October 31, 2004Will We Know Who the Next President is by Wednesday?With just about all of the national polls showing the race dead even or within the margin of error, it is tempting to overestimate the chances of post-election litigation. I will continue to stick by my prediction that there is still only a 10% chance that we see a delay in knowing the winner of the election because of post-election litigation. As I've said, for there to be post-election litigation that is outcome determinative, we will need a sufficiently large problem in a battleground state whose electoral votes will matter for the electoral college tally. How likely is that? First, it is not all that clear that the election will be very close in absolute terms. True, the polls show a dead even race. But look at the figures from 2000. A Gallup tracking poll from Oct. 29, 2000 had Bush over Gore by 7. With all the new registrations this year, the increased use of cell phones, lots of people screening phone calls, and many anecdotal stories about increased turnout, polling based on likely voters may well be off by at least a few percent. Historically, as Lawrence Jacobs has noted, "only two of the last 10 presidential elections had total voting margins of less than 1 percent...and even in those races the differences in close states were measured in thousands or tens of thousands of votes." We would have to have another razor-thin race in absolute terms, as last time, where, according to this chart, two states were within 1,000 votes and two more states within 6,000 votes. Even if one state is that close, it would have to be a state that matters to the outcome of the Electoral College. Many of the Electoral College predictions have also been razor thin, but the predictions are volatile. The Slate daily prediction has vascillated between slightly Bush and slightly Kerry all week now shows Kerry with a 299-239 lead (though noting "his lead is shakier than it looks"). It is possible that either candidate ends up with an electoral college landslide if the popular vote polls are off by just a percentage in one direction or another. The most likely candidates for a state that could plunge the country into litigation chaos are battleground states with the most votes and that remain very close, mostly Ohio and Florida. In September I called Ohio the most likely candidate for post-election problems and I still believe that. But the chances of problems in Ohio have been somewhat minimized by pre-election litigation. Remember, that courts have resolved issues in Ohio related to wrong precinct votes, voter identification, pre-election day challenges of voters, and other issues. By tomorrow, we expect rulings on how election day challenges will be conducted there. Of course, if the margin in Ohio is razor-thin in absolute vote terms (i.e., votes within the thousands or fewer), and Ohio's votes are determinative of the outcome of the election, post-election litigation is all but guaranteed. There can be mini-wars fought over many of the provisional ballots, and they will be fought. Along the way, there will be charges of equal protection violations (are elections officials throughout Ohio using the same standards for deciding which provisional ballots should be counted?) and allegations of fraud and vote suppression. These are all fact intensive questions that could gum up the works for weeks. So we are not out of the woods by any means. Still, it would take another "perfect storm" to make the courts, rather than the people, in the position of ultimate arbiters. In the short term, there's not much we can do now. In the longer term, we need some radical surgery for our system of election administration. More about that to come.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 10:41 PM
News RoundupNot to be missed is the Los Angeles Times Sunday opinion section, devoted almost entirely to election law issues, including an article by Jack Rakove calling for chaos on Tuesday and a piece by Tony Quinn on partisan gerrymandering. The New York Times offers When the Voting Bloc Lives Inside a Cellblock, Charges of Dirty Tricks, Fraud and Voter Suppression Already Flying in Several States, In Final Days Before Vote, Divided Electorate Expresses Anxiety and Concern, and What to Do on Election Day (editorial). The Washington Post offers Poll Chiefs Brace for Substantial Challenges and David Broder's column, "What Democracy Needs: Real Races" (which incorrectly states: "The Supreme Court has accepted a Texas redistricting case that will give the justices another opportunity to speak to the issue of political gerrymandering..."). Newsweek offers A Long Shadow: Bush v. Gore roiled a nation. It's back—and, given Rehnquist's health, looming larger than ever. U.S. News and World Report offers The fix that wasn't; A new law designed to iron out voting problems may have done just the opposite. Newsday offers Going Nose to Nose in Ohio. Fred Wertheimer writes Why the FEC is Wrong on Soft Money Groups in the Boston Globe. David Harwood writes Election System a Failure in the Denver Post.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 10:02 PM
October 30, 2004Court Order in Ohio: One Challenger Per Challenging Entity on Election DayMore about this tomorrow or Monday. The order is here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:02 PM
Saturday roundupHere are some interesting election law newspaper articles and commentaries out today: Colorado: As the Race Tightens, Enthusiasm for a Ballot Proposal Wanes (NYT on Amendment 36) Florida: Investigation of Felons Is Delayed Until After Election (NYT) Looking Back: Lessons of 2000 Shape Strategy of Today (NYT) In Ohio Courts, It is Almost Like Florida in 2000 (LAT) Shelley Retreats as Legal Storms Brew (LAT) An Idea, With 4 Words, That Was Supposed to Soothe the Tone of Ads but Did Not (NYT, on BCRA's "Stand By Your Ad" Provision) 60 Tax-Exempt Groups Under Investigation; At Issue Are IRS Regulations That Bar Political Activities (WaPo)
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:00 PM
October 29, 2004"Another Wait Feared in Knowing the Winner"The Washington Post offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:05 PM
"Officials Say Two Court Rulings Will Halt G.O.P. Challenges"The New York Times offers from Ohio.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:03 PM
Exit Poll Antitrust?The American Antitrust Institute has issued this press release, "Renamed Voter News Service Risks Another Failure: AAI renews call to disband media JV for exit polling." Link via David Giacolone.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 03:10 PM
Findlaw Election 2004 Litigation PageYou can find it here. Findlaw did a great job with the California recall documents last year, and I expect this to be a very useful site should there be post-election problems.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 02:38 PM
"Judge Extends Deadline for Overseas Voters"A.P. offers this report from Pennsylvania.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 11:23 AM
"Pa. Gov. Seeks Military Ballots Extension"A.P. offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:28 AM
Colorado's Amendment 36 Down in PollsSee this Denver Post poll (link via Political wire).
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:26 AM
"GOP: Florida Felons Already Voting"The St. Petersburg Times offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:23 AM
"E-Mail Reveals Postal Service May Have Mishandled Broward Ballots"The Sun-Sentinel offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:19 AM
Don't Forget Minnesota!In addition to the Republican suit over election judges (documents here),, the ACLU has filed a HAVA-related suit (complaint here) alleging that Minnesota's identification rules violate HAVA.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:13 AM
"Attorney Poll Monitors Wait in the Wings"Law.com offers this report. Thanks to Steven Sholk for the link.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:09 AM
"Bound to Be Wild: A vote-counting debacle this time could make 2000 look tame"The Winston-Salem Journal offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:08 AM
EditorialsThe Los Angeles Times offers A Messed Up Voting System. The New York Times offers The Return of the Butterfly Ballot.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:05 AM
"Bush Seeks to Limit Suits Over Voting Rights"Don't miss this Los Angeles Times article.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:02 AM
Sixth Circuit Quickly Denies Appeal of TRO in Vote Challenge CaseI have not seen the 2 page order yet. (UPDATE: Order is here.) This challenge related to pre-election day challenges by Republican challengers. There are currently two suits seeking to stop election day challenges as well in Ohio. See also Ohio Court Battles Flare Over Challenges to Voters in the New York Times.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:01 AM
"The Nine in a Pickle"Ned Foley offers this oped, which originally appeared in the New York Sun. It begins: "There is a common perception - actually a misperception, in my judgment - that the U.S. Supreme Court determined who won the White House in 2000. Even if Bush v. Gore had not stopped the Florida recount, it is most likely that the current President Bush would have been the occupant of the Oval Office anyway."
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:57 AM
"10,000 Lawyers Mass to Attack 2004 Election"Daniel Henniger offers this Wall Street Journal. Thanks to Steven Sholk for the link.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:56 AM
Three from ABA E-JournalSee Provisional Ballots Add to Tally Confustion Lawyers Answer Call for Duty in Battleground States Rocking the Vote (on potential legal challenges to Colorado's Amendment 36)
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:53 AM
October 28, 2004Justice Thomas Speaks Out on Bush v. GoreSee this A.P. report. A snippet:
"What do you think? Donald Duck is going to decide it?" When asked about the prospect of more litigation over the 2004 vote, Thomas said, "I would prefer not to have to decide it, but that joins a long list of things," adding: "It's my job." Of course, Bush v. Gore came up as a matter of discretionary review. The Court could have decided not to take the case.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 04:21 PM
"Provisional Ballot Controversy Nears End"A.P. offers this report, with an overly optimistic headline.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 03:08 PM
"Ohio's Electoral Process in Disarray"A.P. offers this report, which begins: "Ohio's attorney general on Thursday appealed a federal judge's order that halted hearings on Republican challenges to thousands of voter registrations in this pivotal battleground state." I had thought (from my limited understanding of civil procedure) that TROs are not appealable in federal court. Perhaps I'm wrong about that.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 03:06 PM
More on a Recess Appointment to Decide "Bush v. Kerry"See this Slate column by Mark Moller.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 02:16 PM
New Ohio Voting suitDan Tokaji has the details here Dan reports: "The lawsuit alleges that the practice of challenging voters on election day denies the voting rights of African Americans in Hamilton County."
Posted by Rick Hasen at 02:05 PM
"Gov. Bush: Poll Watchers Can, Should Challenge Voters"The St. Petersburg Times offers this report, which begins: "Gov. Jeb Bush said Wednesday he would have no problem if Republican poll watchers challenge the eligibility of voters before they cast ballots on Election Day, despite growing concern that it could create gridlock and scare away qualified voters."
