How Would Donald Trump Have Done if All States Used Ranked-Choice Voting?

In the key states we are still waiting on, it looks like Libertarian candidates received considerably more votes than the margins Trump is losing by currently. These numbers can of course change, and don’t assume anywhere near all Libertarian voters would have ranked Trump second — many third-party voters are so alienated from both candidates, they won’t vote for either as a second choice. This year, in addition, some of these might also be protest votes against Trump, from voters who would otherwise vote R but did not want to vote for Trump — further reason they might not have ranked a second choice.

My recollection is that about 50% of third-party voters do vote for a major party candidate as a second choice, when given the option. The nature of the race and the candidates can also change that percentage, of course.

I have not looked to see whether there are states Biden lost by small numbers in which third-party votes went to other candidates on the left, in which the RCV vote transfer might have put Biden over the top.

Here’s the numbers currently (*8.30 am Nov.7):

GA Trump deficit: 7,248 Libertarian Candidate: 61,792

AZ Trump deficit: 29,861 Libertarian Candidate: 47,632

PA Trump deficit: 28,833 Libertarian Candidate: 77,108

Good morning Rob Richie, I’m sure you will be able to tell us whether there is good reason to conclude, once all the numbers are in, whether President Trump would have been re-elected if all states used RCV. Is Jo Jorgensen the Ralph Nader or Jill Stein of 2020?

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What Poll Watching and Ballot Processing Was Like on the Ground

This is the most in-depth story I’ve seen, from the Detroit Free Press, about how the ballot processing went on in one particularly important location, Detroit. Rick linked to it below, but I wanted to highlight that it contains all the combustible elements we expected to see, but that did not, in the end, disrupt the process:

a huge number of poll watchers from both parties — indeed, far more allowed into the center than the law required or maybe permitted; challengers pressing in much closer to the election officials than social-distancing policies permitted; social-media rumors flying fast and furious, either wilful misinformation or just confusion; some challengers not understanding the process and the rules and trying to engage in widespread disruption, such as simply challenging all the ballots at a table with no reason; the police having to remove disruptive challengers; media stories based on incorrect information or information out of context circulating widely.

It’s easy to see how combustible the situation might have been, but it did not combust. I don’t know if I’d say the process went smoothly, but through it all, the election officials performed steadily, including through the night, and none of all this surrounding noise ended up interfering with the process.

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Breaking: Justice Alito Issues Order Requiring That All Pennsylvania Counties Segregate (and Potentially Separately Count) Ballots Received After Polling Deadline

You can find the order directed to county election boards here.

The order follows the PA GOP telling Justice Alito that not all counties had indicated that they would follow the guidance as well as tweaks that the PA Secretary of State made to that guidance. Justice Alito also wants a response by 2 pm tomorrow.

What does this mean? It essentially preserves the status quo and leaves open the possibility that these later ballots could be excluded from a count should there be further action. There was no court order requiring this action and now there is one.

Unless the presidential election comes down to Pennsylvania and comes down to what is reportedly a relatively small number of ballots arriving in the three day post-election period, this won’t matter at all. But those ballots could well matter in other races, and likely must still be counted in state and local races, which would not be subject to the court’s order.

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“Trump Says He Will Keep Fighting as Aides Doubt Path Forward; President’s advisers point fingers over campaign’s legal strategy”

WSJ:

President Trump said Friday he would continue to fight election results that showed him on the cusp of losing to former Vice President Joe Biden. Privately, people familiar with the conversations say, advisers are urging him to prepare for that eventuality.

Mr. Trump’s campaign on Friday named David Bossie, one of the president’s closest political confidants, to head up its legal team. The addition of Mr. Bossie, who isn’t an attorney, comes three days after polls closed and after some lawsuits challenging results had been dismissed while others remained active.

Some advisers have privately acknowledged there is little path forward, politically or legally, that would prevent Mr. Trump from becoming the first president to lose reelection in the 21st century.

Among the president’s advisers, finger-pointing over the campaign’s legal strategy has intensified in recent days, White House and campaign aides said. Aides have expressed acute frustration over what they see as a slapdash effort, complaining that—even though Mr. Trump spent months telegraphing his intent to fight the election outcome in the courts—there wasn’t enough planning ahead of Election Day and has been little follow-through on decisions made this week. For days after the election, advisers said they didn’t know who was in charge of the strategy….

On Thursday, campaign officials met with White House counsel Pat Cipollone and others to go through the campaign’s remaining legal options, a Republican official said. The group determined that the campaign had pursued every legal option at that point to challenge the results or voting methods.

On Thursday night, advisers warned Mr. Trump to prepare to lose, according to a person familiar with the conversation. He expressed little interest in that advice.

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“Pennsylvania GOP asks Supreme Court to stop Pennsylvania from counting votes received after November 3”

Ariane de Vogue:

Lawyers for Pennsylvania Republicans are asking the US Supreme Court to order the state to not take any action on any mail-in ballots received after Election Day, November 3.

The Pennsylvania secretary of state has already ordered any ballots that arrive between Wednesday, November 4, and Friday, November 6, be segregated from those that arrived by Election Day, pending ongoing litigation, and the state GOP’s request simply asks the court to enforce that action as well as order that “no action” is taken on the ballots.

