Cottrell, Herron & Westwood on Trump’s Fraud Allegations

…ot uncover any evidence consistent with Trump’s assertions about widespread voter fraud. Moreover, we do not observe any striking abnormalities in two sets of states recently highlighted as potentially problematic: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (the subject of ongoing recount efforts) and California, New Hampshire, and Virginia (three states cited personally by Trump). Our results do not imply that there was no fraud at all in the 2016…

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Recount Roundup

…we know” The Hill:  “Annoyed Dems Dismiss Recount as a ‘Waste of Time’” New Yorker:  “The Recount Road to Nowhere” NPR:  “Trump Officially Wins Michigan As Possible Recount Looms” Politico:  “Clinton team shrugs off recount effort” Salon: “Jill Stein sues Wisconsin to go through with vote recount” Slate:  “Jill Stein Requests Recount in Pennsylvania but Has No…

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Marc Elias: “Listening and Responding To Calls for an Audit and Recount”

…eyond the post-election audit, Green Party candidate Jill Stein announced Friday that she will exercise her right as a candidate to pursue a recount in the state of Wisconsin. She has indicated plans to also seek recounts in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Because we had not uncovered any actionable evidence of hacking or outside attempts to alter the voting technology, we had not planned to exercise this option ourselves, but now that a recount has…

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“U.S. Officials Defend Integrity of Vote, Despite Hacking Fears”

…the results “accurately reflect the will of the American people.” The statement came as liberal opponents of Donald J. Trump, some citing fears of vote hacking, are seeking recounts in three states — Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — where his margin of victory was extremely thin. A drive by Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, for recounts in those states had brought in more than $5 million by midday on Friday, her campaign said, and…

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Stein Recount Could Endanger WI Electoral Votes in the “Safe Harbor”

…top election official said. Stein — who received just 1% of the vote in Wisconsin — has promised to file for a recount by Friday’s 5 p.m. deadline in Wisconsin. She is also planning to ask for recounts in Michigan and Pennsylvania, which have deadlines next week. A federal “safe harbor” law requires states to complete presidential recounts within 35 days of the election to ensure their electoral votes are counted. This year,…

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“Hillary Clinton Supporters Call for Vote Recount in Battleground States”

…roughly 30,000 votes behind Donald J. Trump in the key swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin — a combined gap that is narrowing. Her impassioned supporters are now urging her to challenge the results in those two states and Pennsylvania, grasping at the last straws to reverse Mr. Trump’s decisive majority in the Electoral College. In recent days, they have seized on a report by a respected computer scientist and other experts suggesting that…

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Looks Like Someone Mangled Alex Halderman’s Views to Make Case for Recount to Help Clinton

…likely than the other. The only way to know whether a cyberattack changed the result is to closely examine the available physical evidence — paper ballots and voting equipment in critical states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Unfortunately, nobody is ever going to examine that evidence unless candidates in those states act now, in the next several days, to petition for recounts. This makes a lot more sense. As I wrote in my post…

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New Claims of Electronic Vote Rigging Used to Steal Election from Clinton: What to Think?

…ing-rights attorney John Bonifaz and J. Alex Halderman, the director of the University of Michigan Center for Computer Security and Society, believes they’ve found persuasive evidence that results in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania may have been manipulated or hacked. The group is so far not speaking on the record about their findings and is focused on lobbying the Clinton team in private. Last Thursday, the activists held a conference…

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“Independent Spending Dominated the Closest Senate and House Races in 2016”

…ering all Senate races, lists the candidates’ receipts through pre-election disclosure reports alongside summary information for all independent spending through the election. The top race for spending in 2016 was the one in Pennsylvania between incumbent Sen. Patrick Toomey against Kathleen McGinty. Independent spending in that race alone topped $116 million – more than triple the amount raised by the candidates themselves. Seven other Senate…

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Democrats Blame “Voter Suppression” for Clinton Loss at Their Peril