Posted by Rick Hasen at 01:41 PM
Challenge to Kerry Elector?Electoral-Vote.com notes the following:
Brown is indeed listed as a presidential elector: see here on page 11. I assume that this would be an issue to be taken up, if necessary, in Congress when it counts electoral votes. I'd like to hear about any theories that could land this in court. UPDATE: A reader writes: "My understanding (from Rep. Brown’s office) is that Rep. Brown has resigned and that the chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party will be able to appoint another elector." I'll let you know if I receive confirmation of this report. CQ is now reporting:
shouldn't have accepted in the first place as one of the 20 presidential electors from Ohio if Democrat John Kerry carries that fiercely contested state. The U.S. Constitution specifies that states shall not appoint as electors any "senator or representative or person holding an office of trust or profit under the United States." That very clearly includes a sitting member of the House of Representatives. "We fixed it," Brown said. "We sent a letter to the state party and they're going to accept, obviously, the resignation and appoint someone else." He added, "I'd rather it hadn't happened." The Ohio Democratic Party did not immediately return messages seeking information about its Electoral College replacement for Brown, who once served as Ohio's top elections official. The six-term congressman is heavily favored to win re-election next week repr! esenting the 13th District, which encompasses Cleveland suburbs and parts of Akron.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:34 AM
Roll Call on a Bush Recess Appointment to Help Decide "Another Bush v. Gore"?So suggests the spokesperson for a conservative judicial group in this Roll Call article. Paid subscription required.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:34 AM
"Road to White House May Run Into Detours"The San Jose Mercury News offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:30 AM
"Election Suits are Filed Early and Often"The Los Angeles Times offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:28 AM
"Private Political Donations Can Have a Business Price"The New York Times offers this profile of Jerry Perenchio.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:26 AM
"Passion and Election Disputes on Rise in Florida as Vote Nears"The New York Times offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:22 AM
"What Could Go Wrong, Part I"CBSNews offers the first part in a 3-part series on potential election day problems.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:16 AM
Two from the Wall Street JournalSteven Sholk sends along links to If Election Isn't Resolved Nov. 2, Battles Loom in Seven Key States and Getting Out the Vote, With a Cookie, an article on payments for turnout (something illegal in federal elections but increasingly done).
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:13 AM
Unlimited contributions for recount fundsBob Bauer reports here that two requests to the FEC for advisory opinions on fundraising for recount funds have been withdrawn. "The only law on the question is now found in section 100.85 of the Commission regulations. That section allows for candidates to raise unlimited individual and PAC funds to pay the costs of recounts and contests." UPDATE: Trevor Potter and Bob Bauer are hashing this out here (scroll near the bottom). Bob also notes that the correct regulation number is 100.91.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:09 AM
October 27, 2004Television appearancesI'll be talking about potential post-election litigation tomorrow morning 10am eastern on Dolans Unscripted, Thursday morning (10 EDT) on CNNfn. On Friday evening, I'll appear on the new Wall Street Journal's television program on PBS, Journal Report, talking about potential challenges to Colorado's Amendment 36. On Sunday evening, I'm scheduled to appear on NBC's Dateline at 7 pm EST (clock change) talking about potential post-election litigation. All appearances are of course subject to last minute cancellations.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 06:18 PM
Conflicting Ohio Rulings on ChallengesA judge in Cleveland denied a TRO to stop the GOP voter registration challenges there, but a judge in Cincinnati has granted such a TRO, pending a hearing on the preliminary injunction Friday. Dan Tokaji has the details here. According to this press release issued by the judge in Cincinnati, the order applies to a numbrer of counties, including Cuyahoga (the county including Cleveland).
Posted by Rick Hasen at 05:56 PM
"Rules a Moving Target"The Rocky Mountain News offers this report about a recently released 83-page election manual in Colorado.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 11:42 AM
Bush v. Gore DebateThe New York County Lawyers Association Inn of Court presents Bush v. Gore Thursday, October 28, 2004 withh speakers Floyd Abrams, Esq., co-counsel to the New York Times in the Pentagon Papers case, partner at Cahill, Gordon & Reindel and Columbia Law School professor Moderated by Adam Liptak, Esq., National Legal Correspondent of the New York Times
Posted by Rick Hasen at 11:28 AM
In other election law news...A federal district court, Eastern District of California, issued a preliminary injunction against the California Fair Political Practices Commission today, in a lawsuit (and PI application) filed by the California Republican Party, the California Democratic Party and the Orange County Republican Party, which enjoins the FPPC from enforcing the advertising disclosure provisions of CA Government Code sections 84503 and 84506 that require “major funding disclosure” of the top two donors to these general purpose committees on the advertising publications themselves. The scanned opinion is too large for me to post. A federal district court in Missouri has upheld a decision to deny a mentally incapacitated person the right to vote. The opinion is here and AP is here. A federal court is hearing arguments today on whether the controversial immigration initiative in Arizona, Prop. 200, should be removed from the ballot because of petition problems. See this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 11:26 AM
"Postal Experts Hunt for Missing Ballots in Florida"Reuters has this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:33 AM
Democrats' Complaint Against Ohio Republican Voter Registration ChallengesYou can find the complaint here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:24 AM
"The Electoral College Does It Better"Benjamin Zycher offers this commentary in the Los Angeles Times.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:23 AM
Long Lines at Polls? Will Voting Hours Be ExtendedThe Miami Herald reports here of up to three-hour waits for those wishing to cast early votes. With plenty of news reports of polls not being adequately staffed on Election Day, there is reason to worry that there could be litigation to keep polls open longer (something that happened in St. Louis last time and remains mired in controversy last time). I don't know Florida's law on polling hours, but Ohio's law is like California's: whoever is standing in line at the time the polls close gets to vote, but no one new can join the line (see Ohio Rev. Code section 3501.32(A)). If there are just a few people in line, this is easy to police. But if there are very long lines because of voting glitches or an inadequate number of poll workers, it will be very hard to police. It would not surprise me to see someone go to court to try to keep the polls open later, and this is something I suspect that will be vigorously opposed by some. The long lines for early voting too make early voting to avoid these problems somewhat problematic.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:20 AM
Two from Wall Street JournalSee Making Expat Votes Count and As a Final Gambit, Parties Are Trying to Damp Turnout. Thanks to Steven Sholk for the links.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:11 AM
"Texas Democratic Lawyers Join in Effort to Protect the Vote"Law.com offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:06 AM
October 26, 2004"Signs of Voter Fraud Appear"The Los Angeles Times offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 10:25 PM
"Election Boards Face Suit"See this report in the Columbus Dispatch.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 10:21 PM
Two from the New York TimesThe newspaper offers Expect Bush v. Kerry, the Chadless Sequel and Judge Rules Against 10,000 Floridians Barred from Voting. The newspaper also offers an editorial, The Three-Hour Poll Tax.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 10:06 PM
Two From the Washington PostSee Legal Battles Over Ballots Put Election Rules in Flux and Electoral College Calculus: Computer Analysis Shows 33 Ways to End in a Tie. The paper also offers an editorial on voting rights for felons and Election by Litigation from Robert J. Samuelson.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:59 PM
"Appeals Court Reverses Michigan Ballot Rule"A.P. offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 04:20 PM
"Behind the Looming Ballot Clash"The Christian Science Monitor offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 04:08 PM
Wang on Ohio HAVA ProblemsTova Wang (Century Foundation) has posted Eyes on the Buckeyes, the first in a series of papers on HAVA issues in the battleground states.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 04:00 PM
Nader Loses in Supreme Court on Ohio Ballot AccessOr so I hear from a reliable source. The ruling is not yet on the Supreme Court's website. UPDATE: AP confirms the report here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 03:55 PM
Sixth Circuit Issues Its Opinion in Ohio Provisional Voting CaseYou can find the opinion here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 03:47 PM
Judge Dismisses Federal Lawsuit Challenging Colorado's Amendment 36The A.P. report is here. I haven't seen the opinion yet. Most likely (from the A.P.'s general description) the federal judge abstained, ruling that the state courts should decide this first. Why would a federal court do so, given that the issues raised are federal constitutional issues? Because the state court could potentially give the initiative a construction under state law that could avoid federal constitutional issues. Plaintiff Jason Napolitano says he won't appeal. So this case is over, and unless someone sues quickly in state court, we won't have a resolution of this issue before Election Day. UPDATE: A reader writes that the judge ruled from the bench, and that abstention was the third reason given for dismissal, after standing and ripeness concerns. It is not clear if there will be a written opinion. The reader also notes that there were intervenors who pushed the Article II issue; presumably they could appeal. UPDATE II: The NY Times offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 11:45 AM
"Partisan Suspicions Run High in Swing State"The Los Angeles Times offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:33 AM
More Briefs in Albuquerque Spending Limits CaseYou can find them posted here. Of particular interest is the brief of Sen. Hollings and other Senators supporting spending limits.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:18 AM
"Is E-Voting Secure"CBSNews has posted this story about an upcoming 60 Minutes II broadcast.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:15 AM
Report from Center for Voting Rights and ProtectionYou can access "Republican Ballot Security Programs: Vote Protection, Minority Vote Suppression--Or Both" here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:11 AM
"Rehnquist Ill, Making Court Election Topic"The NY Sun offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:59 AM
"The Origins of the Electoral College"Joshua Spivak has this analysis in The Hill.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:57 AM
Olson and Boies on Post-Election Litigation in the New York TimesYou can find the opeds here and here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:56 AM
October 25, 2004"Republicans Claim Democrats are Behind Office Attacks"The New York Times offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:34 PM
"Despite New Fundraising Rules, Parties Collect a Record $ 1 Billion"The New York Times offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:32 PM
"Some Fear Ohio Will Be the Florida of 2004"The Washington Post offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:31 PM
"Debacle Redux"Roll Call offers this editorial (paid subscription required).
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:30 PM
"Could the Federal Election Be Postponed?"The Wall Street Journal offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:28 PM
NPR All Things Considered Focuses on Election Administration QuestionsThe stories include The 2004 Election and the Courts (with Nina Totenberg) and Experts Question Security of Voting Machines (with Pam Fessler).
Posted by Rick Hasen at 04:31 PM
"Another Fine Mess?"U.S. News and World Report offers this article on the potential for post-election litigation.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 04:10 PM
"Republicans Make Gains in Voting Disputes"A.P. offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 04:06 PM
"Republicans Threaten Lawsuit Over Voter Registration Issue"The Des Moines Register offers this report, which begins: "Controversy over Iowa's election laws heated up this morning when Republicans threatened to file a lawsuit and called for Iowa Secretary of State Chet Culver's resignation, just eight days before Election Day. At issue is the requirement that voters registering by mail check a box confirming U.S. citizenship. Republicans allege Culver, a Democrat, is violating state and federal election laws by deciding last week that he'll allow Iowa voters to bypass that requirement."
Posted by Rick Hasen at 03:39 PM
Lithwick on the Possibility of Post-Election LitigationIn this article on the Chief Justice's illnesss, Slate's Dahlia Lithwick writes:
For now, we wish the chief justice a speedy and full recovery.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 03:03 PM
"The Return of Vote-Pairing"Jamin Raskin offers this commentary on Slate, with the following subhead: "Vote-pairing nearly saved Al Gore in 2000. Could it give Kerry a decisive boost this year?"