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“Trump’s False Election Fraud Claims Split Republicans”

NYT:

Republican reaction to President Trump’s baseless claims of election fraud ranged widely Friday, from vigorous agreement to sharp condemnations, and in between some carefully constructed statements supporting the idea of fair elections without any endorsement of the president’s fabricated assertions of an election conspiracy.

“Here’s how this must work in our great country: Every legal vote should be counted,” Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky and the majority leader, wrote on Twitter Friday morning. “Any illegally-submitted ballots must not. All sides must get to observe the process. And the courts are here to apply the laws & resolve disputes.”

“That’s how Americans’ votes decide the result,” he added.

Notably absent from Mr. McConnell’s statement was any suggestion that Democrats were stealing the election through an elaborate national conspiracy that included pollsters and the news media, as Mr. Trump asserted with no evidence in a rambling news conference on Thursday. It also implicitly rejected Mr. Trump’s fruitless calls for a halt to vote counting in states where his early leads have been threatened or eliminated.

In a stinging statement, Senator Mitt Romney of Utah said that Mr. Trump, while free to request recounts and present valid evidence of fraud, “is wrong to say that the election was rigged, corrupt and stolen — doing so weakens the cause of freedom here and around the world, weakens the institutions that lie at the foundations of the republic, and recklessly inflames destructive and dangerous passions.”

As Mr. Trump and his die-hard allies maintained that the vote in Pennsylvania — where his early lead over former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., evaporated on Friday — was badly corrupted, that state’s Republican senator, Patrick J. Toomey, condemned Mr. Trump’s claims.

“The president’s speech last night was very disturbing to me because he made very, very serious allegations without any evidence to support it,” Mr. Toomey told “CBS This Morning.”

“I am not aware of any significant fraud, any significant wrongdoing,” he added.

Some Republicans seem prepared to defend Mr. Trump’s position without reservation, however.

“President Trump won this election,” Representative Kevin McCarthy of California told the Fox News host Laura Ingraham on Thursday night. “So everyone who’s listening: Do not be quiet. Do not be silent about this. We cannot allow this to happen before our very eyes.”

Claiming that poll watchers have not been able to watch vote counts, Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas tweeted a link to Mr. Trump’s legal defense fund, with the headline, in all capital letters, “The Democrats Will Try to Steal This Election.”

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“‘Get to TCF’: What really happened inside Detroit’s ballot counting center”

Deep dive in the Detroit Free Press:

Chris Thomas, a former long-time director of elections for the Michigan Secretary of State, addressed the concerns of Republican challengers and debunked rumors of foulplay that circulated on social media.

Thomas, who has worked for both Democratic and Republican Secretaries of State, and who has offered constructive criticism of the Detroit clerk’s performance in previous elections, said he was “extremely confident” that Detroit’s final vote tally will be right.

 “They’re in a good position to come through with a nice clean report,” Thomas said. “I don’t have any questions about it.”

Thomas also debunked rumors that every Republican challenger had been removed from the counting room, and, that ballots were sneaked into the room in coolers and a wagon.

Neither were true, said Thomas, noting that had secret ballots arrived, Republican challengers inside the room would have raised a ruckus and he would have been notified. 

“I didn’t hear that,” Thomas said.

And there was no favoritism shown to any of the challengers, said Thomas,  who refuted claims that all Republican were removed. As he spoke, there were more than 100  Republican challengers still freely roaming the counting room, with only four tables left counting.

“Nobody was mistreated,” Thomas said, referring to all challengers.

Thomas, who has been working with Detroit Clerk Janice Winfrey’s team to improve procedures, spent long hours overseeing the counting before heading out late Wednesday night. 

While at TCF, Thomas explained that election officials sought to make sure “that the rules are being followed,” and that challengers “have only 1 person per table at about 134 tables.”

“We just want to make sure that we don’t have too much chaos going on in here,” said Thomas, responding to Republicans’ allegations that they were unfairly left out of the process.  “People are trying to work, get the job done.”

Unfortunately, Thomas said, some challengers don’t understand the rules of the counting process.

“Challengers are usually confused” when they first arrive, he said. “A lot of them don’t know the intricacies of the process.”

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“Trump-linked figures have boosted #StopTheSteal movement”

Politico:

Demonstrations across the country protesting alleged fraud in this week’s election have ties to major conservative activist groups and MAGA personalities affiliated with President Donald Trump, according to multiple misinformation researchers.

Many of these protests have been organized by prominent, well-funded pro-Trump groups such as Tea Party Patriots, Women for America First, Turning Point USA and Freedom Works USA, according to analyses from several research institutions.

One of the first avenues for organizing, a Facebook group called #StopTheSteal, was created by Amy Kremer, a longtime conservative activist with Tea Party roots and founder of the pro-Trump group Women for America First. The Facebook group collected more than 350,000 members in just over 24 hours before it was banned by the social media company for promoting violence

The group’s other administrators were even more prominent conservative activists with close ties to Steve Bannon, the former manager of Trump’s 2016 campaign and the ex-chair of the conservative news organization Breitbart, according to data collected by the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, a think tank that tracks online extremism and misinformation.

