I have written this post for the ACSBlog. It begins:

Does this week’s Ninth Circuit order putting on hold any gay marriages in California pending the resolution of appeals in the case mean that the appellate court is likely to reverse Judge Walker’s decision declaring California’s Proposition 8 unconstitutional? Or, to the contrary, does the fact that the Ninth Circuit also ordered the parties to brief the question whether the initiative proponents have standing to appeal in the case mean that the Court is likely to dismiss the appeal without reaching the merits? I believe caution is in order, and that proponents and opponents of gay marriage should read very little into the Ninth Circuit’s order as to how that court is likely to decide the Proposition 8 case. But the Ninth Circuit’s decision to issue a stay could increase the chances that the Supreme Court ultimately will side with gay marriage supporters.