Posted by Rick Hasen at 02:57 PM
"Should Colorado Be Allowed to Split Its Electoral Votes?"Richard Epstein and Sandy Levinson debate this question at Legal Affairs Debate Club.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 01:49 PM
More briefs in the Nader Ohio litigation in the U.S. Supreme Court now postedSee here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 01:16 PM
Gerken on the Political ThicketHeather Gerken has written Lost in the Political Thicket in the current issue of Legal Affairs.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 12:58 PM
"Ohio GOP Drops Registration Challenges"A.P. offers this report, which begins: "State Republicans withdrew thousands of more than 35,000 challenges to new voter registrations because of errors in their filings apparently caused by a computer glitch." Another snippet: "But the largest single batch of challenges, some 17,000 in Cuyahoga County, is still being processed because there were no errors, said Jane Platten, elections board spokeswoman."
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:57 AM
"Judge Dismisses Touch-Screen Voting Suit"A.P. offers this report from Florida.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:13 AM
More on Fraud AllegationsFollowing up on this post, Alleging Fraud is Easier than Proving Fraud, readers might be interested in Securing the Vote: An Analysis of Election Fraud by Professor Lori Minnite and David Callahan of DEMOs. Here is the executive summary:
Since the 2000 election, a historic effort has been underway to strengthen voting systems across the 50 U.S. states and also to address obstacles to broader electoral participation.However, at both the federal and state level, efforts to move forward a reformagenda have frequently been complicated by heated debates over issues of election fraud and the integrity of voting systems. In Congress, disagreement over voter identification provisions in federal election reform legislation resulted in an acrimonious legislative process that delayed passage ofthe Help America Vote Act. The 2002 election further underscored the salience of the issue in U.S. electoral politics.With control of the U.S. Senate hanging on the outcome of at least eight Senate races too close to call, the integrity of all ballots was viewed as a matter of grave importance. Allegations of fraudulent registration and balloting, as well as voter intimidation, were made in a number of states.Opponents of efforts to make voting easier and more accessible often cite the potential for election fraud as a reason to oppose reforms, such as election day registration, aimed at addressing one of the most challenging issues facing our electoral system: low voter turnout. As federal and state officials consider future reform efforts, as well as the merits of existing reforms, and begin implementing the new Help America Vote Act, there is an acute need for better information and analysis about election fraud issues. Yet to date there have been no major studies of election fraud in the United States. Too often, hearsay and anecdotal stories are put forth as fact during critical policy deliberations. This research report provides a new foundation of information and analysis to inform public discussions about the integrity of America’s electoral system.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:53 AM
"Make-or-Break Balloting"The Wall Street Journal offers this report, with the following subhead: "Election of '04 May Be Key To Future of Electronic Voting And Principal Player Diebold." Thanks to Steven Sholk for the link.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:30 AM
"Legal Battles Loom Over Voting Rules"NPR offers this audio report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:26 AM
"The Choice"The New Yorker offers this comment. A snippet relevant to election law: "Bush v. Gore was so shoddily reasoned and transparently partisan that the five justices who endorsed the decision declined to put their names on it, while the four dissenters did not bother to conceal their disgust. There are rules for settling electoral disputes of this kind, in federal and state law and in the Constitution itself. By ignoring them—by cutting off the process and installing Bush by fiat—the Court made a mockery not only of popular democracy but also of constitutional republicanism."
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:25 AM
"The Electoral College is Good for America"National Review Online offers this commentary by Gary L. Gregg.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:23 AM
"Portrait of a Country on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown"The Independent (U.K.) offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:21 AM
"Reforms Not Stopping Flow of Campaign Cash"NPR offers this audio report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:18 AM
New Paper on SSRNI have posted The Supreme Court and Election Law: A Reply to Three Commentators on SSRN. Here is the abstract:
In this Reply, I defend my approach. Professor Nagle is right that the Court often strays from the right path when it decides election law cases on appearances alone, but he fails to recognize how conceiving of election law synthetically informs Court decisionmaking on issues such as the justiciability of partisan gerrymandering claims. Professor Fuentes-Rohwer's general suggestion of Court exit from the political thicket has much to commend it in the abstract, but he fails to evaluate my proposal as a second best approach, particularly compared to the main alternative floating around election law circles today, the structuralist approach that focuses on appropriate political competition. Finally, Professor Charles puts his finger on the most difficult aspect of my book, and I welcome his decision to take my proposed distinction between core and contested equality claims seriously.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:16 AM
"Storm Clouds Gathering Over Legitimacy of Election"Ron Brownstein offers this Los Angeles Times column.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:12 AM
"Paper Ballot Option an Unofficial Secret"The Los Angeles Times offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:11 AM
October 24, 2004Alleging Fraud is Easier Than Proving FraudIn George Will's column that I linked to earlier today, George Will refers to John Fund's book on voter fraud, which has serious allegations that need scholarly investigation. One incident mentioned came out of Kenosha Wisconsin. A blog reader writes me to tell me that as far as that incident goes, Fund mentions only the initial charges, but not that a special prosecutor later found the charges were completely without merit. The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel article on the investigation is here and confirms the reader's account. It is very hard to prove election fraud, and even harder in most cases to prove that enough fraud exists to change the outcome of federal elections.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:04 PM
"In N.M., Spotlight is on Voting Rights"The Washington Post offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:52 PM
"Electronic Voting Raises New Issues"The Washington Post offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:50 PM
Nader Still Seeking Supreme Court Review to Get on Ohio BallotThe application for stay and injunction is here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:45 PM
New Edition of 501(c)(3) election guideSteven Sholk writes that an updated version of his article, "A Guide
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:38 PM
"What Congress Should Do"The New York Times offers this editorial on suggested election administration reforms.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:37 PM
"Bush v. Kerry? Don't Do It Justices"Garrett Epps has this oped in today's Washington Post.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:35 PM
Michigan Provisional Voting Ruling Stayed By Sixth CircuitSee this A.P. report. Given what this same panel did yesterday with the Ohio appeal (see here), there is little question that wrong precinct votes won't be counted in Michigan either this election. UPDATE: It is noted here that the results in the Michigan case may be different to the extent the lower court ruling depends on state law.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 01:54 PM
Justice Breyer Comments on Bush v. GoreSee this San Jose Mercury News report. A snippet: ``I had to ask myself would I vote the same way if the names were reversed,'' said Breyer, a Clinton appointee who is considered a moderate liberal on the often divided court. ``I said `yes.' But I'll never know for sure because people are great self-kidders.''
Posted by Rick Hasen at 10:21 AM
"Judicial Races in Several States Becoming Partisan Battlegrounds"The New York Times offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:37 AM
"Democrats Launched Secret Effort on Soft Money"This report appears on the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review website, with a notation that it came originally from the Washington Post. I do not see it on the Post's website.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:41 AM
"Jones Urges Shelley to 'Step Aside' Before Vote"The Los Angeles Times offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:34 AM
"Ex-Convicts Discover Right to Vote"The Los Angeles Times offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:33 AM
"A Margin of Victory? Try instead a Margin of Litigation"Dick Polman offers this column in the Philadelphia Inquirer.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:22 AM
Iowa Attorney General Says Wrong Precinct Votes Will Count in Federal ElectionsEd Still has the story, and the AG opinion, here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:20 AM
Here is the Sixth Circuit Order; Opinion Has Not Yet IssuedSee here. It is possible that Ohio could eventually appeal that aspect of the ruling noting that HAVA creates a right of individuals to sue. This could be important later on down the line. Howard Bashman has collected more news coverage here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:11 AM
October 23, 2004BREAKING NEWS: Sixth Circuit Reverses Provisional Ballot Ruling Out of OhioThe A.P. reports here that a Sixth Circuit panel has reversed the district court decision requiring Ohio elections officials to count provisional ballots cast in a precinct other than the precinct at which a voter was registered. The A.P. story indicates as well that the Democrats have decided not to appeal. The Sixth Circuit moved very quickly; it had set Tuesday as a potential date for oral argument if necessary, but it acted before argument issuing its opinion late Saturday. The opinion does not appear to be posted on line, but the A.P. story does not indicate there were any dissents. Two of the judges on the panel were Reagan appointees, and one was a Clinton appointee. This is an extremely significant event. Of all the potential post-election litigation scenarios, I have pegged provisional voting controversies as the most likely to lead to such litigation, and Ohio provisional balloting litigation at the very top of the list because I expected this contentious litigation to be ongoing through Election Day and beyond. The Democrats made a good choice for the electoral system (though not necessarily for their partisan interests) by deciding not to appeal---sometimes it is more important for the law to be certain than to be right, and this is one of those times. This does not mean that other circuit courts won't reach contrary decisions or that someone won't eventually try to get the Supreme Court involved. But certainty in Ohio (and likely Michigan, which is also in the 6th Circuit) should help lessen the possibility of post-election problems.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:49 PM
Butterfly Ballot II?A.P. offers Layout Confuses Some Absentee Voters, which begins: "CLEVELAND (AP) -- Absentee voters in the most populous county of a critical state in the presidential election are complaining about a ballot layout that they say might prompt some people to choose the wrong candidate, or none at all."
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:49 AM
Ohio Sec. of State Runs TV Ads About Voting in the Correct PrecinctChris Geidner reports here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:44 AM
"Legal Battles Could Cloud Outcomes in Key States"The San Francisco Chronicile offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:43 AM
"A Campaign Finance Law That Works"Senators McCain and Feingold offer this letter to the editor of the Washington Post.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:41 AM
"Another Tight Race Could End in Court"The Boston Globe offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:40 AM
"Prepare for Litigation-Filled Post-Election"Scripps Howard News Service offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:39 AM
October 22, 2004Federal district court rules Box 10 Litigation in Ohio Came Too LateThe document is posted here on the indispensable OSU website, which now has the best collection of 2004 election litigation documents on the Internet. They have also posted the Florida district court decision on provisional ballots here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:01 PM
Record Early Voting FiguresSee this report in the Washington Post.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:49 PM
"No Direct Evidence of Plot to Attack Around Directions"The Washington Post offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:46 PM
"Big G.O.P Bid to Challenge Voters at Polls in Key State"The New York Times offers this front-page report, which begins: "Republican Party officials in Ohio took formal steps yesterday to place thousands of recruits inside polling places on Election Day to challenge the qualifications of voters they suspect are not eligible to cast ballots."