The page’s rapid surge in membership was also helped by promotion from conservative activists and pro-Trump Facebook groups online. And for a group that existed for just over a day, it had an outsized, real-world impact….

Yet the affiliation between the #StopTheSteal groups and Trump’s camp show that this “spirit” is supported, encouraged and occasionally manufactured by Trump’s own allies. It’s part of Trumpworld’s broader attempt to gin up outrage about misleading and false claims of voter fraud, thus giving Trump a way to claim the public is behind him.

“This is definitely not just organic, up-from-the-grassroots disinformation,” said Alex Stamos, director of the Stanford Internet Observatory and Facebook’s former security chief. “There are professionals here who are pushing some of this stuff based upon exactly what is going on in the polls and in the real-world arguments over the election.”

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“Trump lawyer calls military ballots cast in Nevada ‘criminal voter fraud'”

News 3 Las Vegas:

Should Nevada residents who are serving overseas in the military be allowed to vote?

Both federal and local laws say yes, but a letter sent to the Department of Justice by a lawyer representing the Donald Trump campaign doesn’t think so.

Attorney Shana D. Weir, representing Donald J. Trump for President Inc., sent a letter to United States Attorney General William Barr on Thursday claiming to have evidence of “criminal voter fraud” in the state of Nevada.

Specifically, they have a list of 3,062 voters who voted in the 2020 presidential election, even though the National Change of Address database shows have moved out of Nevada….

The list provided by Weir gives no way of telling how long these voters have been out of town, and how many are in college. However, the data shows something telling — many of the votes that Weir claims to be fraudulent have overseas military addresses.

To be specific, 132 of the out-of-town addresses listed have Army Post Office addresses — addresses used for active service Army and Air Force personnel serving overseas….

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“Op-Ed: What America should learn from this harrowing election”

Franita Tolson LAT oped:

However, all the blame game does is gloss over the key structural failure in our system of elections that, even in conditions of historic voter turnout, permits states to suppress that turnout and disenfranchise a significant number of voters for no good reason.

Voter suppression and disenfranchisement cannot be explained by a polling error or political strategy gone awry. This is a first-order issue of democratic legitimacy because states make it needlessly difficult for people to vote in a system that holds itself out as a democracy. As such, having more reliable polling or running more targeted campaigns won’t solve this problem. Neither will fixing the electoral college. Even if we let the people pick the president directly, some combination of states would still make it difficult for segments of their populations to cast ballots.

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“Trump-associated firm helped send unmarked texts urging vote protests in Philadelphia”

WaPo:

A Republican firm run by a top aide to President Trump’s 2020 campaign appears to have helped send unmarked text messages on Thursday that urged supporters in Philadelphia to converge outside a building where local election officials counted votes.Follow the latest on Election 2020

“ALERT: Radical Liberals & Dems are trying to steal this election from Trump!” began the short text, sent in the hours before former vice President Joe Biden took the lead in the state. “We need YOU! Show your support at the corner of 12th St. & Arch St. in Philadelphia.”

The messages were sent from phone numbers that had been leased by Opn Sesame, a company that offers texting services to Republican candidates and causes, according to a person familiar with the matter who was not authorized to discuss the messages. Opn Sesame is run by Gary Coby, the digital director for Trump’s 2020 campaign, and it has worked for years on behalf of a number of key GOP clients, including the Republican National Committee. It is unclear which of Opn Sesame’s clients actually sent the message, and the company does not disclose its full list of users.

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Important statement about the end of the election from PA’s legislative leaders

This is an extremely responsible, important statement from the majority leaders of the PA Senate and House. It deserves wide circulation because it makes clear that the voters will decide the election. This statement goes a long way to ensuring we will have an orderly end to the process. I have been highly critical of the PA Governor and legislature, but kudos to the legislative leaders for issuing this statement:

Pennsylvania lawmakers have no role to play in deciding the presidential election

We have said it many times and we will happily say it again: The Pennsylvania General Assembly does not have and will not have a hand in choosing the state’s presidential electors or in deciding the outcome of the presidential election.

To insinuate otherwise is to inappropriately set fear into the Pennsylvania electorate with an imaginary scenario not provided for anywhere in law — or in fact.

Pennsylvania law plainly says that the state’s electors are chosen only by the popular vote of the commonwealth’s voters.

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“Trump’s legal team makes no significant progress in election fight”

Josh Gerstein sums it up:

President Donald Trump’s barrage of lawsuits related to the 2020 presidential election kicked up considerable dust on Thursday, but delivered his campaign no tangible progress in halting or slowing the slide of vote tallies away from him in key battleground states.

The flurry of litigation yielded a couple of minor victories for the president, as a state judge granted his campaign’s poll watchers closer access to ballot counting in Philadelphia and a federal court judge there brokered a deal that’s likely to let more volunteers from Trump’s campaign observe the process.

Despite mixed results, the court fights seemed to serve their intended purpose of creating an air of legal uncertainty around the election while the president and his advisers scramble to preserve a sense of viability for a reelection bid that is by objective measures growing more remote.

The performative nature of the litigation was evidenced by the campaign’s dispatching some of its most combative surrogates to sites where court fights were underway or threatened.

