In a thoughtful and lengthy analysis of the Texas redistricting case, Beldar predicts a summary affirmance by the Supreme Court. I’m not so sure. That is certainly possible, and perhaps it is the most likely result. But as I’ve indicated here, the only rational way of reading the remand of the Texas redistricting case is that Justice Kennedy wanted another crack at this issue, and he might make up his mind about what to do by the time this case reemerges at the Supreme Court. Also, if the Chief retires and is replaced by someone more sympathetic to the policing of partisan gerrymanders, we could well end up with a 5-justice majority reviving the cause of action. I don’t think we can predict anything with confidence on this issue. (By the way, here is another partisan gerrymandering case out of Pennsylvania that is working its way through the courts.)
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