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:43 PM
"Justice Department Weighs in on Ohio Ballots"A.P. offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 06:28 PM
Survey of Voters' Preferences for Voting Technology PlannedSee this press release from Ball State University.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 03:06 PM
Vote Buying in West Virginia?See this BBC report. Link via SW Virginia Law Blog.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 03:04 PM
"Integrity of Florida Virtual Vote in Doubt"A.P. offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 03:02 PM
"Provisional Voting Case Nears High Court"A.P. offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 02:59 PM
Voter Fraud StoriesSee Voters Report Fake Calls from the Columbus Dispatch.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 01:22 PM
"Key States' Ballot Officials Feel Glare of Critical Eyes"The Los Angeles Times offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:47 AM
"State Elections Chief Limits Poll Watchers"The Denver Post offers this report, which begins: "Colorado Secretary of State Donetta Davidson issued strict guidelines for poll watchers across the state today, limiting each party to one person per station and banning outside groups from sending out teams of lawyers to monitor the closely watched election."
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:34 AM
"Voters Registering Nov. 2 Seen as Key in Four Swing States"The Boston Globe offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:29 AM
Nader Goes to U.S. Supreme Court to Try to Get on Pennsylvania BallotHere is the A.P. story. The Court will likely reject this one quickly.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:27 AM
"The Media's Shrinking Free Speech Zone"Ryan Sager offers these thoughts at Tech Central Station.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:25 AM
"Minnesota Supreme Court Ponders Election Day Lineup"The Duluth News offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:22 AM
"Ballot Initiatives and the Future of Political Parties"NPR's Talk of the Nation yesterday discussed the primary initiatives in California and Washington.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:19 AM
"California Scrambles to Prepare for Election"A.P. offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:14 AM
District Court in Florida Issues Provisional Voting Ruling Stating that Provisional Votes Cast in "Wrong" Precinct Don't CountThe A.P. story is here. So far, I have not been able to find the opinion on line. If someone sends it to me, I'll post it.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:12 AM
"Poll Monitors Brace for Nov. 2"The Wall Street Journal offers this report, which begins: "Wisconsin Republicans are conducting background checks on roughly 100,000 newly registered voters and training more than 50,000 volunteers to monitor precincts on Election Day and lodge challenges against voters they view as questionable." Thanks to Steven Sholk for the pointer.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:07 AM
"'Provisional' Democracy"The Wall Street Journal offers this editorial.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:04 AM
October 21, 2004"Election disputes may wind up before Supreme Court, expert says"Knight-Ridder offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:50 PM
"Florida, Ohio Try to Avoid Vote-Count Fiasco, Revamp Voting Machines"Bloomberg offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:49 PM
On Foxnews TonightI should be on Greta Van Susteren's On the Record talking about potential post-election litigation. The show starts at 10 pm ET, and I should be on some time after 10:30. As always, these appearances are subject to last minute change and cancellation.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 03:13 PM
"International Observer Team Urges Reforms in US Electoral Process"Common Dreams offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 11:49 AM
Looking for My Views on the Potential for Post-Election Litigation?I have been getting a large number of inquiries regarding the potential for post-election litigation. I have added a set of links on the right side of the blog to my recent Slate article on the topic, as well as other major posts and commentaries of mine on the topic.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 11:22 AM
"Proposition 62 Would Squelch Innovation in State's Politics"Richard Winger wrote this oped in the San Jose Mercury News.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:10 AM
Post-election conference announcementPost-Election Conference on Voting Issues & Campaign Finance Recap Wed., November 17th, 9 AM – Noon at the St. Regis Hotel (16th and K), Mount Vernon Room Co-hosted by the American Enterprise Institute, the Brookings Institution, the Campaign Legal Center and the Reform Institute Continental breakfast buffet 9 AM: Introduction by Tom Mann, Norman Ornstein and Tony Corrado 9:30 AM: Panel I: Campaign Finance Developments in the 2004 Election Panelists include: Norman Ornstein, American Enterprise Institute; Tony Corrado, Colby College; and David Magleby, Brigham Young University. Tom Mann of the Brookings Institution to moderate. 10:30 AM: Panel II: Presidential Public Funding and the 2004 Election Panelists include: Michael Malbin, Campaign Finance Institute; Commissioner Michael Toner, The Federal Election Commission; Mike Petro, The Committee on Economic Development; and Joan Claybrook, Public Citizen. Don Simon, counsel to Democracy 21, to moderate. 11:15 AM: Panel III: The Reform Agenda for the Next Congress Panelists include: Fred Wertheimer, Democracy 21; Larry Noble, Center for Responsive Politics; Charles Kolb, Committee on Economic Development and Frances Hill, University of Miami School of Law. Trevor Potter of the Campaign Legal Center to moderate. *All panelists have been invited but not all have confirmed participation. A final agenda will be available closer to the event. Please contact Shannon Robertson, srobertson@campaignlegalcenter.org, for additional information.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:06 AM
Iowa Attorney General Opinion on Check the Box QuestionYou can find it here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:05 AM
Sixth Circuit Schedule for Ohio Provisional Balloting AppealYou can find the details here. This promises to be a very important case, probably the most important one so far, in the pre-/post-election litigation.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:16 AM
"State Election Funding in Jeopardy"The Sacramento Bee offers this report, which begins: "California is in danger of losing $169 million in federal money earmarked for new voting machines and other election system upgrades because of concerns arising from Secretary of State Kevin Shelley's previous handling of federal funds." The problems in California have gotten so bad that the Bee has set up this page devoted to Kevin Shelley controversies.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:59 AM
The Borda Count, Arrow's Theorem, and Proposition 62See this oped in today's Los Angeles Times.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:19 AM
"Tort Reform Group Ordered to Pull Ad"See This St. Louis Post-Dispatch article, which begins: "In what may be the first test of a new Illinois campaign finance law, a judge has ordered a tort reform group to pull a radio ad about the Illinois Supreme Court race." Thanks to Robbin Stewart for the pointer. He has more on this over at his "soapbox" blog.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:10 AM
Amicus Brief in Rodriguez v. PatakiI have uploaded this amicus brief sent along by Jeff Wice in the New York redistricting case. He writes: "The brief supports appellants position and asks the Court to note probable jurisdiction. The Federal District Court for NY's Southern District held the opposite of the Georgia District Court in Cox v. Larios on the 10% rule. We are hopeful that the Court will take the case and clarify this standard before the next round of redistricting."
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:07 AM
"Attorney General Says Not Checking Box Shouldn't Cancel Vote"The Sioux City Journal offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 06:23 AM
Roll Call is Reporting...Hill Wades into Voter Suppression, which begins: "Earlier this month, Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Md.) offered the Voter Protection Act of 2004. But for Cummings, the measure’s slim chance of passage this year is beside the point." DCCC, NRCC Now Nearly Even in Cash on Hand Justice Mostly on Track with Voter Access, GAO Reports HAVA Dispute, which begins: "The Election Assistance Commission reprimanded Ohio Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell in a letter this week, cautioning the Republican to 'refrain from characterizing' an EAC resolution on the use of provisional ballots as a defense of some controversial actions he has taken. " Norm Ornstein's commentary, "Want a Scary Scenario for Presidential Chaos? Here Are a Few." Paid subscription required to access these articles.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 06:22 AM
"Bush's Side Entered October with $108 Million, Kerry's With $79 Million"The New York Times offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 06:17 AM
"Electoral 'Fixes'" and "Voters' Obligations"In today's Washington Post, David Broder opines on the electoral college, while George Will writes about punch cards and claims of voter disenfranchisement.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 06:14 AM
"Charges, Countercharges Exchanged Over Fraudulent Voting"Don't miss this Washington Post report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 06:11 AM
"Courting Confusion"Charles Fried offers this oped in the New York Times which discusses, among other matters, the Supreme Court's campaign finance jurisprudence.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 06:08 AM
"The Redistricting Rematch"The Austin Chronicle offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 06:06 AM
October 20, 2004District Court Rejects Ohio Secretary of State's Position on Provisional Balloting, AgainThe district court's new order is here. Dan Tokaji has the details here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 04:18 PM
"Taking Back the Vote"Phil Kiesling and Sam Reed offer this New York Times oped, which begins: "With voters and the press fixated on the fiercest presidential race in decades, scant attention has been paid to a political revolution erupting on the West Coast - one that Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger of California gave his support to this week. On Nov. 2, voters in Washington State and California are expected to approve initiatives to abolish the political party primary as we know it. Voters in Oregon may well pass a similar measure by 2006."
Posted by Rick Hasen at 02:17 PM
"Pentagon to Place U.S. Ballot on Internet for Overseas Voters"The New York Times offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 12:39 PM
"Legal Wars Stirring Over Election 2004"The Christian Science Monitor offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 11:59 AM
Felon Voting Cases Listed for Supreme Court conference Nov. 5The Supreme Court has rescheduled Locke v. Farrakhan for conference
Posted by Rick Hasen at 11:45 AM
"Voting on the Electoral College"The Christian Science Monitor offers this editorial.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 06:59 AM
"Judge Rejects White House on Counting of Ballots"A.P. offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 05:52 AM
"Election Possibilities Stirring Outrage"Paul Campos offers these thoughts for Howard News Service.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 05:51 AM
"Large Donors Fueling Ad Blitz"The Sacramento Bee offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 05:49 AM
"Parties to Post Lawyers at Polls"The Washington Post offers this news from Virginia.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 05:48 AM
"Kerry Aims to Avoid Gore Recount Mistakes"A.P. offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 05:46 AM
"Interest Groups Mount Costly Push to Get Out Vote"The New York Times offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 05:44 AM
On Day to DayI should be on NPR's Day to Day today, talking about my recent Slate piece on potential post-election litigation. Yesterday's program featured Politicizing the Process of Registering Voters.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 05:43 AM
October 19, 2004"Play by the Rules, Colorado"Joshua Spivak offers this oped in USA Today.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:46 PM
"Judge, Clarifying Decision, Says Spending Rules Stand"The New York Times offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:45 PM
"Legal Battle for Presidency Underway"The Washington Post offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:44 PM
"GOP Justice Key to Dems' Remap Hopes; Kennedy Could Provide Swing Vote in Texas Redistricting Case"The Dallas Morning News offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 06:07 PM
"Political Scientists in McConnell v. FEC"The new issue of PS: Political Science & Politics features this mini-symposium. The introduction by Jonathan Krasno is here. The papers are listed here but not on line.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 05:36 PM
"Texas Races Come Down to Mean vs. Meaner"The Hill offers this report. I've been debating with some other election law folks the extent to which there is a social consensus against partisan gerrymandering. Relevant to that debate is this snippet from the article: " A recent Dallas Morning News poll found that 39 percent of respondents in the 32nd District thought the new boundaries are 'mostly unfair,' while 36 percent said they are 'mostly fair.'"