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Wisconsin Republicans Urged to Get PA Republicans to Commit Voter Fraud to Help Trump win PA; Never Heard Something Dumber

This is some really 4th dimensional chess stuff: Wisconsin Republicans solicit PA Republicans to commit voter fraud by sending in late ballots to make the election look fraudulent to cause courts to throw out Pennsylvania’s election results—after using the Supreme Court to force late ballots to be segregated so that can’t happen. LOL.

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“In Torrent of Falsehoods, Trump Claims Election Is Being Stolen”

NYT:

Even for President Trump, it was an imagined version of reality, one in which he was not losing but the victim of a wide-ranging conspiracy stretching across the country in multiple cities, counties and states, involving untold numbers of people all somehow collaborating to steal the election in ways he could not actually explain.

Never mind that Mr. Trump presented not a shred of evidence during his first public appearance since late on election night or that few senior Republican officeholders endorsed his false claims of far-reaching fraud. A presidency born in a lie about Barack Obama’s birthplace appeared on the edge of ending in a lie about his own faltering bid for re-election.

“If you count the legal votes, I easily win,” Mr. Trump said Thursday night in an unusually subdued, 17-minute televised statement from the lectern in the White House briefing room, complaining that Democrats, the news media, pollsters, big technology companies and nonpartisan election workers had all corruptly sought to deny him a second term.

“This is a case where they’re trying to steal an election,” he said. “They’re trying to rig an election, and we can’t let that happen.”

He convinced few people who were not already in his corner. Most of the television networks cut away from the statement on the grounds that what Mr. Trump was saying was not true. On CNN, former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, a Republican often put in the position of defending Mr. Trump over the years, appeared exasperated as he denounced the president’s loose talk of election thievery as “dangerous” and “shocking” and declared that “counting absentee ballots and counting mail-in ballots is not fraud.”

The New York Post, which published salacious articles on Hunter Biden planted by Mr. Trump’s associates before the election, headlined an article: “Downcast Trump Makes Baseless Election Fraud Claims in White House Address.” Even Fox News noted it had seen no “hard evidence” of widespread wrongdoing.

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Pildes: “Trump Can Try, but the Courts Won’t Decide the Election”

Rick Pildes in the NYT:

It is hard to know the true motivation behind these new lawsuits. They could be all sound and fury, an effort to appease the president and his troops, demonstrating that the campaign is fighting to the last dawn. On the other hand, they may be less about their individual claims, or about winning in court, and more the start of a plan to attempt to sow confusion, to generate a sense of chaos, to undermine the perceived integrity of the vote — even to set up later tactics.

My guess is that courts will make quick work of these new cases. At the time of the 2000 election, only half of registered voters believed it “really mattered” which candidate won the election. Today, 83 percent have that conviction. Few judges are going to believe it is good for the country or the courts for this election to be decided by anyone other than the voters.

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“Trump stages corrosive attempt to undermine votes as his path to 270 evaporates”

CNN:

President Donald Trump staged a corrosive and potentially dangerous attempt at undermining the US election on Thursday, baselessly claiming the presidency was being stolen from underneath him as vote counts showed his path to victory disappearing.

Standing at the White House podium, the President repeated false claims that a count of legally cast ballots would show him winning against former Vice President Joe Biden. He complained that in certain states where he had been leading on election night, tallies have been “whittled down” or have shown his rival leading.

Using the briefing room to espouse baseless claims he is being deprived a second term by fraud, Trump thrust into question the democratic notion of a peaceful transition of power should Biden win. Instead he suggested he would fight in the courts until the election is decided in his favor.

“This is a case where they’re trying to steal an election, they’re trying to rig an election, and we can’t let that happen,” Trump said in a dour monotone, providing no evidence and departing the room without answering for his false claims..

The spectacle, though foreshadowed by the President for months, was nevertheless a sign of Trump’s unwillingness to cede the White House without a prolonged battle. Even as he complained that his own race had been rigged, Trump used the occasion to trumpet down-ballot wins by Republicans without explaining why those races wouldn’t be similarly afflicted by his claims of fraud.

His message came as new tallies show his lead dwindling in Georgia and Pennsylvania, where mail-in ballots are still being counted.

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Must-Read NY Times on Trump’s Baseless Voter Fraud Claims: “The Disinformation Is Coming From Inside the White House”

NYT:

A disinformation push to subvert the election is well underway, and it is coming straight from President Trump and his allies. The goal: to somehow stop a victory by former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., or, failing that, undermine his legitimacy before he can take office.

Mr. Trump’s false declaration of victory in the small hours of Wednesday morning quickly united hyperpartisan conservative activists and the standard-bearers of the right-wing media, such as Breitbart, with internet trolls and QAnon supporters behind a singular viral message: #StopTheSteal.

But its impact has become apparent far beyond the internet, with the theme dominating conservative talk radio and the prime-time lineup on Fox News. There, Trump-aligned hosts pressed the false notion that the vote counting in the crucial, still-undecided states was illegitimate — the sort of message that was drawing flags on Twitter and Facebook but flourishing elsewhere.

