How is a political novice poised to win against an incumbent in CA’s 39th assembly district? KPCC considers a number of intriguing theories, including this one:

Did ballot order make a difference?

There is another twist to this race, said Mitchell, who provides data to political candidates from both parties: Bocanegra’s name appeared second on the ballot. The five preceding races on the page featured a Democrat first and a Republican second. Lopez and Bocanegra were both Democrats competing under California’s new top-two system.

“People are still not expecting to see two candidates with the same party in November,” Mitchell said. “If they are Democrats, they are literally going down this page and voting for the first Democrat they see.”

Mitchell looked at six other races where members of the same party faced each other in both the primary and the general election. In each case, the candidate who went from the first position to the second on the ballot garnered a smaller percentage of the vote in the second position.

Be interesting to hear more about this.

UPDATE: The incumbent concedes.