Posted by Rick Hasen at 04:59 PM
"Lawsuits Loom Over New Mexico Outcome; State Republicans Fear Illegal Votes will Taint Election"The Hill offers this report, which begins: "Unless the presidential election is a blowout, the Land of Enchantment will see lawsuits challenging the outcome, a key Republican state party official predicts." This is the most unequivocal commitment to post-election litigation that I have seen so far. Let's hope the electoral college vote has more than a 5-vote spread.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 04:53 PM
Gerrymandered Polling Places in Pennsylvania?See this report in the Philadelphia Daily News.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 03:28 PM
"Cowboys Gear Won't Fly at Polls"The Dallas Morning News offers this report. Thanks to a reader for passing this along. The reader wonders how this can be constitutional under the First Amendment. In Burson v. Freeman, the Supreme Court upheld a ban on electioneering activities within 100 feet of the polling place. The case was one of those unusual cases where the Court applied strict scrutiny (because of the First Amendment in this case) and the government still won.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 03:05 PM
"Judge Won't Stay Campaign Finance Ruling"A.P. offers this report. The Court's order is here. A snippet:
The point about the rules remaining on the books is quite important, as there has been some debate about what rules operate until the new FEC lawmaking.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 02:54 PM
You need a scorecard to keep up with all this litigationFortunately, Election Law at Moritz has created this one.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 02:52 PM
Provisional Ballots Meet Amendment 36The double nightmare scenario.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 02:48 PM
Michigan HAVA Voting CaseA federal district court in Michigan has ruled that votes cast in the wrong precinct by voters will need to be counted. It also upheld Michigan's voter identification requirements. Unfortunately, the scanned pdf file is too large for me to post. Dan Tokaji has more details here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 02:44 PM
"Justice Dept. Intervenes in Vote Dispute"The Washington Post offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:54 AM
Electionline.org to Issue Big Report TodayHere is the media advisory. The report should be available later today here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:35 AM
Bauer on the "Curious Request" to FEC on Recount RulesThose of you who follow the FEC should not miss this post.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:33 AM
"Fix Plan B"Roll Call offers this editorial, which begins:
Under the Constitution, a presidential election in which no candidate receives a majority of the Electoral College vote is thrown into the House of Representatives. There, each of the newly elected state delegations casts a single vote for president, with a 26-state majority required to win. At the same time, a majority of the Senate chooses the vice president. Even without getting into the system’s more bizarre permutations — delays that could force the Speaker or the President Pro Tem to be named acting president, or a partisan walkout that deprives the majority of a quorum to act — the current design is rife with problems that could become reality this year.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:31 AM
"Support Wanes for Colo. Initiative to Split Electors"The Hill offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:29 AM
October 18, 2004"New Jersey Lawsuit Challenges Electronic Voting"The New York Times offers this report. Thanks to Doug Greene for the pointer.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:49 PM
Texas Re-redistricting roundupSee reports in The New York Times; The Wall Street Journal; The Washington Post; Los Angeles Times. Howard Bashman has collected links to more stories, including many from Texas newspapers, here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:47 PM
"Governor Endorses Open Primary Measure"The Los Angeles Times offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:35 PM
Law and Democracy: A Symposium on the Law Governing our Democratic ProcessThe George Washington Law Review invites you to attend: Law and Democracy: A Symposium on the Law Governing our Democratic Process Date: Monday, November 15, 2004 Location: The Library of Congress, First Street and Independence Avenue, S.E., Washington, D.C. Just two weeks after the 2004 elections, the country’s leading election law and political science scholars will gather for a frank and insightful discussion on the state and development of the law governing our democratic process. The George Washington Law Review invites you to join us for what promises to be an exciting and memorable day. For more information, or to register for the symposium, please contact James Cobb, the Senior Projects Editor of The George Washington Law Review, at jcobb05@law.gwu.edu. Schedule of Events (subject to change): 8:15 a.m. Welcoming Address 8:30 a.m. Panel I: Partisan Redistricting and Veith v. Jubelirer 10:30 a.m. Panel II: Campaign Finance 12:30 p.m. Luncheon and Roundtable Discussion: How the Rules Shaped the 2004 Election 3:00 p.m. Panel III: Voting Rights and Barriers to Voting
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:31 PM
Symposium: Electoral Districting and the Supreme CourtThe Cornell Journal of Law and Public Policy is putting together the following symposium: Date: Saturday, October 23, 2004 Place: Room G85, Myron Taylor Hall, Cornell Law School Agenda: 10:00 a.m. Looking on the Bright Side of Partisan Gerrymandering 11:30 a.m. Vieth v. Jubelirer 1:00 p.m. Keynote Address (Berger Atrium): Contested Politics/Uncontested Elections, Samuel Issacharoff, Harold R. Medina Professor in Procedural Jurisprudence, Columbia Law School 2:30 p.m. Redistricting, Review, and Retrenchment Kathryn Abrams, Herma Hill Kay Distinguished Professor of Law, Boalt Hall, University of California, Berkeley, School of Law Richard Briffault, Joseph P. Chamberlain Professor of Legislation, Columbia Law School Guy-Uriel Charles, Visiting Associate Professor of Law, University of Minnesota Heather K. Gerken, Assistant Professor of Law, Harvard Law School Michael Kang, Emory School of Law Daniel Hays Lowenstein, Professor of Law, University of California, Los Angeles, School of Law Trevor W. Morrison, Assistant Professor of Law, Cornell Law School For further information, contact Molly Banzuly , Symposium Editor, emb27@cornell.edu.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:30 PM
"Republicans Assail Lawyer's Election Work for State"A.P. offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 05:07 PM
Glassman on Electoral College TieJohn McCain as spoiler? See here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 02:12 PM
"We May HAVA Problem"See John Fund's column in the Wall Street Journal.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 01:36 PM
Florida and Colorado Provisional Balloting DecisionsYou can find the Florida decision here and the Colorado decision here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 12:24 PM
Others' Thoughts on the Texas DecisionLyle Dennison is here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 11:43 AM
"Florida 2000: The Sequel; Five Ways the Election Could End Up in Court, Again"I have written this Jurisprudence analysis on Slate. I'll also be speaking on Public Radio International's To The Point today about "counting votes."
Posted by Rick Hasen at 11:20 AM
Another Ohio LawsuitDan Tokaji has the details here. A snippet: "The Lucas County Democratic Party and Ohio Democratic Party have filed a new federal lawsuit, challenging Secretary of State Ken Blackwell's memorandum requiring the rejection of certain voter registration forms. The case surrounds Blackwell's order that counties not accept registration forms delivered in person, unless "Box 10" is filled in. Box 10 requires voters to fill in either the last four digits of their SSN, or their Drivers' License number." I have posted the complaint here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 10:50 AM
"Kevin Shelley's Mess"The Los Angeles Times offers this editorial.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:41 AM
"Allegations of Electoral Crimes"The New York Times offers this editorial.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:39 AM
Breaking News: Supreme Court Remands Texas Re-Redistricting Case in Light of ViethA.P. offers this early report. The Texas case was remanded to the three judge court to reconsider in light of the Supreme Court's partisan gerrymandering decision in April, Vieth v. Jubelirer. I had predicted that the Court would summarily affirm the Texas case (unless the Court saw a Voting Rights Act problem), with dissents from the dissenters in Vieth. I based this prediction on the fact that four of the Justices in the plurality indicated in Vieth that partisan gerrymandering claims should be considered non-justiciable, and they pointed to the Texas re-redistricting in their opinion. Justice Kennedy was fully aware of the Texas re-redistricting case when he concurred, agreeing with the four dissenters that these cases were justiciable, but agreeing with the plurality that no one has yet found a way to separate out permissible from impermissible consideration of party identification of voters in redistricting. This decision today is a punt by the Supreme Court, perhaps a prudential move in light of the upcoming presidential election. Most likely it reflects Justice Kennedy's continued internal conflict on the question of how to resolve these cases. What is the lower court to do? The lower court Justices already pleaded with the Justices the first time around to come up with a workable partisan gerrymandering standard. Vieth has given them nothing really to work with. It will be up to plaintiffs to come up with a new standard on remand to meet Justice Kennedy's standards. In my forthcoming Election Law Journal article, "Looking for Standards (in All the Wrong Places): Partisan Gerrymandering Claims After Vieth," I argue that Vieth should be viewed as a placeholder decision. Likely the status quo (claims are justiciable, but no standard to use to judge partisan gerrymandering claims) will continue until we have a change in Court personnel, or until Justice Kennedy decides to finally commit in one direction or another. In the meantime, the Texas races go forward under the re-redistricted lines. The New York Times today discusses those races, and at the very least, the lower court will have the benefit of this election to see precisely what the effect of the re-redisticting has been.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:40 AM
October 17, 2004"After Late Start, Republican Groups Jump into Lead"The Washington Post offers this report, with the following subhead: "Since August, 527s Raised Six Times as Much as Democrats."
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:16 PM
"Risks Seen for TV Chain Showing Film About Kerry"The New York Times offers this report. The company is Sinclair, but the risks are not of campaign finance violations.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:10 PM
"As Election Nears, Parties Begin Another Round of Legal Battles"The New York Times offers this front-page report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:08 PM
Election law lecture"EVERYTHING ABOUT VOTING AND THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE YOU WISH YOU DIDN'T HAVE TO ASK"*
Posted by Rick Hasen at 03:52 PM
"This Office Should Be Spotless; Scandal Has Tarnished Secretary of State"Tony Quinn offers this commentary in the Los Angeles Times.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 01:20 PM
Washington Post Reports on Vanity Fair's Bush v. Gore articleSee here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 01:18 PM
Conflict Between Instant Runoff Voting and Campaign Finance Law?See this New York Times report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 01:15 PM
"Legal Eagles Will Eye Voting; 'Armies of Voters' Tapped"The Denver Post offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 01:14 PM
"Election to Be Scrutinized for Irregularities"The Los Angeles Times offers this front-page report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 01:12 PM
Still More Ohio LitigationNed Foley has the details here on how Ohio will enforce an identification requirement under HAVA.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 01:10 PM
"Our Electors, Ourselves"Christopher Caldwell offers this opinion piece on the electoral college in the NY Times Magazine. Thanks to Doug Greene for the pointer.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 01:09 PM
Update on Michigan Provisional Ballot LitigationSee here. Thanks to Fred Huette for the pointer.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 01:07 PM
"Super Rich Step Into Political Vacuum; McCain-Feingold Paved Way for 527s"The Washington Post offers this extensive and fascinating report. Thanks to Steven Sholk for the pointer.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 01:05 PM
Election Law Conference Announcement"ELECTION LAW, VOTING RIGHTS, AND THE 2004 ELECTION" Friday, October 22, 2004 at the University of Miami SCHEDULE 1:15-2:45 p.m. "VOTER (DIS)ENFRANCHISEMENT: ISSUES FOR THE 2004 ELECTION" 3:00-4:30 p.m. "COUNTING EVERY VOTE: VOTING TECHNOLOGY AND THE LAW" 4:45-6:00 p.m. "FLORIDA ELECTION LAW: AVOIDING THE GHOSTS OF 2000" Panels moderated by U.S. Circuit Judge Rosemary Barkett and U.S. District Judge Adalberto Jordan.