“How big of a mistake is it for the Democrats to have kind of a burn-it-all-down approach,” Laura Ingraham asked on her program Wednesday night, “to destroy the integrity of our election process with this mail-in, day-of-registration efforts, counting after the election’s over — dumping batches of votes a day, two days, maybe even three days after the election?”

The messaging was far blunter from the president himself, who used a Thursday evening briefing at the White House to reel off a series of baseless attacks on an election system he described as “rigged” by Democrats trying to “steal an election.” It was the continuation of a diatribe he had started earlier in the day with a tweet reading “STOP THE FRAUD!” that Twitter quickly flagged as containing information that “might be misleading.”

Mr. Trump and his campaign aides had long indicated that they would challenge any unwelcome result with charges that the election was being stolen through “voter fraud,” which is in fact exceedingly rare.

On Thursday, senior aides to Mr. Biden portrayed the disinformation push as part of a desperate, coordinated campaign that, in tandem with the president’s legal strategy to press lawsuits against election officials across the country, was intended to halt a count that seemed likely to end Mr. Trump’s presidency.

“This is part of a broader misinformation campaign that involves some political theater,” Bob Bauer, a senior adviser to Mr. Biden, told reporters. “All of this is intended to create a large cloud that it is the hope of the Trump campaign that nobody can see through. But it is not a very thick cloud, it’s not hard to see what they’re doing — we see through it; so will the courts, and so will election officials.”

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PA State Senate Majority Leader Takes Off the Table the Idea of the PA Legislature Trying to Appoint Presidential Electors Directly

Good to hear this, even though I think this gambit is extremely unlikely to happen (despite worries of Barton Gellman and others):

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“How Trump loyalists are driving his campaign’s legal efforts to challenge ballots”

WaPo:

In 2000, when George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore were deadlocked in the Florida vote for president, a high-powered team of legal experts flocked south to lead Bush’s ultimately successful strategy to prevail in a recount, guided by the Republican Party’s premier strategist of the time, former secretary of state James Baker.

This year, as President Trump’s campaign mounts a multistate effort to challenge the counting of ballots around the country, many of the GOP’s preeminent election-law litigators remain on the sidelines.

Instead, the legal team driving the efforts under the leadership of deputy campaign manager Justin Clark includes longtime Trump loyalists and the president’s personal attorneys. Among them: Jay Sekulow, the conservative lawyer who defended the president during the special counsel probe and the impeachment process, and William Consovoy, an experienced Supreme Court litigator who has led the efforts in New York courts to withhold the president’s tax returns from investigators.

In public, the legal maneuvers are being touted by some of the president’s most combative and unpredictable allies, including former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, former campaign manager Corey Lewandowski and Richard Grenell, Trump’s former acting director of national intelligence, as well as by Trump’s son Eric, an executive at his father’s development company, and former Florida attorney general Pam Bondi.

Their aggressive strategy, in which the campaign has sought to question the ballot count in five battleground states, has confronted some early setbacks, including the rejection by judges Thursday of its lawsuits in Michigan and Georgia.

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OSCE Issues Preliminary Reports on Observation of 2020 U.S. Elections

The report begins:

 The 3 November general elections were competitive and well managed despite legal uncertainties and logistical challenges. In a highly polarized political environment, acrimonious campaign rhetoric fuelled tensions. Measures intended to secure the elections during the pandemic triggered protracted litigation driven by partisan interests. Uncertainty caused by late legal challenges and evidence-deficient claims about election fraud created confusion and concern among election officials and voters. Voter registration and identification rules in some states are unduly restrictive for certain groups of citizens. The media, although sharply polarized, provided comprehensive coverage of the campaign and made efforts to provide accurate information on the organization of elections. Arrangements put in place by the election administrators, including for early and postal voting, together with committed civic engagement, allowed for high voter participation despite challenges posed by COVID-19 pandemic. Counting and tabulation is ongoing and should continue in accordance with the law and OSCE commitments. Baseless allegations of systematic deficiencies, notably by the incumbent president, including on election night, harm public trust in democratic institutions. 

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Very Few Votes Coming in After Nov. 3 in One PA County

As I’ve said, litigation at the Supreme Court over late arriving ballots in PA could still happen, but it would be unlikely to involve enough ballots to make the difference unless we have a race as close as Florida 2000. Here’s one data point. So far, in Erie, there are only 60 such ballots so far (they could come in as late as tomorrow under the PA Supreme Court order that’s been challenged).

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“Trump’s legal team scores small win, small losses in election fight”

Josh Gerstein for Politico:

President Donald Trump’s barrage of lawsuits related to the 2020 presidential election got off to a mixed start on Thursday, with his campaign winning closer access to ballot counting in Philadelphia but losing bids to invalidate a few dozen mail-in ballots in Georgia and for better access to counting in Michigan.

The initial flurry of suits did not appear capable of delivering a reelection victory to the president or even satisfying his repeated demands to stop the count. Instead, they seemed intended to create a cloud of legal uncertainty around the election and preserve a sense of viability around the campaign while Trump lawyers scramble for a strategy that could actually help him win.

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“Michigan judge dismisses Trump campaign lawsuit over absentee ballots”

PBS:

A Michigan judge has dismissed a lawsuit by President Donald Trump’s campaign in a dispute over whether Republican challengers had access to the handling of absentee ballots.