…million votes) compared to Obama in 2012. People stayed home for reasons unrelated to voter suppression. From Philip Bump: In Michigan, Clinton got 13 percent fewer votes than Obama. Trump got 7 percent more than Romney. In Pennsylvania, Clinton got 5 percent fewer votes than Obama. Trump got 9 percent more than Romney. In Wisconsin, Clinton got 15 percent fewer votes than Obama. Trump did slightly worse than Romney — in a state that was…

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“How Gary Johnson and Jill Stein helped elect Donald Trump”

…232 for Hillary Clinton, as of Wednesday evening, with Clinton topping him in the popular vote. But had the Democrats managed to capture the bulk of third-party voters in some of the closest contests — Wisconsin (10), Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16) and Florida (29) — Clinton would have defeated Trump by earning 307 Electoral College votes, enough to secure the presidency. The entire scenario conjures up memories of Ralph…

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Did Restrictive Voter ID Laws and Other Voting Laws Matter to the Election Outcome?

…e was due to attempts to make it harder to vote, compared to other factors, such as less enthusiasm for Clinton than Obama? (After all, with no new voting restrictions, Democratic and African American turnout was way down in Pennsylvania.) Again, I will have to leave this to others to tease out. Now, on why this is the wrong question: Of course pundits and partisans care about election outcomes, but when it comes to laws making it harder to…

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Roger Stone: “we will not allow the dark forces behind Hillary’s campaign to engage in voter fraud and tampering.”

…win these efforts and secure a fair vote for ALL AMERICA. If you are signing into our system to do exit polls, please see the counties where help is especially needed below:  Ohio Cutahoga, Franklin, Hamilton, Arizona  Pima County Colorado Arapahoe, Jefferson, Larimer Texas Bexar, Harris, Jefferson Florida Broward, Hillsborough, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Palm Beach Pennsylvania Allegheny, Montgomery, Philadelphia…

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PA: The Most Important Election-Related Court Ruling Remaining Isn’t About Election Law: It’s About Transit Strikers in Philly

…enied an injunction Friday but will revisit Monday potentially issuing an injunction ordering workers back in light of the election. Getting Philadelphia voters to the polls Tuesday is key to the Democrats’ strategy in Pennsylvania, a crucial state for Clinton and for control of the Senate. Meanwhile, as the negotiations continue: In the meantime, some Philadelphia residents have started offering free rides to the disabled and the elderly….

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“Not Intimidated: A court has gotten the Trump campaign on the record promising not to intimidate voters on Election Day. That is huge.”

…case being heard on an emergency basis this week: Democrats have filed suit against Donald Trump, Republican state parties, and Trump ally Roger Stone in the battleground states of Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. In the Nevada suit, Stone has been ordered to explain at a separate Friday hearing what his questionable “Stop the Steal” organization is planning for Election Day. But regardless of how these hearings go…

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“Hundreds in Montco say they haven’t received absentee ballots”

Philly.com: Days before the Pennsylvania deadline to return completed absentee ballots, hundreds of voters in Montgomery County are complaining that they have not yet received their absentee ballots in the mail.  Democrats and Republicans have expressed concern about the issue, and the GOP filed an emergency petition last week requesting an extension of the deadline to return completed absentee ballots because “a great number” had…

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Breaking: Federal Court Rejects PA GOP Efforts to Send Poll Watchers to Different Counties to Look for Voter Fraud

Under Pennsylvania law, poll watchers must be from the same county in which they are registered to vote. Republicans failed to change that law in the legislature, and the PA Republican party filed a federal lawsuit seeking to make the change. When the suit was filed, I indicated I thought it had little chance of success. And now a federal district court has issued this 28 page opinion rejecting the challenge. Part of the reason is timing…

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“RNC Advised Against ‘Ballot Security’ Efforts By Members With State Party Roles”

…a federal courts agrees, would mean the agreement would be extended for another eight years. The Democratic National Committee went to court, arguing that, among other issues, two RNC members — one in Michigan and another in Pennsylvania — had taken specific actions violating the longstanding consent decree. On Wednesday, the RNC’s lawyers made the opposite argument of Ryder’s October advice — telling a federal judge that the RNC members from…

