Sam Levine for HuffPost:
One presentation submitted to the commission around 8,500 likely duplicate votes across 21 states. Unable to access data from all 50 states, the researchers extrapolate their findings to estimate that there are at least 45,000 instances of double voting across the country, a number still considerably short of the three to five million people Trump has alleged voted illegally last year. Those conducting the analysis compared voters’ first names, last names, dates of birth and the first five digits of their social security numbers, but other studies have also shown it’s extremely easy to get false positives when comparing voter data.
Michael McDonald, a professor at the University of Florida, is leading an effort to replicate and verify that study. He cautioned not to jump to any conclusions and that many instances in the report that appear to be double voting could in fact turn out to be administrative errors.
“These are all allegations at this point, none of this has been substantiated by election officials or law enforcement doing additional follow up,” he said in an interview. “The allegations are one thing, but then when you actually start investigating, you find something different. We have to be clear to distinguish allegations and there hasn’t been verification of the allegations in the report at this point.”