RSVP to SouthFlorida@ACSLaw.org. This event is free and open to the public.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 01:03 PM
October 16, 2004"GOP Sues for Election Judge Data"The St. Paul Pioneer Press offers this report, which begins: "The Minnesota Republican Party on Friday asked the state Supreme Court to force local election officials across the state to identify the party affiliation of their election judges."
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:54 AM
"Imagining the Danger of 2000 Redux"Tomorrow's NY Times Week in Review will feature this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:52 AM
"'527' Groups Still at Work Raising Millions for Ads"The New York Times offers this report. See also this Washington Post report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:49 AM
"Kerry Team Demands Equal Time"See this Washington Post report, the latest in the Sinclair controversy.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:48 AM
"Bush Lawyer Anticipates Delay in Tally"The Washington Post offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:46 AM
Who is Jason Napolitano, and Why is He Challenging Colorado's Amendment 36?See here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:45 AM
October 15, 2004Florida issues New Rule on Touch screen voting manual recountsSee here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 05:32 PM
"Have Scary Election Scenarios Increased?"A.P. offers this report, which mentions a forthcoming article on elections and terrorism by John Fortier and Norm Ornstein in the Election Law Journal.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 03:02 PM
Seventh Circuit: No Constitutional Right to An Absentee BallotSee here, another very interesting election law opinion by Judge Posner.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 03:00 PM
More on Amendment 36 litigationThe Denver Post offers this report, which indicates that the case has been assigned to Federal district court judge Lewis Babcock, who set a briefing schedule for some initial papers and set a hearing for October 26. I have posted plaintiff's memorandum of law, complaint, and preliminary injunction motion. The case is Napolitano v. Davidson. Colorado has some other election law troubles. See here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 01:37 PM
More on Extra Ballots in MilwaukeeA.P. offers this report. Ned Foley weighs in here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 01:21 PM
Primary Backlash Fuels Drive for I-872"The Seattle Times offers this report, which begins: "Sponsors of Initiative 872, which would transform the state's primary into a "top-two" contest, couldn't have paid for all the publicity they got last month when the state held what may have been its last party primary."
Posted by Rick Hasen at 01:07 PM
"Election Officials Fight for Net Political Ads"CNET News offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:31 AM
"Nader Emerging as the Threat Democrats Feared"The New York Times offers this report, which sees Nader as a threat to Kerry in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Wisconsin.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:27 AM
My Final Post in the Campaign Finance Debate with Bob Bauer is Now UpSee here. I hope that Bob and I have moved the ball forward a bit on what is at stake and where the disagreements are.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:25 AM
"Voting Rights Machinery Doubted, Report Says"The Washington Post offers this report. Thanks to Steven Sholk for the pointer.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:24 AM
"A Comparison of the Missouri and Ohio Provisional Voting Decisions"Ned Foley offers this analysis, which differs somewhat from Sam Hirsch's analysis. See also this New York Times report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:22 AM
Chances of Colorado Amendment 36's Passage DimmerThe Wall Street Journal reports that Democratic senatorial candidate Salazar has come out against Amendment 36.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:21 AM
October 14, 2004Preliminary Injunction Granted in Ohio HAVA Provisional Voting CaseThis is big news, because Ohio is the mother of all battleground states, and the rules for what happens when a voter, especially a new voter, wants to cast a provisional ballot could affect the outcome in Ohio, and therefore the nation. The Ohio Secretary of State has been ordered by the district court to send a new directive to the counties that would make it much easier for voters to cast a provisional ballot that will ultimately be counted for president. The decision is here. More analysis here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 12:08 PM
More on Legal Issues Surrounding Colorado's Amendment 36Following up on Mark Scarberry's comments, Bryan Wildenthal agrees:
I (unlike Mark) personally have no doubt that a state's voters could (with I also tend to think a state's voters could, in theory (at least as far as But I agree, based on what Mark has presented, that the Colorado initiative Anyway, I kind of like the fact that Mark (who I assume supports President How about other con law profs similarly taking a stand ex ante, before Bryan Wildenthal But others are not so sure. Richard Winger notes here that this reading might be inconsistent with the Florida legislature's (aborted) attempt to choose a different slate of electors during 2000. And Dan Lowenstein notes here that it is "plausible to say that the 'choice' occurs on the day that the voters vote, and not on the effective date. After all, the choice of electors at the November 2 election is not certified until days or weeks after. That does not prevent us from saying the choice was made on November 2. So the choice how to allocate the electors to the candidates is in the same sense made when the voters vote, regardless of when the initiative becomes effective." Dan also makes a point I've been making for a while: whatever legal challenges to an election that can be brought before an election should be brought. And if they are not brought before the election, the legal challenge should be barred by the doctrine of "laches" after the election. Otherwise, people have an "option:" if the election goes the way I like, I don't raise the legal issue; if it goes the other way, I do. Apparently a suit was just filed in federal court (see here, but I don't have any details). My theory on why no suit has been filed before is as follows: Republicans are more likely than Democrats to be hurt by the Amendment, because Bush is more likely than Kerry to win in Colorado. A pre-election suit is most likely to be taken in state court rather than federal court (because of Article III case or controversy requirements in federal court), but the state Supreme Court recently sided with Democrats, rather than Republicans, on the important question of the permissibility of Colorado's re-redistricting. Republicans would prefer to litigate in federal court, especially because the Tenth Circuit is viewed as more conservative than the Colorado Supreme Court. If the Tenth Circuit, for example, held that Amendment 36 violates Article II of the U.S. Constititution, the Supreme Court would likely not get involved. But if the Colorado Supreme Court held there was no Article II violation, the Supreme Court would be put in the position of potentially deciding the outcome of two presidential elections in a row.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:12 AM
"GOP Group Accused of Illegal Ads"See this news from North Carolina.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:54 AM
"What Poll and Registration Numbers Don't Reveal"Terry Neal offers this very interesting column at Washingtonpost.com.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:42 AM
"Registering Voters: Add One, Take Two Away"The Washington Post offers this report on alleged destruction of voter registration cards in Nevada first blogged about yesterday.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:41 AM
"In '04 Florida, Lawsuits Begin Before Election"The New York Times offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:39 AM
My Thursday Installment in the Bauer-Hasen campaign finance debate is now postedSee here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:37 AM
October 13, 2004A New Line of Attack on Colorado's Amendment 36I have already written about the serious risk that Colorado's Amendment 36---which would change the allocation of Colorado's 9 electoral college votes from winner-take-all to a proportional allocation---could be held by the U.S. Supreme Court to run afoul of Article II of the Constitution because the change is being made by the people, not by the state legislature. In my Los Angeles Times oped on the topic (now available here), I indicated I was less convinced that a challenge to the retroactive nature of the amendment would be successful. I conceived of such a challenge as raising due process concerns. But Professor Mark Scarberry of Pepperdine has raised another concern in a post to a constitutional law listserv (reprinted here by permission). Scarberry writes:
The initiative would add a new section 13 to Article VII of the Colorado Constitution. Section 13 would provide for proportional division of presidential electors. The initiative states explicitly that "This section [i.e., section 13] shall be effective on and after November 3, 2004." See numbered paragraph (9) of the initiative, the text of which may be found at http://www.lawanddemocracy.org/amend36.html. (One of my students, who happens to be the proprietor of http://politics.blogs.com, surprised me by telling me that the initiative had an explicit Nov. 3 effective date, and the text bears him out.) The initiative does provide that it is intended to have retroactive effect so as to apply to the election held on November 2. But I believe it cannot have that effect. Article II, sec. 1, cl. 4 provides that "The Congress may determine the Time of chusing the Electors ... ." Congress has done so in 3 U.S.C. section 1: "The electors of President and Vice President shall be appointed, in each State, on the Tuesday next after the first Monday in November, in every fourth year succeeding every election of a President and Vice President." Thus Colorado must "chuse" its electors on November 2. Colorado will do so by vote of its people on November 2. The choice will be made under the existing "winner take all" approach, which will still be in effect on that date even if the initiative passes. The state could only choose electors after November 2 if there was a failure to choose them on November 2 (see 3 U.S.C. section 2) or if an elector position becomes vacant (see 3 U.S.C. section 4). By its terms, the new section 13 added by the initiative (if it passes) would not go into effect until November 3. The only way it could be given effect for this election would be for it to have the effect of "un-chusing" the electors that were chosen on November 2 and replacing them after that date with new electors. The federal statute, enacted pursuant to Art. II, sec. 1, cl. 4, does not permit that. Perhaps there is a feature of the Colorado Constitution providing that initiative measures cannot go into effect until the day after an election. Otherwise I don't understand why the initiative drafters would have drafted it with a November 3 effective date. But in any event, that is the effective date, and I do not see how it can be given retroactive effect without violating federal law. Am I missing something? Mark S. Scarberry I don't have time to look into this myself now, but I would like to hear from other election law scholars with their reactions, which I will post on the blog. By the way, Mickey Kaus links to this poll showing the initiative trailing in the polls. It might be, as Kaus suggests, that if Democrats think Kerry can win Colorado, they are likely to abandon the initiative. That's reason enough, by the way, that this initiative never should have been put on a presidential ballot to apply immediately, where its merits are inextricably bound with the partisan consequences in the short term.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 01:15 PM
"Nev. Move to Purge Some Dem. Voters Fails"A.P. offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 10:12 AM
"Volusia Agrees to Open Early Voting Sites"A.P. offers this report, which begins: "Volusia County said Tuesday that it will expand the number of early voting sites, less than a week after a lawsuit alleged the county would disenfranchise blacks by offering only one site - in an area where few minorities live." The NAACP's press release is here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 10:07 AM
Some comments on the Missouri provisional voting caseFollowing up on my post yesterday, attorney Sam Hirsch sent the following comments to the election law list, which I am reposting here with his permission:
First, the Missouri plaintiffs forced the state and local defendants to capitulate and count the votes of the individual plaintiffs and all other similarly situated persons. Apparently, in the wake of plaintiffs' filing their complaint, the Kansas City election authority decided to count every provisional ballot cast by an eligible voter in Kansas City in the August 2004 primary election, regardless of whether the provisional ballot was cast in the "correct" polling place or the "incorrect" one. Until the defendants agreed to count all of these votes, and to include them in the final certified election returns, the court did not lift the temporary restraining order that it had imposed on the defendants shortly after the case commenced. Second, in the future, all Missouri election officials will have to count all provisional ballots cast at the "incorrect" polling place unless they have evidence that the voter was expressly directed to his or her "correct" polling place and refused to go there (or to a central polling place). Third, because the court viewed the individual plaintiffs' claims against Missouri's provisional-ballot-counting rules as moot (because their votes had indeed been counted after the plaintiffs filed their complaint), it dealt only with plaintiffs' secondary and tertiary claims involving (a) whether voters can be directed to another polling place (without first being given the option of voting provisionally at the initial polling place), and (b) whether the affirmation signed by provisional voters should declare eligibility to vote at a specific polling place. Only those claims were clearly rejected in the court's order, since the plaintiffs' central claim was deemed to be moot. Fourth, and most important, the court made it clear that a blanket rule stating that "[p]rovisional ballots voted in the wrong polling place [i.e., any polling place other than the one assigned to the voter's residence] shall not be counted" would be "troublesome" and "illogical" and likely in "direct conflict with the federal statute [HAVA]." That point could be quite significant in the other states that are now involved in litigation over such blanket legal rules.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 10:00 AM
My Wednesday Post in the Debate with Bob Bauer at Legal Affairs is Now UpSee here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:57 AM
"Test of Fla. E-Voting Machines Postponed"A.P. offers this report, which begins: "A public test of Palm Beach County's electronic voting machines was postponed because a computer server crashed."