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RNC Denies Coordinating with Trump Campaign on “Ballot Security,” Says RNC Members Who Are Coordinating Working in Their State Party Capacities

…vement in any poll monitoring activities in any state.” Id. ¶ 15; see also id. ¶ 16. The RNC also took steps to further investigate the DNC’s mistaken allegations that the RNC has been involved in ballot security measures in Pennsylvania and Michigan. See Phillippe Decl. ¶¶ 17-22; Gleason Decl. ¶¶ 3-6; McDaniel Decl. ¶¶ 3-6. As shown in the Declaration of Pennsylvania Republican State Party Chair Rob Gleason, and as confirmed in the news article…

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Striking Philly Transit Union Uses Potential Election Chaos as Leverage

…ht days before one of the most hotly contested presidential races in recent history. “The union knows it has tremendous leverage,” said DiNome’s partner, Michael Jones, another management lawyer at Reed Smith. “To the extent Pennsylvania is in play in this election, Philadelphia is a significant Democratic voting base. There is a Democratic governor and a Democratic mayor. The union knows that the strike is not going to [last until next]…

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“Nonprofits With Secret Donors Spend Millions in Key Senate Races”

…rts filed with the Federal Election Commission. The spending included nearly $3 million in recent weeks by the Democratic-linked nonprofit Majority Forward for television and radio ads in Senate races in Missouri, Nevada and Pennsylvania. The Republican-linked nonprofit One Nation spent nearly $3.2 million on mailings in the same races, as well as those in Indiana, New Hampshire and North Carolina. The spending on “express…

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Sad News: Legislation Scholar Norman Singer has Died

…h departments, though he was proud that he never took salary or benefits from Arts and Sciences. Professor Singer had a wide-ranging international career as well. After graduating from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, he worked for a year in Stockholm. A trip through Russia and into Iran introduced him to the Middle East. He returned to the States, graduated summa cum laude from Boston University Law School, and in 1964…

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Breaking: Democrats Sue Trump, State Republican Parties, and Roger Stone for Voter Intimidation Tactics

The latest set of filings from Democrats (led by Marc Elias) against the Trump campaign, state Republican parties, and Roger Stone’s “Stop the Steal” group: Nevada Complaint Arizona Complaint Pennsylvania Complaint Ohio Complaint [corrected link] I haven’t yet gone through each complaint in detail yet, but all seem to raise two claims, one under the Voting Rights Act and one under the Ku Klux Klan Act, aimed at…

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Trump Talking Points Urge Surrogates to Push Voter Fraud Line

Jonathan Swan for The Hill: In campaign talking points sent out Wednesday and obtained by The Hill, the Trump team told Republican surrogates to cite examples of voter fraud in North Carolina, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Under a headline ‘Must make points on rigged system,’ the Trump campaign encourages surrogates to say, “We have also seen very significant recent voting irregularities across the country from Pennsylvania

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“Let’s take Rudy Giuliani’s voter-fraud theories to their natural conclusion”

…that means that we’d expect the final vote tally in the state to be 2.8 million votes for Clinton and 2.4 million votes for Trump, with a margin of 372,000 votes. Meaning that we’d need to bus 372,000 people into Pennsylvania to vote, assuming the results are rigged. This is obviously stupid already — how is Clinton only winning by “fraud” if she’s up 6 points in the polls? — but let’s keep going…

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RNC, Desperate to Try to Avoid Extension of Voter Intimidation Consent Decree, Tries to Distance from Trump

Back on August 12, I wrote: With Trump’s dangerous and irresponsible hyperventilating about voter fraud and cheating in Pennsylvania potentially costing him the election, it is probably no surprise, as reported by theWeekly Standard, that Trump is seeking “election observers” to stop “Crooked Hillary” from “rigging this election.” However, there’s a longstanding consent decree that bars the RNC from engaging in such activities…. I said…

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The Latest (Possible) Dirty Trick? Telling People to Vote Online via Text

…like there are dirty tricks going on. Snopes: The provenance of the meme was unclear. It was most likely intended merely as a joke, which one side then interpreted as a genuine attempt to suppress Democratic voter turnout in Pennsylvania, and which the other side claimed was spread as a smear against their candidate by suggesting his party would resort to such underhanded tricks. (Of course, it would be ridiculous to think that any particular…

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Is Sen. McCain Saying Republicans Will Block a Hillary Clinton Nominee for Supreme Court?

