But how well do preregistration programs work? Do teens who register to vote actually participate in elections once they turn 18? Two scholars from Duke University, John B. Holbein and D. Sunshine Hillygus, looked into the issue for their 2016 study, “Making Young Voters: The Impact of Preregistration on Youth Turnout,” published in the American Journal of Political Science. Holbein and Hillygus tried to gauge the impact of preregistration by analyzing data collected through the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Population Survey for 2000–2012. They also examined preregistration and voting trends in Florida, which, in 1990, became the first state to implement a preregistration law. The study defines young voters as those between the ages of 18 and 22.
Among the study’s findings:
- Preregistration increases the probability that young voters will participate in elections. The probability that youth will vote increases in states with preregistration laws by an average of 2 percentage points to 13 percentage points, depending on the model the authors used for their analysis.
- In Florida specifically, preregistering increases turnout by 3 percent to 14 percent.
- The impact of preregistration is similar for young Democrats and young Republicans. Preregistration raised voter turnout by about 7.6 percentage points among young Democrats and 7.4 percentage points among young Republicans.
- The impact of preregistration is similar for men and women and for white voters and minority voters. Preregistration raised voter turnout by about 7.3 percentage points among males and 7.4 percentage points among females. It raised voter turnout by about 7.6 percentage points among white voters and 8 percentage points among minorities.
Update: Here’s an earlier study reaching similar conclusions from Michael MacDonald and Matthew Thornburg.