Looking forward to reading Jake M. Grumbach‘s (Department of Political Science, University of Washington) new book, Laboratories Against Democracy: How National Parties Transformed State Politics, which was profiled a few weeks ago on NPR. In the meanwhile, I have been reading the earlier article, Laboratories of Democratic Backsliding. The article uses “a new comprehensive measure of electoral performance”–one that considers a range of factors such as “average polling place wait times, same-day and automatic voter registration policies, and felon disenfranchisement” and then uses “Bayesian modeling to estimate a latent measure of democratic performance.” The conclusion is that between 2000-2018 states have witnessed “democratic backsliding.” What explains this? Here is where the article offers an analysis that supports what many observers have already concluded: “Republican control of state government reduces democratic performance.” And that this not party competition, polarization, demographic change or a range of other factors is the significant driver of the backsliding that is occurring.
There is obviously lots of nuance to the findings, but what I think is most interesting is that this approach potentially offers a starting point for scholars to begin to think about where democracy is working best (including by more ambitious measures such as policy responsiveness) in the United States–and from there to think about what we can do to nudge the rest of the country in that direction.
BallotAccessNew reports two new cases in the lower courts:
- A Montana state court has ruled that the Montana Constitution bars the legislature from having repealed election-day registration.
- U.S. District Court has struck down Arkansas ballot access procedures for new or previously unqualified parties, finding the 3% petition, the early deadline, and the requirement that all signatures be gathered in 90 days too onerous.
More details on their site.
As more jurisdictions are considering introducing rank choice voting (the issue will be on the ballot in Nevada this fall), Politico offers this long-form essay on Alaska’s experience. Can Alaska “point the way to a more moderate, more nuanced way of doing politics”? Or is rank choice voting a product of Alaska’s uniquely independent culture? Politico spoke to Ivan Moore, “a longtime Alaska pollster who is considered one of the foremost experts on the state’s politics.”
“Number one, that ranked choice voting worked well. Pretty flawless performance by the Alaska Division of Elections.
. . .
[Sarah Palin lost because] Sarah Palin is indeed very unpopular.”
Interestingly, the relationship of a state’s culture to the potential for reform is a longstanding question. Early adopters of vote by mail, early voting, and same-day registration, for example, were often states that already had high turnout. This often led political scientists (and I believed them) to conclude the reforms were not scaleable. But 2020 seems to have proved them wrong.
By way of clarification, even if the Nevada ballot initiative is successful, the earliest the reform could be implemented is 2026. Amendment to the state constitution must be passed in two consecutive cycles. Rank choice voting is on the ballot in nine jurisdictions this fall, but the rest are at the municipal level.
Fascinating new NBC report on polling: “In battleground states from Georgia to New Hampshire to Ohio, a potentially decisive slice of voters tell pollsters they’re supporting a Democrat for one high-profile office and a Republican for another. Nowhere is the dynamic clearer than in Pennsylvania.” Most interesting of all, police unions in Pennsylvania seem to be splitting their endorsements.
“Within the past two weeks, an Oz campaign co-chair was spotted at a Shapiro fundraiser while two major police unions, one representing Philadelphia officers and the other Pennsylvania state troopers, offered endorsements of Oz and Shapiro.”
This headline from CNN says it all. Actually to be fair, Joe Kent has offered various explanations of this interview. But the bottom line appears to be: “The lady doth protest too much.”
“While Kent has tried to shift his campaign rhetoric toward the center – including by removing calls to adjudicate the 2020 election from his website sometime between June and July – his campaign has been bogged down by associations with white nationalists and extremists, whom Kent has repeatedly had to distance himself from.
. . . Kent’s website also features an endorsement from Arizona state Sen. Wendy Rogers who was censured by the Republican-controlled Arizona senate after she gave a speech to the white nationalist conference calling for public hangings.”
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that Fair Fights Action has lost its 2018 challenge to Georgia’s election laws after four years. Georgia’s voter registration and absentee ballot practices, while not perfect, the Judge concluded, did not violate either the Constitution or the Voting Rights Act. The judge ruled in favor of Georgia on all counts. The full opinion is embedded in the article.
Unfortunately, behind a firewall, the WSJ
offers an interesting and nuanced analysis of the likely impact of increased support among voters of color for the Republican Party. The bottom line is turnout next month will be key. As per usual,… Continue reading
Jen Fifield at Vote Beat
reports on “a coordinated, multi-state effort to probe local election officials in battlegrounds such as Michigan, Arizona, and Texas ahead of the November election” in an effort to exploit for vulnerabilities for political gain.
“The… Continue reading
Nate Cohn for The Upshot
offers an intricate analysis of the 2022 congressional maps in historical perspective. Lots of interesting graphs to get to his basic take:
“In reality, Republicans do have a structural edge in the House, but it… Continue reading
reports on how conservative activists in Georgia are invoking the state’s recent controversial election law to “attempt to remove thousands of voters from the rolls
with just weeks to go before the October 17 start of in-person early voting.”
Katie Harbath and Collier Fernekes at the Bipartisan Policy Center have published “A Brief History of Tech and Elections: A 26 Year Journey.
” Without endorsing its normative take, the report does offer a nice synthesis and review of… Continue reading
In recognition of the fact that election laws vary by states, the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU Law and All Voting is Local
have released 7 state-specific guides
for election officials that explain the legal safeguards in place to… Continue reading
reports on Ginni Thomas’ meeting with the January 6 Committee, where she “repeated claims the 2020 election was stolen, despite a lack of evidence.” The New York Times’ take on the hearing is here
and the Washington Post’s… Continue reading
A New York court has ordered
New York’s redistricting commission to reconvene and pass new state assembly maps for legislative consideration by April 28, 2023.