CNN: Later in the interview, McCain used the opportunity to make the case for fellow Republican Sen. Pat Toomey, who is locked in a close battle to retain his Senate seat in Pennsylvania. McCain promised that Republicans would be “united against any Supreme Court nominee” put forth by Clinton. “I promise you that we will be united against any Supreme Court nominee that Hillary Clinton, if she were president, would put…

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“Deficiencies of Proportional Division of Electoral Votes”

…oportional system. In a “one-state-one-vote” system, a win in a small state would be as rewarding as a win in a big state.  Shifting 0.37% of Utah’s popular vote (about 3,600 votes) would be as rewarding as shifting 0.23% of Pennsylvania’s popular vote (about 13,000 votes) or shifting 0.44% of Florida’s popular vote (37,000 votes).  However, it is considerably less expensive to shift 3,600 votes in Utah than to shift 13,000 or 37,000 votes. …

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“Trump Cites Bogus Story From Russian Propaganda Outlet At PA Rally”

…in-backed news outfit, that misattributed quotes to a Hillary Clinton adviser to make the case at a Monday rally that her advisors thought she could have “done something” about the Benghazi attacks. Speaking in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, Trump held an article print-out in the air and made reference to Clinton confidante Sidney Blumenthal. “He’s now admitting they could have done something about Benghazi,’’ Trump said, as quoted by Newsweek….

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“Donald Trump warns that ‘other communities’ are poised to steal the election”

…ears ago, a number of precincts around Philadelphia recorded no votes for Mitt Romney. The places where that happened were, in the words of the Philadelphia Inquirer “clustered in almost exclusively black sections of West and North Philadelphia” — places where most of the residents were members of one of President Obama’s most loyal voting constituencies. (Nonwhite voters in Pennsylvania prefer Hillary Clinton by 56 points in a…

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“Lessons From Pa.’s Judicial Retirement Age Ballot Fiasco”

…al candidates must run in partisan elections. Once an individual becomes a judge, however, to remain in office he or she must win more than 50 percent of the vote in nonpartisan retention elections every 10 years. Increasing Pennsylvania’s judicial ­retirement age is thus likely to result in fewer and less frequent partisan elections to fill open judicial seats. If the existence of partisan judicial elections in fact financially benefits…

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“Why Trump wants his supporters to monitor the polls in ‘certain areas'”

The Christian Science Monitor: But Trump appears to have encouraged crowds in rural Pennsylvania this weekend to become polling station watchdogs. But he didn’t elaborate on what they should watch for, only that they should “watch carefully, because we’re going to win the state of Pennsylvania,” according to The Washington Post. In August, Trump repeatedly said that without tougher voter ID laws like the one a federal appeals court struck down…

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Don’t Point to Voter Registration Fraud, or Absentee Ballot Fraud, to Defend Trump’s Irresponsible Vote-Rigging Claims

…shows this isn’t a problem that’s going to happen on a grand scale…. Over the weekend, Trump upped his dangerous rhetoric, suggesting that in November cheating at the polls in “certain sections of the state” would hand Pennsylvania’s electoral votes to Clinton. Never mind that Clinton is ahead in that battleground state by about 9 percentage points. Trump’s “certain sections” reference is a dog whistle to those who…

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“Here comes the Republican Senate super PAC blitz”

…GOP candidates. The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC that is part of the American Crossroads suite of GOP big-money groups, is expanding its television buys in New Hampshire, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada and Pennsylvania, officials told The Washington Post. At the same time, the group is cutting back most of its planned spending in Ohio, where incumbent Republican Sen. Rob Portman has widened his lead over former governor Ted…