Judge Cynthia Stephens noted that the lawsuit was filed late Wednesday afternoon, just hours before the last ballots were counted. She also said the defendant, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, was the wrong person to sue because she doesn’t control the logistics of local ballot counting, even if she is the state’s chief election officer.

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“Georgia Judge Dismisses Trump Lawsuit Over Late Ballots”

Bloomberg:

A Georgia judge dismissed a lawsuit by President Donald Trump’s campaign that alleged dozens of late ballots were mingled with on-time ballots, dealing the latest blow to Republicans in a swing state that’s still too close to call.

“The court finds there is no evidence that the ballots referenced in the petition were received after 7 p.m. on Election Day, thereby making those ballots invalid,” Judge James Bass said in a ruling Thursday in Savannah, Georgia.

The suit related to about 50 ballots, according to the GOP’s petition, but the campaign had sought a court order directing all Georgia election officials to prevent late ballots from being counted. A ruling in Trump’s favor could have added weight to his unsupported claim of voter fraud involving mail-in ballots.

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“Legal Scholars on the Importance of Counting Every Vote”

Law Prof letter:

American history is replete with presidential elections that were not decided on Election Day. From the very first presidential election in 1788 through the 2016 election, having a sufficiently complete count of votes to confidently predict a winner on the same day that the polls close has been the exception, not the norm. That’s why all of us, who teach and write about constitutional law, election law, voting rights, and/or the rule of law, are signing this letter—reaffirming that it is deeply in line with, and not counter to, our finest traditions to count every vote, to take our time in doing so, and to not cast aspersions on the process simply because it is methodical….

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“The final implosion of Trump’s Fox News propagandists”

Greg Sargent:

With President Trump mounting a frantic, last-ditch effort to stop the counting of votes that could doom his reelection, his Fox News propagandists are wheeling into action: One after another, they are raging that the election is being stolen from Trump by all manner of chicanery and fraud.

In a way, this represents the perfect finale for them, because there may be no group of people alive who did more to construct the bubble of unreality that Trump bought into all throughout the past year.

In so doing, they had a big hand in creating the record and even the worldview — the themes and narratives and depiction of the state of the country and the true nature of the challenges it faces — on which he ended up staking his reelection.

Now they are engaged in a final rearguard effort to help prevent the American people from rendering their verdict on all of it in a free and fair election — to forestall that verdict on what they themselves wrought.

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Karl Rove Rejects Claims of Widespread Election Fraud

More of this please:

There are suspicious partisans across the spectrum who believe widespread election fraud is possible. Some hanky-panky always goes on, and there are already reports of poll watchers in Philadelphia not being allowed to do their jobs. But stealing hundreds of thousands of votes would require a conspiracy on the scale of a James Bond movie. That isn’t going to happen.

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President Trump Tweets “STOP THE COUNT” While Behind in the Electoral College Count As His Campaign Brings Small Bore Lawsuits: What’s Trump’s End Game If Race Called for Biden?

Although things remain uncertain, it appears that Joe Biden could soon be declared by news organizations as the winner of the presidential race. This depends upon finishing the count in a number of key states including states where Trump is at the moment behind (Arizona, Nevada) and places where he is ahead (Georgia, Pennsylvania). This morning Trump tweeted “STOP THE COUNT,” which is not only inconsistent with what his team is pushing for in Arizona and Nevada; it would also lead to the race being called for Biden.

The inconsistent messaging is only part of the President’s problem. He and his supporters have been promoting baseless and dangerous conspiracy theories that Democratic elected officials are somehow “stealing” the vote when all they are doing is counting the ballots. Trump is doing exactly what many of us feared and warned about: using the fact that there is a “blue shift” in votes in some places as evidence of fraud. It is nonsense and the shift comes from the order in which ballots are processed. We saw a “red shift” as voting happened in Ohio on election night because of the order in which ballots were counted there. Nothing nefarious, but conspiracy theories proliferate, now being promoted heavily by Trump and his allies, leading to confrontations where election workers have been counting votes in Detroit and in Maricopa County.

None of Trump’s small bore lawsuits have been able to stop the count, and of course there is no basis to do so. These lawsuits are tinkering on the edges claiming potentially minor infractions; nothing which would reverse any electoral college win for Biden. In none of the states where counting is done so far is it even slightly likely that a recount would make a difference. Barring some evidence of systemic failure in the count in a state that is crucial for the electoral college vote, the vote count as it ends is likely to reflect the final electoral college results. (And this would be true too if Trump ekes out an electoral college win and Biden looks for places to contest.)

Trump’s litigation strategy is not created to lead to a difference in results unless PA is the decisive electoral college state and the vote count is so close that the result would depend upon those segregated ballots arriving 3 days after election day. Indeed, one could imagine just as easily TRUMP being behind in PA and wanting to have those ballots counted (and they should be counted, regardless of who is ahead or behind.)

If Trump loses, he may grumble and the country move on, or he can try to keep yelling fraud baselessly. If he does, it will be up to responsible voices in society, including Republican leaders, to tell him to accept defeat even if he will not formally concede. This is what happened when Matt Bevin lost the Kentucky governor’s race, yelling fraud on the way out but unable to convince Republicans in the state legislature to take the vote count away from the voters.

