“Some Change in Apportionment Allocations With New 2017 Census Estimates; But Greater Change Likely by 2020 “

Election Data Services:

New Census Bureau population estimates for 2017 released today shows a change of two more seats between four states from last year’s study generated by Election Data Services, Inc. on which states would gain or lose congressional seats if the current numbers were used for apportionment in 2017. But projecting these numbers to 2020, using several different methods, leads to more states being impacted by the decennial census scheduled to take place in just three years.

The Bureau’s 2017 total population estimates shows that now 12 states will be impacted by changes in their congressional delegation if these new numbers were used for apportionment today. The state of Colorado joins the previously indicated states of Florida, North Carolina, and Oregon to each gain a single seat while the state of Texas is now shown to gain a second seat with the new data. The states of New York and West Virginia joins the states of Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania to lose a seat in Congress using the new data. The new numbers, however, reflect subtle changes taking place across the nation in birth and death rates and resulting total population numbers that become magnified when the information is projected forward to coincide with the taking of the 2020 Census on April 1 that year

 

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