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“How Democrats Stopped Worrying and Learned to Love Big Donor Money”

NYT: More than two-thirds of the Democrats’ cash went to a dozen presidential battlegrounds critical to any Clinton victory. The biggest beneficiaries were Florida, which has taken in close to $3.5 million, and Pennsylvania and Ohio, which have each received more than $2 million. In each of those states, the funds from the national party have made a difference, erasing deficits in federal contributions against the respective Republican state…

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“Big business continues trend toward political transparency”

…ing, according to a new study on corporate political transparencyby the Center for Political Accountability, a nonpartisan transparency advocacy group, and the Zicklin Center for Business Ethics Research at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. Well-known companies such as Advance Auto Parts Inc., Expedia Inc., M&T Bank Corp., Netflix Inc., Paychex Inc., Urban Outfitters Inc., United Rentals Inc. and Berkshire Hathaway,…

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“If Trump Disputes the Election, We Have No Good Way Out”

…minds that she did not. Then what happens? Consider Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state and the one I worry most about this year, since it uses electronic voting machines without paper backup. Suppose that on Election Night, Pennsylvania’s secretary of state announces that Clinton has won the state, and with it the presidency, but Trump says, “Prove it.” The secretary of state responds, “That’s what the machines tell us.” Trump responds, “Well,…

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Still Troubling: Donald Trump Says He Will Accept Outcome of Election “If She Wins”

…mportant question about accepting the results if on the losing end of the election. The question is important because of Trump’s irresponsible vote rigging claims earlier this year. He has suggested that in places like Pennsylvania, there are ‘certain areas” of the state (which I see as code word for minority urban areas) where the vote might be stolen. At first I was happy with Trump’s debate answer, until people pointed…

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“When the Electoral Map Governs Presidential Campaign Strategy”

…tate-to-state variations assume an outsize role. If Mr. Trump draws within 1.5 percentage points of Mrs. Clinton in the popular vote, according to calculations by Harry Enten at FiveThirtyEight, he would win 266 electoral votes under current patterns of support for the candidates. By tilting any of three additional battlegrounds — Colorado, New Hampshire or Pennsylvania — he would win the presidency….

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“Billboard magnate pours fortune into unusual single-handed effort for Trump”

…ing states. It is an unusual purchase and a throwback to a previous era when the wealthy had close to unfettered control over how their dollars were spent. Adams disclosed the spending this week in independent expenditure reports almost always filed by political action committees or nonprofits, rather than individuals: $150,000 in North Carolina, $200,000 in Pennsylvania and $300,000 in Michigan.  …

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“Outside groups spent nearly $100 million to sway Senate races”

…ured roughly $95.5 million through Aug. 30 into five Senate races aimed at the general election, proving that donors are deeply invested in the fight over which party controls Congress in 2017. The groups are spending big in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin. All of the races except Nevada are places where where Republican incumbents are battling well-known, popular Democrats in states that have historically tipped blue in…

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“Sixth Circuit Upholds Kentucky’s Failure to Have a Procedure for an Unqualified Party to Become a Qualified Party in Advance of Any Particular Election”

…en states that lacks any such procedure. Instead, Kentucky, and the other ten states, only have candidate petitions. A group can’t become a qualified party in Kentucky until after it puts a candidate for President on the ballot who then gets at least 2% of the vote. The other states that lack such a procedure for a group to become qualified in advance of an election are Connecticut, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania,…

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“Donald Trump, a ‘Rigged’ Election and the Politics of Race”

…must-read from Maggie Haberman and Matt Flegenheimer in the NYT: Darrell L. Clarke, Philadelphia’s City Council president, said the racial overtones of Mr. Trump’s remarks were clear. “When you talk about ‘certain areas’ in Pennsylvania, we all know what that means,” he said. “He’s talking about Philadelphia and some of the urban areas.” The Trump campaign recently started a website urging people to sign up as election watchers. All campaigns…

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