“Supreme Court Case Threatens Representation of Children and Non-Citizens”

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Supreme Court Case Threatens Representation of Children and Non-Citizens

An Analysis of the Potential Impact of Evenwel v. Abbott on Redistricting

Report and Interactive Maps

 

New York, NY, December 2, 2015

 

Population equality is the main criteria for creating legislative districts in the US, but a proposed change could drastically alter how people are counted and how districts are drawn.  On December 8, 2015, the Supreme Court will hear the case of Evenwel v. Abbott, whose plaintiffs argue that legislative districts should be based upon the number of voters or potential voters in each district instead of all residents.

 

Social Explorer’s Andrew Beveridge analyzes the effects of such a change in the report The Threat to Representation for Children and Non-Citizens: An Analysis of the Potential Impact of Evenwel v. Abbott on Redistricting, which is available for download here: http://static.socialexplorer.com/evenwel/Evenwell_Impact_Report.pdf

 

Social Explorer also developed a companion interactive tool (available at http://www.socialexplorer.com/evenwel) to visualize how state legislative and congressional districts would need to change and which groups would be affected.  Explore the maps to see the impact nationwide and zoom in for a close up on your local community.  Link to the tool to engage your readers.

 

“If the Court should rule for the plaintiffs, virtually all legislative districting plans in the United States would need to be redrawn, and children and non-citizens would no longer count towards representation,” said Beveridge.

 

Using the data that would have been available in 2011 to draw districts, Beveridge estimated the effect on every State Legislative and Congressional District in the United States (the 2010 Census and 2006-10 American Community Survey, from which the U.S. Census Bureau tabulates Citizens of Voting Age Population for various ethnic and racial communities at the block group level). These data are also available for download through the interactive tool.

 

Adhering to the widely-used standards for the division of districts (that state legislative districts should be within five percent of the average district size and congressional districts must be equal), the following results were found:

 

  • Nearly half of upper house legislative districts would no longer be of legal size compared to the new eligible-voter based average district size (49.9 percent or 974 of 1951).

  • Over half of the lower house legislative districts would also need to be redrawn (57.2 percent or 2,739 of 4,792).

  • More than two thirds of congressional districts would be beyond two percent of the eligible-voter based average district size (69.7 percent).

  • There would be a substantial power shift away from areas with school age children, Hispanics, Asians and non-Citizens towards areas with older residents, who were more likely citizens and non-Hispanic white

  • The equivalent of almost five congressional seats (4.89) would switch from Democratic to Republican control.

  • There might be even more impact in terms of the concerns of each party as fewer Hispanics and parents with children would have a voice, while the influence of the childless and non-Hispanic communities would grow in power (especially in Texas, New York City, and California).
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