But the viral, false claims of an election being stolen by Democrats would be used by Trump and his supporters to undermine a Biden presidency and to further undermine voter confidence among the Trump base in the legitimacy of the election process, something I have been warning about in Election Meltdown and elsewhere for some time. It is dangerous stuff to play with in a democracy, which depends upon losers accepting the results of an election as legitimate and agreeing to fight another day.

I have no doubt that if Biden loses he will concede after exhausting any legal avenues for contesting the vote. I have less confidence Trump would do so if he loses. The question is how the country moves on if Trump continues to rail baselessly against the vote count.

MORE from me in this thread.

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Fewer “Skinny Ballots” in Philly Than Feared

These are comments from City Commission Chairwoman Lisa Deeley. She is the one who wrote the letter to state officials worrying that there could be 100,000 of these ballots statewide:

Tuesday, she was here to tell you, was an utter bore. The only hiccups were the few election workers who showed up late or forgot the key to the polling place. And the city has received about 3,000 naked ballots, far fewer than had been expected.

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“Armed Agents Are Allowed in Ballot-Counting Venues, Justice Dept. Tells Prosecutors”

NYT:

The Justice Department told federal prosecutors in an email early on Wednesday that the law allowed them to send armed federal officers to ballot-counting locations around the country to investigate potential voter fraud, according to three people who described the message.

The email created the specter of the federal government intimidating local election officials or otherwise intervening in vote tallying amid calls by President Trump to end the tabulating in states where he was trailing in the presidential race, former officials said.

law prohibits the stationing of armed federal officers at polls on Election Day. But a top official told prosecutors that the department interpreted the statute to mean that they could send armed federal officers to polling stations and locations where ballots were being counted anytime after that.

The statute “does not prevent armed federal law enforcement persons from responding to, investigate, or prevent federal crimes at closed polling places or at other locations where votes are being counted,” the official, Richard P. Donoghue, told prosecutors in an email that he sent around 1:30 a.m. on Wednesday.

A Justice Department spokeswoman did not respond to a request for comment.

Mr. Donoghue, the No. 2 official in the office of the deputy attorney general, Jeffrey A. Rosen, sent his email about half an hour before Mr. Trump made reckless claims including falsely declaring himself the winner of the election and began calling for election officials to stop counting ballots.

“We want all voting to stop,” Mr. Trump said at the White House. He said, without offering details, that his campaign would “be going to the U.S. Supreme Court” over the election count. The Trump campaign said later in the day that it was filing lawsuits in multiple states, including Michigan, to halt or protest vote counts.

One state election official vowed to resist any interference or intimidation efforts by federal officials.

“Elections are a state matter, and we have authority as state officials over anyone trying to enter locations where ballots are being counted,” said Attorney General Maura Healey of Massachusetts. “Anything else is a radical reinterpretation of the law. States can handle elections, and we will ensure the people decide the outcome.”

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“Viral ‘ballot’ burning video shared by Eric Trump is fake”

CNN Business:

A viral video that purports to show about 80 “ballots,” all for Donald Trump, being burned is fake, Virginia Beach city officials say.The video, which surfaced on Tuesday, features a man with a plastic bag full of papers that look like ballots, which he doused with a flammable liquid and set aflame. The person, whose face is never shown, claims the 80 false “ballots” are “all for President Trump” on the video. Though the location is not discussed on the video, the races on the papers are from Virginia Beach, Virginia.

However, the ballots are not real. The city of Virginia Beach said the papers are clearly sample ballots, rather than official ballots, since they lack the “bar code markings that are on all official ballots,” according to a statement released on Tuesday afternoon. The statement showed an official ballot and compared it to a screenshot of the false video.

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Updated Indispensable FairVote Report: “Election recounts rarely change the outcome”

This is so useful (now including 4 more years of data):

In the midst of a presidential election tabulation that could take days, with many states showing apparently close margins, it’s worth examining the impact of election recounts. FairVote has published an update to our report, A Survey and Analysis of Statewide Election Recounts, including data on 20 years of recounts, from 2000 to 2019.

Our key finding is that recounts rarely change the outcome of the race, and margins tend to be exceptionally close in order for a change in outcome to be plausible. In the 5,778 statewide elections over the last 20 years, there have been 31 completed statewide recounts. Only three of those 31 recounts overturned the outcome of the race. In all three, the original margin of victory was less than 0.05%.

There have only been two statewide recounts in presidential elections over the last 20 years. The most memorable is perhaps the Florida recount in 2000, which lasted weeks and taught us all the term “hanging chad”. The other presidential recount occurred in 2016 in Wisconsin, at the request of Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Both recounts upheld the original victor and resulted in only small vote shifts. The Florida recount shifted the margin by 1,247 votes and the Wisconsin recount shifted the margin by 571 votes.

