“Of Bouncing Balls and ‘A Big Blue Shift'”

Ned Foley post about his very important empirical research on post-election controversies, and the connection to the VAAG controversy:

It is a fortuitous coincidence that the University of Virginia’s Journal of Law & Politics has just published a piece of mine that shows the relevance of the current vote-counting process in Virginia’s Attorney General election to what might happen if the 2016 presidential election turns on a similar vote-counting process in Virginia.  (The piece was presented at a symposium on “The Voting Wars” that took place last spring at UVa.)

The piece is an analysis of shifts that have occurred in presidential elections between initial returns and final certified margins of victory.  The piece analyzes these shifts for all presidential elections going back to 1960, for potential swing states—including Virginia—as well as all states.  The major takeaway from the piece is that something has changed in the canvassing process since 2000 that makes it significantly more likely that a Democratic candidate for president will be able to gain large number of votes during the canvassing process.


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