Misspells Governor’s Name

More to come when I have time, but start here:

Here’s the current third circuit standard, which shows that the must be a showing of BOTH a likelihood of success AND irreparable harm, not, as the old case states “A sufficiently strong showing on either the likelihood of success or irreparable harm may justify an injunction”:

We also are aware that, significantly later than this confusion arose, the Supreme Court stated that “[a] plaintiff seeking a preliminary injunction must establish that he is likely to succeed on the merits, that he is likely to suffer irreparable harm in the absence of preliminary relief, that the balance of equities tips in his favor, and that an injunction is in the public interest.” Winter v. Nat. Res. Def. Council, Inc., 555 U.S. 7, 20, 129 S.Ct. 365, 172 L.Ed.2d 249 (2008). At first blush that statement would lend support to the divergent standard articulated in Opticians Association of America almost twenty years earlier. But for four reasons we think Winter did not overrule our balancing-of-the-factors standard.

First, the Supreme Court in Winter explained that “[i]n each case … courts must balance the competing claims of injury and must consider the effect on each party of the granting or withholding of the requested relief.” Winter, 555 U.S. at 24, 129 S.Ct. 365 (emphasis added) (quotation omitted). It concluded that “[a]n injunction is a matter of equitable discretion” that requires “the balance of equities.” Id. at 32, 129 S.Ct. 365 (emphasis added). That is why Justice Ginsburg determined that the 178*178 “Court has never rejected [the balancing] formulation, and [did] not believe it [did] so” in Winter. Id. at 51, 129 S.Ct. 365 (Ginsburg, J., dissenting).

That reading of Winter comports with the Supreme Court’s following opinion on temporary equitable orders, Nken v. Holder, 556 U.S. 418, 129 S.Ct. 1749, 173 L.Ed.2d 550 (2009), decided in the same term just five months later (with both opinions written by Chief Justice Roberts). There the Court explained that a district court must undertake “consideration of [the] four factors.” Id. at 434, 129 S.Ct. 1749. “Once an applicant satisfies the first two factors, the traditional [equitable relief] inquiry calls for assessing the harm to the opposing party and weighing the public interest.” Id. at 435, 129 S.Ct. 1749. Though Nken dealt with the issuance of a stay pending appeal, the Court explained that the same factors apply as in the preliminary injunction context “not because the two are one and the same, but because similar concerns arise whenever a court order may allow or disallow anticipated action before the legality of that action has been conclusively determined.” Id. at 434, 129 S.Ct. 1749. Read together, these companion cases promote the traditional flexibility to granting interim equitable relief in which the district court has full discretion to balance the four factors once gateway thresholds are met. See id.; Winter, 555 U.S. at 32, 129 S.Ct. 365.

Second, other circuits have agreed with our reading of Winter and Nken. For instance, the Seventh Circuit, citing Winter, has held that a preliminary injunction may issue if the movant demonstrates it will face irreparable harm and has a “plausible claim on the merits,” after which “the `balance of equities’ favors” the movant. Hoosier Energy Rural Elec. Coop., Inc. v. John Hancock Life Ins. Co., 582 F.3d 721, 725 (7th Cir. 2009) (Easterbrook, C.J.). “How strong a claim on the merits is enough depends on the balance of the harms: the more net harm an injunction can prevent, the weaker the plaintiff’s claim on the merits can be while still supporting some preliminary relief.” Id. Similarly, citing Winter, the D.C. Circuit has declined “to abandon the so-called `sliding scale’ approach to weighing the four preliminary injunction factors” and held that a “party seeking a preliminary injunction must make a clear showing that [the] four factors, taken together, warrant relief….” League of Women Voters of the United States v. Newby, 838 F.3d 1, 6-7 (D.C. Cir. 2016) (emphasis added) (quotations omitted). The Second Circuit also has interpreted Winter and Nken as permitting a district court to continue a “flexible approach” in granting preliminary equitable relief, and that if those cases meant “to abrogate the more flexible standard for a preliminary injunction, one would expect some reference to the considerable history of the flexible standards applied in [the Second Circuit], seven [other] sister circuits, and the Supreme Court itself.” Citigroup Glob. Mkts., Inc. v. VCG Special Opportunities Master Fund, Ltd., 598 F.3d 30, 37-38 (2d Cir. 2010). We find that reasoning persuasive.

Third, no test for considering preliminary equitable relief should be so rigid as to diminish, let alone disbar, discretion. District courts have the freedom to fashion preliminary equitable relief so long as they do so by “exercising their sound discretion.” Winter, 555 U.S. at 24, 129 S.Ct. 365 (quotation omitted). Because those courts are on the frontline and are much more familiar with the unique facts of a particular case, we apply a deferential standard in reviewing their decisions on preliminary equitable relief — abuse of discretion. See Campbell Soup Co., 977 F.2d at 91 (quotation omitted). Indeed, “[t]he essence of equity jurisdiction has been the power of the [court] to do equity and to mould each decree to the necessities of the particular case. Flexibility rather than rigidity has distinguished it.” Weinberger v. Romero-Barcelo, 456 U.S. 305, 312, 102 S.Ct. 1798, 72 L.Ed.2d 91 (1982) (quotations omitted).

