From today’s opinion in State of NY v. US Dep’t of Commerce:

Broadly speaking, in this Opinion, the Court reaches three conclusions with respect to Defendants’ motions. First, the Court categorically rejects Defendants’ efforts to insulate Secretary Ross’s decision to reinstate the citizenship question on the 2020 census from judicial review. Contending that Plaintiffs cannot prove they have been or will be injured by the decision, and citing the degree of discretion afforded to Congress by the Enumeration Clause and to the Secretary by statute, Defendants insist that this Court lacks jurisdiction even to consider Plaintiffs’ claims. As the Court will explain, however, that contention flies in the face of decades of precedent from the Supreme Court, the Second Circuit, and other courts. That precedent makes clear that, while deference is certainly owed to the Secretary’s decisions, courts have a critical role to play in entertaining challenges like those raised by Plaintiffs here.

Second, the Court concludes that the citizenship question is a permissible — but by no means mandated — exercise of the broad power granted to Congress (and, in turn, to the Secretary) in the Enumeration Clause of the Constitution. That conclusion is compelled not only by the text of the Clause, which vests Congress with virtually unlimited discretion in conducting the census, but also by historical practice. The historical practice reveals that, since the very first census in 1790, the federal government has consistently used the decennial exercise not only to obtain a strict headcount in fulfillment of the constitutional mandate to conduct an “actual Enumeration,” but also to gather demographic data about the population on matters such as race, sex, occupation, and, even citizenship. Moreover, it reveals that all three branches of the government — including the Supreme Court and lower courts — have blessed this dual use of the census, if not a citizenship question itself. In the face of that history and the broad constitutional grant of power to Congress, the Court cannot conclude that the Secretary lacks power under the Enumeration Clause to ask a question about citizenship on the census.

Third, although the Secretary has authority under the Enumeration Clause to direct the inclusion of a citizenship question on the census, the Court concludes that the particular exercise of that authority by Secretary Ross may have violated NGO Plaintiffs’ rights to equal protection of the laws under the Due Process Clause of the Fifth Amendment. That is, assuming the truth of NGO Plaintiffs’ allegations and drawing all reasonable inferences in their favor — as the Court must at this stage of the proceedings — they plausibly allege that Secretary Ross’s decision to reinstate the citizenship question on the 2020 census was motivated by discriminatory animus and that its application will result in a discriminatory effect. As discussed below, that conclusion is supported by indications that Defendants deviated from their standard procedures in hastily adding the citizenship question; by evidence suggesting that Secretary Ross’s stated rationale for adding the question is pretextual; and by contemporary statements of decisionmakers, including statements by the President, whose reelection campaign credited him with “officially” mandating Secretary Ross’s decision to add the question right after it was announced.

The net effect of these conclusions is that Defendants’ motions to dismiss are granted in part and denied in part. In particular, Plaintiffs’ claims under the Enumeration Clause — which turn on Secretary Ross’s power rather than his purposes — must be and are dismissed. By contrast, their claims under the APA (which Defendants seek to dismiss solely on jurisdictional and justiciability grounds) and the Due Process Clause — which turn at least in part on Secretary Ross’s purposes and not merely on his power — may proceed.

(h/t Sam Levine)