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:56 AM
"Pushing to Be Counted in Fla.; Groups Say that Blacks May Not Be Heard at Polls"Don't miss this Washington Post report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:54 AM
Los Angeles Times Endorses Open Primary InitiativeThe Times has endorsed Proposition 62 and come out in opposition to Proposition 60. The newspaper also endorses the idea of an initiative to end partisan districting in California. Proposition 62 has also been endorsed by the Sacramento Bee and San Jose Mercury News (See here for a listing of other newspapers endorsing 62. You can find anti-62 endorsements here.) Disclosure: I am a legal consultant for the proponents of Prop. 62.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:51 AM
Pa. election law issuseThe New York Times offers One Vote, But Five Ways to Cast It and Pa. To Give Overseas Voters More Time.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:46 AM
Bois and Olson on NPR's Fresh AirYou can find the links here. Thanks to Alec Ewald for the pointer.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:34 AM
"Voter Registrations Possibly Trashed"See this report from Nevada. Link via Josh Marshall.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:30 AM
"Sinclair and Double Standards"The Wall Street Journal offers this editorial. Thanks to Steven Sholk for the pointer.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:29 AM
October 12, 2004District Court Ruling on Missouri Provisional Polling RulesI have posted the opinion in Hawkins v. Blunt here. Key language from the opinion (which uses Bush v. Gore as precedent, by the way) is the following: "Plaintiffs’ equal protection rights are not violated by the simple requirement that before a voter will be allowed to cast a viable provisional More cases raising this important issue are on the way in a number of jurisdictions. The best way to get up to speed on this important issue is by reading Dan Tokaji's analysis here and Ned Foley's analysis of the legislative history on this issue here. UPDATE: Dan Tokaji notes the status of the other pending provisional ballot litigation here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 04:13 PM
"The Reform Reporter" Notes Albuquerque Spending Limits Case Before the Supreme CourtThose in the campaign finance reform community interested in the question of overturning Buckley to allow for greater regulation should check out The Reform Reporter put out by a pro-reform group, "The Rest of Us." The Reporter's top story is on Homans v. City of Albuquerque. A federal district court had upheld the city's spending limits law, but the Tenth Circuit reversed that determination. You can find the city's cert petition on the website of the National Voting Rights Institute (co-counsel for the city) here. I predict that the Supreme Court won't grant the petition, but it is fairly likely grant a petition in Landell v. Sorrell, 382 F.3d 91 (2d Cir. 2004) if that case is not taken en banc by the Second Circuit. There is a procedural hurdle in Sorrell, because the case is remanded to the district court, but it essentially holds that Buckley allows for spending limits in appropriate circumstances.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 03:39 PM
Two New Books on the Initiative ProcessCheck out John Matsusaka, For the Many or the Few: The Initiative, Public Policy, and American Democracy (U. Chicago Press 2004) and Daniel A Smith and Caroline J. Tolbert, Educated by Initiative: The Effects of Direct Democracy on Citizens and Political Organizations in the American States (U. Mich. Press 2004).
Posted by Rick Hasen at 03:06 PM
"Voters to See Few Big Changes After Florida"A.P. offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 01:39 PM
"Meet Delegate Tim Timken, Election Reform Case Study"The New York Observer ran this report on September 6, but I just came across it recently. It is worth reading.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:49 AM
"Vote! Why Your Ballot is Not as Meaningless as You Think"Slate offers this analysis.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:17 AM
No Ruling in Texas Redistricting or Felon Disenfranchisement Cases TodayAlthough the Supreme Court's order list is not yet posted, reliable sources tell me that the Court's orders today do not address the pending Texas re-redistricting case or the Ninth Circuit's felon disenfranchisement case.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:47 AM
"Experts Examine False Campaign Speech"See this report on the OSU forum on this issue. Chris Geidner comments on the forum here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:42 AM
"Swing State Swarm"Legal Times offers this report on lawyers lining up for potential post-election challenges.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:34 AM
More on Sinclair Broadcasting and Election LawYesterday I posted these comments, and I have received a number of angry e-mails from Democratic supporters. I can understand why the supporters are angry---it is indeed highly unusual for a broadcast station to air what is essentially a commentary against one candidate. But that doesn't make it illegal. Federal election law grants an exemption for the media to broadcast bona fide news stories and commentaries, so long as the station is not controlled or owned by a political party or candidate (this provision got Steve Forbes in trouble back in 1996, when his commentaries ran in Forbes magazine while he was running for president). It also appears that the provisions don't violate federal communications law provisions guaranteeing equal time. See this Los Angeles Times report. Now, one can argue that being unfair and unbalanced violates the public interest provisions of federal communications law. That may work as a long-run strategy, but it won't keep the documentary off the air. Nor should it. If a liberal-owned television station wished to broadcast Fahrenheit 9/11 in the next few weeks, should that be illegal? According to press reports, the DNC is planning to file a complaint with the FEC alleging that showing the ad is an illegal in-kind contribution. The media exemption I discussed earlier applies to an independent action; it does not exempt contributions. So if the Democrats could show Sinclair coordination with the Bush campaign or the RNC, there could be a basis for a complaint. But so far I have seen no evidence of coordination. So what are disaffected Democrats to do? Josh Marshall suggests a shareholder derivative suit or a boycott of Sinclair's advertisers. But running to the FEC or FCC is unlikely to affect policy.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:30 AM
"Safe Seats in House Keep True Races Rare"This L.A. Times article chronicles the effects of California's bipartisan gerrymander on the lack of competitive house elections.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:15 AM
Would Democrats Act Irrationally in supporting Colorado's Amendment 36?See Mickey Kaus here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:13 AM
My Tuesday Entry in the Debate with Bob Bauer is Now PostedSee here. It includes some interesting figures on post-BRCA fundraising that I learned from David Magleby's excellent presentation at the USC conference on Election 2004 held on Friday.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:11 AM
October 11, 2004"Has Campaign Finance Reform Failed? Richard Hasen and Robert Bauer Debate"Bob Bauer and I have begun this debate at the Legal Affairs website. We will each post five entries throughtout this week. Bob's first entry will appear by this evening.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:19 AM
Another Oped on Colorado Amendment 36 ProblemFrank Davies offers this commentary in the Miami Herald.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:09 AM
"Backup Voting System Could Cause Problems"A.P. offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:07 AM
"Among Black Voters, A Fervor to Make their Votes Count"The New York Times offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 06:39 AM
Sinclair Broadcasting to Show Anti-Kerry DocumentaryFollowing up on this front-page report in Saturday's Los Angeles Times, the Washington Post has run this report and the New York Times has run this report. It is certainly unusual for a broadcast station to run what amounts to a long commentary against a candidate for federal office. (I give some statistics in my "Rupert Murdoch" article on how rare it is for broadcast stations to endorse candidates for office). But---from the point of view of federal election law (as opposed to, say, federal communications law---this is really no different from the New York Times endorsing a candidate for president (or running an oped supporting or opposing such a candidate).