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Trump Campaign Says It Will Seek Recount in Wisconsin, Sues in Michigan to Temporarily Stop Counting, Stages Brooks Brother Type Event, and Intervenes in PA Case: What It All Means

There have been a number of developments since I posted this morning, Can Donald Trump Litigate His Way to Victory via the Supreme Court? Not Likely After networks called Wisconsin for Biden with about a 20,000 vote lead and counting complete, the Trump campaign said it would seek a recount. The recount effort is highly unlikely to be successful, a point former Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker acknowledged. Statewide recounts rarely work according to a Fairvote study, shifting an average of 282 votes.

The Trump campaign is also suing to try to temporarily stop the count in Michigan until additional procedures are put in place for observing the count. This lawsuit comes very late and is likely to be get the same judicial reception as the Nevada suit that lost in the Nevada Supreme Court unanimously. Allies of the campaign also engaged in a mini-Brooks Brothers riot trying to stop the counting in Detroit. As Josh Barro says, “Kind of a weird thing to do in a state where Trump is already trailing in the count.” Of course in Nevada and Arizona, where the campaign is behind, the Trump campaign is pushing to extend the count and make sure every last vote is counted.

The Trump campaign also just filed in the Supreme Court to intervene in the already existing dispute over ballots arriving over the next three days pursuant to the Pennsylvania Supreme Court order. No doubt there will be a request from one of the parties to have those ballots (which have been segregated) not included in the final count.

What to make of all of this activity? First, the effort is to slow the vote in places where the Trump campaign is behind so that these states are not called for Biden leading to a call of the Presidency for him should Biden reach 270 votes. Optically that makes it very hard for Trump. The concomitant effort is to push for further counting where Trump is behind to help him reach 270.

On top of that, the hope is that these Hail Mary legal plays could lead to court intervention to throw out votes and help Trump capture one of these states. This is possible but very unlikely for reasons Ned Foley, Joey Fishkin, and I have all given.

Finally, and most disturbingly, the effort is perhaps one to cast doubt on the legitimacy of a Biden presidency should he win. We always knew Trump would claim without evidence that fraud cost him the election. These suits let him pile up what might appear to some supporters as evidence but are actually unsupported assertions of illegality.

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“Trump wants the courts to stop the counting. He’s going to be disappointed.”

Ned Foley WaPo oped:

President Trump can rail as much as he likes, but he can’t stop the counting of valid votes. And while he is threatening to race to the Supreme Court to overturn any result against him, that, too, is likely to be a losing play — even with the bolstered conservative majority….

But even if the court were to agree with the Republicans on their federal constitutional claim, it is doubtful that a majority of justices — having allowed the state court extension to remain in place — would also agree to invalidate ballots that benefited from the extra time.

Courts often talk about reliance interests and have recognized that these are particularly important in the context of elections: the ability of voters to know what the rules of the road are and to act accordingly. Voters who relied on the state Supreme Court’s ruling were complying with the law as it existed and they reasonably understood it. The justices could correct the state Supreme Court’s error for the future and still let these ballots be counted.AD

That would be a wise way out for conservative justices. Neither the court nor the country would benefit from the justices once again intervening to determine the presidency — no matter how loudly Trump demands it.

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“GOP effort to block ‘cured’ Pennsylvania ballots gets chilly reception from judge”

Politico:

A federal judge gave a skeptical reception Wednesday to a Republican lawsuit seeking to throw out votes in a Pennsylvania county that contacted some voters to give them an opportunity to fix — or “cure” — problems with their absentee ballots.

During a morning hearing in Philadelphia, U.S. District Court Judge Timothy Savage said he was dubious of arguments from a lawyer for GOP congressional candidate Kathy Barnette, who argued that the Pennsylvania Supreme Court had concluded that the law prohibits counties from allowing voters who erred in completing or packaging their mail-in ballots to correct those mistakes.

“I’m not sure about that,” said Savage, an appointee of President George W. Bush. “Is that exactly what was said or is what was said was that there is no mandatory requirement that the election board do that?….Wasn’t the legislative intent of the statute we are talking about to franchise, not disenfranchise, voters?”

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Can Donald Trump Litigate His Way to Victory via the Supreme Court? Not Likely

I’ve been saying consistently that the only way the 2020 presidential election ends up being decided by the courts is if there is a dispute in a state that is central to an electoral college victory and that the dispute in that state is so close (or there is such a massive failure in the election) that the election is within the margin of litigation.

As of this moment (though things can change) it does not appear that either condition will be met. It does not seem that Pennsylvania will be crucial to a Biden electoral college victory and so any litigation over ballots there would not matter.

Even if it came down to Pennsylvania, it would have to be so close that there would be something to litigate over. If it is tens of thousands of votes separating the candidates (as currently in the Michigan totals), it is virtually impossible that a recount or litigation could change an outcome.

Of course, if it does come down to a state like PA and it comes down to ballots arriving between Nov. 3 and 6, the Republicans can go back to the Supreme Court in an attempt to get those thrown out. For reasons I’ve explained, the reliance interest of the voters makes this very unlikely (and the Supreme Court passed up two chances to act on this).

The other lawsuits in PA don’t seem to present much hope for flipping a lot of votes; they involve what appears to be a relatively small number of provisional ballots.

So could the election be litigated to a conclusion? Sure. But it’s not likely unless there is significant tightening in both the electoral college projections and the absolute margin in a key state.

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