Thad Kousser at IGS:

With the imperfect storm of Citizens United, Super PACs, the Clinton Fundraising Machine, the Trump Fortune, and the Sheldon Adelsons of the world blowing money toward the presidential contenders at hurricane force, 2016 is almost certain to be the most expensive presidential campaign on record. But it may also be the one in which money matters the least.

The rationale behind this proposed paradox is simple: the serious candidates’ fortunes will not be dictated by how much campaign cash they can raise because nearly everyone will have enough money to run, and run hard. With so much money in the system, war chests are not the scarce resource they once were in presidential races. Nearly every candidate already has a sizeable kitty, or can legitimately hope to raise well if they perform well. What this means is that the dynamics of this primary campaign may be far different than they have been in the past, and the impact of money on November’s election will likely be the same non-story that it was in the era of public financing.