179*179 Fourth, disallowing a district court from balancing the four factors is inconsistent with the Supreme Court’s post-Winter instruction in Nken that, when evaluating whether interim equitable relief is appropriate, “[t]he first two factors of the traditional standard are the most critical.” 556 U.S. at 434, 129 S.Ct. 1749. An Opticians Association of America standard — in which all four factors are effectively critical in equal recourse — is logically incompatible with Nken‘s unambiguous holding. What would be the point of creating two gateway factors by placing elevated value on them if all are equally imperative? There would be none. And to require a moving party to prevail on all factors reads out balancing when not all factors favor that party.

Accordingly, we follow our precedent that a movant for preliminary equitable relief must meet the threshold for the first two “most critical” factors: it must demonstrate that it can win on the merits (which requires a showing significantly better than negligible but not necessarily more likely than not[3]) and that it is more likely than not to suffer irreparable harm in the absence of preliminary relief[4]. If these gateway factors are met, a court then considers the remaining two factors and determines in its sound discretion if all four factors, taken together, balance in favor of granting the requested preliminary relief. In assessing these factors, Judge Easterbrook’s observation bears repeating: “How strong a claim on the merits is enough depends on the balance of the harms: the more net harm an injunction can prevent, the weaker the plaintiff’s claim on the merits can be while still supporting some preliminary relief.” Hoosier Energy, 582 F.3d at 725.

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“Liberal dark-money behemoth raised nearly $140M last year”

Politico:

One of the left’s biggest financial hubs raised $137 million from anonymous donors in 2019 — a massive sum that funded an eight-figure ad campaign attacking Republican senators, bolstered key pieces of Democratic and environmentalist infrastructure and supported expensive ballot measure campaigns.

The nine-figure influx to the Sixteen Thirty Fund last year, detailed in a new tax filing, almost equaled the group’s fundraising during the 2018 midterm elections, when the nonprofit raised $143 million and

The “social welfare organization” — which, unlike a super PAC, is not required to disclose the identities of its donors — has multiplied in size during the Trump administration, becoming one of the biggest financial forces in American politics. Sixteen Thirty Fund’s rise signaled the left’s embrace of nonprofit groups it long derided as “dark money,” when the right dominated the space during the Obama years….

More than half of the Sixteen Thirty Fund’s money came from just three anonymous sources in 2019: One donor gave more than $33 million, while another chipped in $29.3 million and a third made a $12.1 million contribution. An additional four contributors gave between $5 million and $10 million in 2019, and 11 more gave at least $1 million. Altogether, those 18 donors gave more than $127 million — more than 90 percent of the Sixteen Thirty Fund’s total inflow last year.

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“The Founders didn’t prepare for a president who refuses to step down, historians say”

Historians weigh in on this at the Washington Post. Here is a passage from the Anti-Federalists, who opposed the Constitution — this is about their fear of the new office of the President:

… We may also suppose, without trespassing upon the bounds of probability, that this man may not have the means of supporting, in private life, the dignity of his former station; that like Caesar, he may be at once ambitious and poor, and deeply involved in debt. Such a man would die a thousand deaths rather than sink from the heights of splendor and power, into obscurity and wretchedness.”

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“Hoyer: Earmarks are likely coming back next year”

I was glad to see this news. I have been arguing for a number of years now that the 2011 ban on earmarks is a good example of how the pursuit of “political purity” has contributed to making Congress less able to put together budget and appropriations legislation. With a small governing majority, it is all the more important that Democratic leaders in the House have the ability to bring members along on these matters by offering them benefits for their districts. If this change is adopted, I will be interested to see what conditions, if any, are imposed on the kinds of earmarks that can be requested.

The House had created a Select Committee on the Modernization of Congress as one of the first acts of the 116th Congress. The committee has been praised for functioning in a bipartisan fashion. It was chaired by Rep. Kilmer (D-Wa), with Rep. Tom Graves (R-Ga) as vice-chair. When the committee issued its report, I blogged a month ago on this site about its recommendation to restore earmarks, among the 97 recommendations the committee made.

Here is an excerpt from that earlier post:

“One of the biggest reasons, I think, Congress is held in low regard is because of the dysfunction that you’ve seen on budget and appropriations matters,” Kilmer said.

They believe that if members of Congress could be in charge of directing funding to their districts, they will be much more invested in the entire process.

Their proposal would limit earmarks to local entities like water authorities and police departments, not private companies, and that they would function like grant proposals. And if local officials abused the system, federal investigators would be empowered to claw back the funds.

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“Is Wall Street Turning Blue?”

This is the abstract from a new study, published by Yosef Bonaparte:

We demonstrate that since the early 1990’s, it is becoming increasingly common for firms to be run by CEOs who are aligned with the Democratic Party, which we refer to as the blue trend. We find evidence that at least one factor driving this trend appears to be the rise of the role of women, who tend to have values that align with the Democratic Party. Further, we find that the blue trend is stronger in industries that are more considerable to women as a source of employees or customers (e.g., hospitality, computers, etc.). Nevertheless, the trend appears to be quite pervasive, as nearly 75% of industries turned bluer. The blue trend also has several implications on corporate governing and on the overall stock market performance and volatility, as the presence of more CEOs who are aligned with the Democratic Party is associated with the lower overall stock market returns. Collectively, our evidence suggests that there is a change in the leadership on Wall Street and that has implications for corporate culture, and the stock market landscape.

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