Posted by Rick Hasen at 06:37 AM
Hayden on Majority-Minority DistrictsGrant Hayden has posted a Findlaw commentary, Majority-Minority Voting Districts and Their Role in Politics: Their Advantages, Their Drawbacks, and the Current Law. Thanks to Roy Ulrich for the pointer.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 06:30 AM
"Behind the Scenes, Officials Wrestle Over Voting Rules"The Washington Post offers this report. Thanks to Steven Sholk for the pointer.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 06:28 AM
Waterstone on Lane and Voting RightsMichael Waterstone has posted Lane, Fundamental Rights, and Voting (forthcoming Alabama Law Review) on SSRN. Here is the abstract:
This Article applies this view of Lane to a future category of ADA Title II fundamental rights litigation - cases involving the right to vote for people with disabilities. Although earlier new federalism cases would compel a different conclusion, after Lane, Courts should hold that the ADA validly abrogates the States' sovereign immunity in Title II voting cases. This has implications for the whole range of Section 5 legislation. Finally, the disability rights community has criticized Lane for providing insufficient clarity for future Title II cases. This application of Lane to voting responds to that criticism, showing how the presumption in fundamental rights cases is sufficiently strong as to discourage needless litigation. Michael is doing some very interesting work at the intersection of disability law and voting rights. I look forward to reading this paper.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 06:27 AM
Two by GerkenHeather Gerken has put two articles on SSRN. I have read the first, Lost in the Political Thicket: The Court, Election Law, and the Doctrinal Interregnum (forthcoming in the University of Pennsylvania Law Review). Among other things, the article does a very good job clarifying and moving the debate forward between rights-based election law scholars and structuralists. Here is the abstract:
This essay thus argues that we are witnessing a doctrinal interregnum in election law. It charts the course the Court has taken thus far, exploring the connections between the Court's three most recent election law decisions and its prior jurisprudence. It argues that, despite their many differences, each case reveals the dilemma the Court now faces in resolving what are fundamentally structural claims with an individual-rights framework. Part II speculates on the next steps the Court will take. In doing so, it attempts to sharpen the terminology deployed in the "rights-structure" debate thus far and suggests a novel reading of Georgia v. Ashcroft, the Supreme Court's most recent race and redistricting case, as a bridge between the Court's prior strategy for adjudicating vote-dilution claims - policing substantive outcomes - and a more process-oriented approach that deploys a variant of the minority veto. The essay closes by reflecting on how courts might use their regulatory powers to create incentives for other institutional actors to work to improve the structural health of our democracy. The second paper, which I have not yet read, is Second-Order Diversity and Disaggregated Democracy (forthcoming Harvard Law Review). Here is the abstract:
The problem with this debate is that its participants often unthinkingly extend theories about diversity derived from unitary institutions to disaggregated ones - institutions where the governance system is divided into a number of equal subparts (juries, electoral districts, appellate panels, schools committees, and the like). Thus, despite their prevalence, scholars have not systematically considered how to tailor our normative commitment to diversity to the unique features of these disaggregated institutions. This Article is a first step toward providing a conceptual framework for describing a recurring set of trade-offs we face when designing disaggregated institutions. Specifically, the paper claims that there at least two types of diversity - first order and second order. The idea I term first-order diversity fits the conventional understanding; it is the normative vision associated with statistical integration, the hope that democratic bodies will someday mirror the polity. The notion of second-order diversity, proposed here, posits that democracy sometimes benefits from having decisionmaking bodies that do not mirror the underlying population but instead encompass a wide range of compositions. Second-order diversity seeks variation among decisionmaking bodies, not within them. It favors interorganizational diversity, not intraorganizational diversity. It fosters diversity without mandating uniformity. The notions of first-order and second-order diversity provide a framing device that allows us to connect and synthesize the insights offered by a broad array of legal scholarship in assessing the costs and benefits of each approach. This framework thus allows us to play a divergent set of literatures against one another, to find new grounds of criticism and as-yet unexplored sources of connection among them. And it helps put some meat on the bones of a number of undertheorized design practices, identifying values attached to those practices that scholars have thus far neglected.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 06:22 AM
Missouri Lawsuit on Voting Rights of Those Under Guardianship for Mental IllnessSee this press release. Thanks to Grant Davis-Denny for the pointer.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 06:17 AM
"Libertarians Win Hearing in Debate Case"The New York Sun offers this report, which begins: "The third and final debate between President Bush and Senator Kerry has been thrown into doubt after a state judge in Arizona ordered a hearing on whether the event, scheduled for Wednesday, should be halted because the Libertarian Party's nominee for president has not been invited." You can find the LP's complaint here (thanks to Doug Greene for this pointer).
Posted by Rick Hasen at 06:15 AM
October 08, 2004"Election Spoiler May Turn Out to Be a Libertarian"The New York Sun offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:27 AM
"Colorado's Electoral Fix Could Bolster House, Not American Voters"Josh Spivak offers this Roll Call oped (paid subscription required). A snippet: "If this system is instituted on the national level, because of third-party candidates such as Ross Perot or Ralph Nader, elections would not be decided by the Electoral College but could instead be thrown into the House of Representatives."
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:23 AM
More Florida pre-Election LawsuitsSee here and here. For those who might find there to be too much pre-election litigation, ask yourself whether such litigation is better disposed of before the election or after the election, when everyone knows the partisan consequences of a judicial decision.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:19 AM
October 07, 2004"Election 2004: Can We Avoid Déjà Vu All Over Again?"The ACS Los Angeles Lawyer Chapter presents: "Election 2004: Can We Avoid Déjà Vu All Over Again?" Tuesday, October 19, 2004 from 7:00 - 9:00 p.m. Co-sponsored with the Los Angeles County Bar Individual Rights Section Featuring: Richard Hasen, Steve Kaufman, Tuesday, October 19, 2004 from 7:00 - 9:00 p.m. A reception will follow the event. To RSVP, e-mail LosAngeles@acslaw.org by October 18, 2004.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:47 PM
More Nader Ballot Problems in Pa.See this New York Times report. Thanks to Doug Greene for the pointer.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:44 PM
League of Women Voters Joins Ohio Suit Against Ohio's Provisional Voting RulesSee this press release.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:41 PM
"Preelection Legal Challenges Abound"The Palm Beach Post offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:31 PM
"As Election Day Nears, Counting the Votes Faces New Pitfalls"Don't miss this important article in the Wall Street Journal. Thanks to Steven Sholk fo the link.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:23 PM
Was Michael Moore Illegally Paying for Turnout?See this article in Slate. I've written a fair bit about this topic, most extensively in my article, Vote Buying, 88 California Law Review 1323 (2000), and the Slate piece has it about right. The only thing I would add is that it is not clear that giving away Ramen and underwear in exchange for a promise to vote later really is paying for turnout rather than just an unenforceable promise and publicity stunt. The more typical payment for turnout arrangements (as in California, where it is legal when there are no federal candidates on the ballot) require that the voter show a voting stub and then gets something---a free car wash, a chicken dinner, etc. Democrats have targeted these in Democratic areas as a way to get out the vote. (All of this is detailed in my article.) The Moore situation looks different, and I think would hardly be grounds for a prosecution. I recall that during the 2000 election, my local car wash (which has a civic-minded owner) offered free car washes to those who showed a voting stub. I called the car wash to give the owner a heads-up. The manager thought I was threatening to turn him in for breaking the law and hung up on me, proving that no good deed goes unpunished.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:21 PM
October 05, 2004"FEC Wants Campaign Finance Decision Stayed"A.P. offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:57 AM
"Financial Data on 527s"Taxprof blog offers this post with many helpful links.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:56 AM
Texas Redistricting Case Listed for Oct. 8 ConferenceSee here. There is no notation yet that the Ninth Circuit's felon disenfranchisement case has been relisted.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 08:55 AM
October 04, 2004"Colorado Initiative May Cause Election Strife"A.P. offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 02:59 PM
"Students Switching to Vote in Ohio"The Columbus Dispatch offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 11:22 AM
Michigan Ballots Don't Allow Vote for BushSee this ballot (shades of the butterfly ballot, but worse!). Richard Winger reports here that the ballots are being reprinted and remailed.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 10:59 AM
Today's Supreme Court election law newsAlthough I have not seen a copy of today's order list yet [update: the order list is here), I am reliably informed that there was no decision whether to set the Texas re-redistricting case and there was no decision in the Ninth Circuit felon disenfranchisement case, Farrakhan v. Locke. Meanwhile, AP reports here that the Court refused to consider the Ninth Circuit's decision in Montana Right to Life v. Eddleman, upholding Montana's contribution limits for candidates and political committees.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:41 AM
Electronic Voting ForumI have received the following announcement:
THURSDAY OCTOBER 7 E-VOTING: PROBLEMS EXPECTED IN THE NOVEMBER ELECTION? DAVID L. DILL, Ph.D., Founder and Board Director, VerifiedVoting.org Heard some disturbing stories about electronic voting machines and the companies that make them? A significant portion of the electorate will vote electronically using ATM-like voting machines in November. The viability of the systems is still in question - a number of incidents have eroded confidence that the systems can ensure every vote is counted fairly. Could this year's Presidential election have balloting snafus like those in Florida in 2000? Find out from the experts. 6:30 p.m., Program | 7:30 p.m., Wine & Hors d'oeuvres Reception | Club Office, 595 Market St, 2nd floor, San Francisco | $12 for Members, $20 for Non-members, $7 for Students. For reservations call 415/597-6705 or register online here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 07:04 AM
"Stealthy Groups Keep Donors Secret as they Push Political Agendas"Cox News Service offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 06:18 AM
"Campaigns Spending Little on Web Ads"The Washington Post offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 06:14 AM
"More Troubles for Diebold"The New York Times offers this editorial.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 06:13 AM
October 03, 2004"As Deadlines Hit, Rolls of Voters Show Big Surge"The New York Times offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 10:18 PM
"Prop. 62 Puts Party Line on the Line"The Sacramento Bee offers this report. [Disclosure: I am a lawyer for the proponents of Prop. 62.]
Posted by Rick Hasen at 10:14 PM
"Enduring Anachronism: Electoral College Distorts System"The Sacramento Bee offers this editorial.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 10:04 PM
"Tax Rules Boost Interest Groups"The Atlanta Journal-Constitution offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:56 PM
"In Florida, An Early Skirmish Over '04 Vote"The Wall Street Journal offers this report. Thanks to Steven Sholk for the link.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:54 PM
"Major Parties Already Honing Recount Strategy"The Los Angeles Times offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:52 PM
October 02, 2004"Registrars Assail Shelley's Handling of Voter Funds"The Sacramento Bee offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 05:44 PM
Two New York Times Articles on Election Administration IssuesSee Democrats Voice Concern About Overseas Vote and Voter Registrations Hit Snag Over Citizenship Box.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 05:39 PM
October 01, 2004Tokaji on Electronic Voting and Democratic ValuesDan Tokaji has posted The Paperless Chase: Electronic Voting and Democratic Values on SSRN. Here is the abstract:
Posted by Rick Hasen at 02:30 PM
Brennan Center Sues to Require Same Day Voter Registration in ConnecticutSee this press release. This lawsuit is brought very close to election day. It is not clear from the press release whether this is intended to apply to the upcoming election. If it is, it would not surprise me to see a court refuse to consider it given that this suit could have been broughter earlier.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 02:26 PM
More Nader Ballot Access News Out of Arkansas and WisconsinRichard Winger has the details here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:19 AM
Did Kerry-Edwards Coordinate with a 527 Through the Pennsylvania Governor?That's the allegation made here.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:15 AM
"Issue Raised at FEC About Paying for Recounts"The New York Times offers .
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:09 AM
"Military Voter Education Underway"The Washington Post offers this report.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:08 AM
More on Oho Election WoesSee this report in The Other Paper. Link via Daily Kos.
Posted by Rick Hasen at 09:05 AM
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