But not everyone agrees with the Brennan Center’s conclusion that gerrymandering will be a nearly insurmountable hurdle to Democrats’ chances this November to win back the House. Yes, gerrymandering is something Democrats need to overcome, but it may be one they can — and have in the not-too-distant past — overcome.
Democrats probably only need to win the popular vote by 7 percent to obtain a bare majority in the House, calculates David Wasserman, the House editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which analyzes congressional races. And while it may not seem like much of a difference, winning 7 percent of the popular vote is a more doable number than 11 percent in politics. Both parties have performed that well in wave elections.