“Numbers Show Ohio at Unique Risk of Disputed Presidential Votes”

Must read Ned Foley:

Ohio thus currently stands in a different posture than Florida, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Virginia—the other presidential swing states with a somewhat elevated risk of hosting a dispute over the counting of their presidential ballots. Whereas in these states the Election Night gap between Republican and Democratic candidates would need to be less than 50,000 for the state to be within the margin of litigation, in Ohio the gap could be much larger, perhaps as high as 80,000 or even 100,000 votes. Moreover, it is important to understand the significance of the fact that the margin of litigation in Ohio is growing: whereas in 2004 Kerry could not have expected to overcome an Election Night deficit of 80,000 votes, in 2012 Obama reasonably could have thought that he would have had a decent chance to surmount even this large a deficit (had he needed to). It is as if Ohio, knowing that it is a prime target of a potential disputed presidential election, is expanding the size of the bull’s-eye.

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