“Forecasting the Flashpoints”

Nick Stephanopoulos has posted this draft on SSRN (forthcoming, Harvard Law Review Forum).  Here is the abstract:

In an earlier article, I relied on 2005-2009 data from the American Community Survey (ACS) to analyze the congressional districts that were used in the elections of the 2000s. In this brief addendum, I employ more recent ACS data, covering the 2006-2010 period, to analyze the congressional districts that recently have been drawn for the next decade’s elections. My findings should be a valuable resource for courts, litigants, scholars, and anyone else interested in the geographic makeup of America’s new congressional districts. The overall story is one of substantial continuity, but this headline masks an array of interesting subplots: for instance, the improvement of California’s district plan, the worsening of Maryland, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania’s, and the increase in the number of districts with highly heterogeneous African American populations.

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