August 03, 2010

Did Voter Confusion Make the Prop. 8 Vote Closer That It Should Have Been Had Voters Voted Consistent with Their Preferences?

David Fleisher, in this LA Times oped on a this new report about exit polling about Prop. 8:

    It's true that the official election results -- 52% to 48% -- appeared quite close. But the truth is more complicated. The data we analyzed show that the No on 8 campaign benefitted from voter confusion.

    Polling suggests that half a million people who opposed same-sex marriage mistakenly voted against the proposition. They were confused by the idea that a "no" vote was actually a vote for gay marriage. This "wrong-way voting" affected both sides, but overwhelmingly it helped the "no" side. Our analysis suggests that the division among California voters on same-sex marriage at the time of Proposition 8 was actually 54% to 46% -- not so close. We are actually 1 million votes away from being able to reverse Proposition 8.

More in the report on pages 104-106.

Posted by Rick Hasen at August 3, 2010 09:17 AM